The Quest for the Ring Express (Legacy)

The Denver Nuggets Shut Down and Defeat the Toronto Raptors 109-100 and Allen Iverson: What Could Have Been, Part 3

2008-03-24T22:17:00.000-07:00

In a game where neither the Denver Nuggets nor the Toronto Raptors had a playmaking identity, the Nuggets trailed most of the way but made a few great defensive stops late and defeated the Raptors in Toronto 109-100. Raptor star PF Chris Bosh, back from knee problems that kept him out of 5 straight road games, all of which were losses for the Raptors, made too many assists and not enough scores. He was too unselfish. Denver playmaking was about as spread out among all players as much as you will ever see. If you try to beat the Nuggets while neither team has established playmakers, you are very likely to lose. The Nuggets love to use their huge talent bank in these kinds of games. Teams such as the Suns, the Rockets, and the Spurs would never be foolish enough to attempt to defeat the Nuggets without an offense with established playmakers. The Nuggets are the kings of scoring a lot of points against average and below average defenses while operating with no playmaking identity and with an almost totally unplanned offense. In other words, the Nuggets are the Kings of the local recreation center court.

The Raptors also, who are one of the best NBA jump shooting teams, and also one of the best 3-point shooting teams, need their best two playmaking guards to make at least half their assists, but in this game, PG Juan Calderon and PG T.J. Ford combined for just 10 of the 27 assists that Toronto made. More disturbing for the Raptors is that they are about dead last in the NBA in total assists.

So with the Raptors you have a team that shoots well but doesn’t make plays well, a combination that almost makes your head spin. Oh wait, the Nuggets are another team like that, so no wonder my head spins a lot while I watch the games and report on the team. If you are keeping score, the Raptors are only the 10th best offense in the NBA adjusted for pace, while the Nuggets are the 11th best offense. Two peas in a pod, actually.

If the Nuggets are scoring more than 105 points a game and they are about 3rd out of 30 teams in gross scoring, then why do I spend so much time complaining that the team lacks this, that, and the other thing offensively? Because the Nuggets’ offense is very easy for the best teams in general, and for especially the best defensive teams in particular, to shut down.

So when you hear in the days ahead “No one wants to play the Nuggets in the playoffs, because this team is just plain dangerous,” don’t believe it. Teams like the Rockets, the Hornets, and the Lakers will be hoping to draw the Nuggets in the playoffs, because they know first hand how the Nuggets offense is built on a flimsy foundation, and can be severely throttled relatively easily with the extra motivation that comes from playing in the playoffs. Meanwhile, they don’t want to play the Warriors, who have a clear playmaking identity spearheaded by Baron Davis, and who demonstrated how dangerous such a well designed offense can be when they upset the Dallas Mavericks last year.

Neither the Nuggets nor the Raptors turned it over much in this game. The Nuggets, who are turning it over much less now that Iverson is running the point more often and running isolation scoring attempts less often, made just 7 turnovers in this game, while the Raptors made 11.

The game predictably started with the lineup that Karl has worshiped this year: Anthony Carter PG, Allen Iverson SG, Carmelo Anthony SF, Kenyon Martin PF, and Marcus Camby C. It has been rare for this starting lineup to be quick off the tip-off, and this game was no exception. The Raptors got off to a small but clear 15-10 lead half way through the 1st quarter. Since at least the start of 2008, the Nuggets have almost always looked clunky offensively and inept defensively in the early going, and it has often taken until J.R. Smith comes in before the juices start flowing and the offense shifts into high gear. The Nuggets made only 1 assist in the first 9 minutes of the game.

The Nuggets looked downright sleepy during an 8-2 Raptors run late in the 1st, before Smith came in; it was 23-14 Raptors with about 3 minutes left in the 1st. J.R. Smith finally came in at this juncture, ready to start cutting into the early Nuggets deficit as he has done in many games before.

With the score 35-18, Smith made his first three with less than a minute left in the 1st. Smith also drove to the hoop with a couple of seconds left on a fast break and was fouled and he made both free throws. Smith’s speed and intensity began to pick up the relatively sluggish and chronically unpredictable offense, and the uninspired defense, from the moment he came into the game. After Smith came in, the Nuggets stopped settling for jump shots too much and started cutting into the Toronto lead. After Smith went out late in the 2nd quarter, the Raptors started adding to their lead again.

Although Smith was no where near as successful in the 2nd half as he was in the 1st, he put the Nuggets on the right track offensively to eventually win this game. Meanwhile, Anthony Carter played poorly, both on offense and to some extent on defense. There is only so much magic you can get out of a player who has never been regarded a starter in the NBA until George Karl decided that everyone else was wrong.

I think I know another reason besides Smith not being in there why the Nuggets start badly almost every game. It’s because Carter is not a true starting PG in the NBA, and because Iverson uses the 1st quarter to feel everything out, including his team, the other team, and the referees, so that then he can decide how to divide his efforts between PG and SG the rest of the way. Iverson often looks strangely hesitant in the early going, which matches my theory.

At the half, it was 54-46 Raptors, as they shot 57% and the Nuggets only 41% in the 1st half. By the end of the game though, the Nuggets would almost catch the Raptors in shooting %, and they ended up beating the Raptors at their own game, three-point shooting, as they made 11/22 threes while Toronto only managed to make 8/24. Iverson was an amazing 5/8 from beyond the arc, and Smith was 2/4.

As the game went along, Kenyon Martin more and more put the Nuggets on the right track defensively. Martin was guarding Chris Bosh most of the time and his defending was outstanding. K-Mart’s shooting varies substantially from game to game, but overall it’s been outstanding this season as well. But the whole Nuggets squad came out in the 2nd half with defensive energy, while the Raptors were mostly standing around.

The Nuggets spent the whole 3rd quarter gradually eliminating the Raptors lead. Carmelo Anthony started hitting midrange jumpers, Iverson started hitting fade aways and making layups off picks, and J.R. Smith was busy doing “little things” like chasing down loose balls and taking a charge. It was 73-71 after three quarters.

Early in the 4th quarter, Iverson and the Nuggets in general started hitting a bunch of threes, which gave them an 85-80 lead with about 8 minutes to play. However, the Raptors scored the next 8, as the Nuggets overdid the three points shooting attempts. But Melo was still hitting, and with 5 1/2 minutes left, it was 89-88 Nuggets. Martin tied up Bosh with about 5 to play. Then Bosh was blocked by Martin, but committed his 5th foul by coming down on Bosh.

An Jose Calderon three with 3:45 left made it 95-94 Raptors. J.R. Smith was then way off on an extremely long three attempt. Calderon then tried another three and missed, and Martin snagged the rebound. Then with about 3 minutes to go, Carmelo Anthony jabbed stepped and moved in on SF Jamario Moon and made a sweet short jumper; it was 96-95 Nuggets. But then SG Anthony Parker from the left corner swished a three, for 98-96 Raptors with 2:36 left. Then Parker fouled Iverson, who made both free throws, which tied the game. Then Moon tried a three and missed. Then Iverson made a cross court pass to Melo, who was fouled by Jamario Moon. Melo made both free throws, so it was 100-98 Nuggets with 1:50 to go.

Late in the fourth quarter, it was all Nuggets, as Kenyon Martin led the almost total shut down of the easy to shut down Raptors offense. (See, it works the other way too sometimes.). The ultimate defensive highlight was when Kenyon Martin literally stole the ball away from Chris Bosh, who was dribbling too high on the baseline with 1:40 left. The Raptors would never recover from that. Iverson then passed to Melo in the left post, and Melo looked like he was going to shoot over Moon, but he changed his mind and fired back out to Iverson who was at the center of the three point arc. Iverson fired the dagger that killed the Raptors; it was 103-98 Nuggets with 1:17 left.

The Raptors were still confused offensively. That’s right, they didn’t have a playmaking identity, you know this stuff now. So Kenyon Martin himself intercepted an almost aimless pass by Parker near the paint and ran off on a fast break the other way. He was fouled and made 2 free throws, for 105-98 Nuggets with a minute to play. The Nuggets also got possession, because a clear path violation was called. Moon knocked the ball away from Carmelo Anthony, leading to a breakaway dunk, but the Nuggets were still leading 105-100 with 45 seconds to play. Then the Nuggets used most of the shot clock, and the Raptors defense broke down enough for Melo to get open moving into the paint for a running jumper, which iced the game. The fancy dragons were all dead and the Nuggets’ playoff hopes were still alive.

ALLEN IVERSON WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN: PART 3
Allen Ezail Iverson was born in Hampton, Virginia, on June 7, 1975 to a 15-year old single woman, Ann Iverson. His father, Allen Broughton, skipped out on the family and he and his sister Brandy, born 1979, were left in the care of their mother Ann. In 1991, Allen Iverson, Brandy and their mother welcomed a new addition to the family, Leisha, who was very ill, which added to the family bills. By the time Leisha was born, Iverson at the age of 16 was often responsible for taking care of his younger sisters, which was especially difficult with Leisha, who suffered frequent seizures. Mounting medical bills pushed the family further in debt. Iverson had an extremely poor childhood, one often without the basic necessities like electricity, heat or water.

Iverson went to Bethel High in Hampton from 1990-1994. In Part 2, we looked closely at Iverson’s junior and senior years at this school. Now you know that while he was running the basketball and the football teams during those two years, and winning State Championships in both sports in the process, he was also teaming up with his Mom to take care of his two sisters, one of them with frequent seizures. The house that Iverson grew up in lay on top of the city’s sewer pipes. Whenever they burst, Allen’s floor would be coated with sewage.

Iverson’s biological father remained in Connecticut where the family lived before Allen was born. He never played a role in his life, and he was in jail from time to time, including from a jail sentence for stabbing a former girlfriend. Shortly after Allen’s birth his maternal grandmother passed away. The family was continuously broke to one extent or another. Due to unpaid bills, the house was often without electricity and even sometimes water. Iverson once hinted that his Mother sometimes engaged in black market activities to earn badly needed money.

It wasn’t just Ann, Allen, Brandy, and Leisha though; there was another member of the household. Ann’s boyfriend and Iverson’s de facto father, Michael Freeman, had been in and out of jail for most of his life. After a car accident made Freeman unemployed in 1991, a desperate for money Freeman was caught and convicted for drug possession with intent to distribute. Freeman never bought bling; he paid family bills with his black market income. Iverson has remained proud of Freeman through the years. "He never robbed nobody," said Iverson once. "He was just tryin’ to feed his family. It would kill him to come from jail and find out how his family was living. One time he came home and just sat down and cried."

Did you ever wonder who the first person was who taught a young Allen Iverson basketball? To tell him that basketball was his best bet rather than football? To give him the confidence needed to get him to work hard and to excel at basketball? Was it a hot shot agent or well off basketball camp entrepreneur? Was it someone who later got a huge money book deal or movie deal? Was it a famous retired coach or former player?

No, it was none of these. Both Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson come from serious ghettos, the kind where there is a truly large amount of violent crime and black market drug dealing. Because a serious ghetto is where Iverson comes from, it was a ghetto person who started Iverson’s basketball career. It was Michael Freeman, a felon but a striving and meaning well Iverson family benefactor in the time of need. Iverson’s mother enrolled him in a little league type basketball practice program, but the young Allen Iverson was more of a football fan. It was Michael Freeman who pushed Iverson away from football and to basketball.

On Valentines Day 1993, Iverson was connected with a fracas at the Spare Times Bowling Center in the city of Hampton, Virginia. He had a few weeks earlier finished leading the Bethel High football team to the State Championship and he was in the process of leading the basketball squad to the State Championship. Everyone knew Iverson, some were jealous, and a few wanted to ruin the reputation of the young sports hero who came from the wrong neighborhood, the neighborhood where you can buy illegal drugs, and the neighborhood where no sane person would walk down the street at night. I guess they thought there was something unjust about someone who came from such a terrible neighborhood being such a school hero. Surely someone from a good neighborhood should be the hero, right? Or so they thought.

So Iverson and a group of his black teammates went to the bowling ally to unwind from basketball, and to celebrate the recent historical football win. They were loud and were asked to quiet down several times. Eventually, Iverson’s group and another group of white youths started shouting at each other. Not long into the shouting, a big fight erupted, pitting the black youths against the white youths. There has never been agreement about many of the specifics of the fight, especially specifics on what role if any Allen Iverson played. At one extreme, the prosecutors claimed that Iverson was fully involved and that he threw a chair at a girl and another chair at an employee. At the other extreme, others including Iverson claim Iverson was not involved at all.

PROSECUTOR’S ACCOUNT
Prosecutors ironically used a Civil War-era statute designed to protect blacks from lynchings to charge a group of black teens with mob violence. Seventeen-year-old Iverson was tried as an adult, convicted of “maiming by mob,” and sentenced to five years for throwing a chair at a girl. The judge, who was friends with one of the victim’s family, first denied them bail and then sentenced all four to 5 years in prison

Witnesses unaligned with either of the two groups testified that Iverson threw the chair at the girl. But at least according to prosecutors, no one heard Allen Iverson being called a nigger. Kristi Alligood, one of the witnesses, testified: "During a break in the fight, the girl went up to one of the black guys and said ‘Why do you have to make this racial?’ He [Iverson] just pressed two fingers against her face and pushed her away."

A bowling center employee testified that Iverson used a different chair to hit him in the head as well.

The prosecutor, a life-long NAACP member, pointed out that none of the blacks in the fight wanted to pursue charges, and that there were several black witnesses joining white witnesses identifying Iverson as the main culprit.

IVERSON AND HIS SUPPORTERS ACCOUNT
Iverson and his supporters maintain his innocence to this day. They claim that he left the alley as soon as the trouble began. Evidence against Iverson at trial was limited to witness statements only. Iverson could not be seen on an amateur video tape of the incident, and he claims he left the alley as soon as the trouble began. "For me to be in a bowling alley where everybody in the whole place know who I am and me be crackin’ people upside the head with chairs and think nothin’ gonna happen?" asked Iverson not long after the incident. "That’s crazy! And what kind of a man would I be to hit a girl in the head with a damn chair? I wish at least they’d said I hit some damn man."

Allen’s supporters were enraged that only four people were charged after the fight, all of them black. They were upset with the media’s allegedly biased coverage of the incident. And they claim the whole thing started when one of the white boys called Iverson a "nigger". "It’s strange enough that police waded through a huge mob of fighting people and came out with only blacks, and the one black that everybody knew," said Golden Frinks, crisis coordinator for the National Association for Advancement of Colored People. "But people thought they’d get a slap on the wrist and that would be the end of it." But the little fight in the bowling ally resulted in large 5-year prison sentences.

I remember at the time cracking jokes to myself about how Virginia is the kind of state where you might get a year in the slammer for littering, or two years for allowing your dog to take a dump in a park, or three years for driving with a suspended registration, but with a valid license and insurance. You get the idea; Virginia was a state you wouldn’t want to live in if you thought there was even a 1 in 100 chance that you would make a mistake that would constitute breaking a law. Live anywhere but Virginia. Virginia is not for lovers; it’s for jailers.

But this strange story gets stranger. Virginia’s first black Governor, Doug Wilder, granted Iverson a conditional release from the long sentence after four months behind bars because he became convinced that Iverson had been treated unfairly. While granting clemency, Wilder told Iverson to stay off the courts and to concentrate on receiving his high school diploma. Some time after this clemency nullified the sentence, the conviction itself was overturned on appeal. Therefore, what happened at the Spare Times Bowling Center in Hampton Virginia on Valentine’s Day 1993 remains both factually and legally uncertain to this day.

Iverson was supposed to have been a Kentucky Wildcat, but due to his incarceration, Iverson missed out on a scholarship to Kentucky University.

He studied while in jail, and after 5 months behind bars, Iverson was set free. In the meantime, Ann Iverson went to Georgetown University to convince Coach John Thompson to be her son's guardian, to be both his coach and a father figure. Once Thompson saw Iverson's talent, he accepted, and Iverson was offered a full scholarship to Georgetown University, which of course Iverson accepted.

But no matter what happened after the Valentine’s Day incident, Iverson was now destined to be trapped permanently in a no-man’s land between fully integrated into and accepted by society at large, and being an untouchable outcast. If you are a convicted felon, your pro sports career is pretty much over whether or not it has ever gotten underway. Iverson was a convicted felon, but then he was not one. So he was still technically qualified to become a basketball star, but he would never be fully accepted by basketball fans, including fans of his own teams. Fans in Philadelphia often yelled out nasty slurs when Iverson was near the sideline close to them. For example, they would yell out “Get a haircut,” or “How are the crack sales going?”

Do not forget these details of what happened when Allen Iverson was young. We will return to these things in later parts. For example, this series will explain how Iverson’s upbringing in general and the 1993 Valentine’s Day incident and what resulted from it in particular helped start a fire in 1997 that resulted in Iverson’s course through the NBA to be substantially different from what should have and could have been. The Denver Nuggets, their fans, and to some extent Allen Iverson himself are all still damaged from what the 1993 Valentine’s Day incident played a huge role in causing. In future parts, we will explore the chain of events that began with that stupid incident in the bowling center in Hampton, Virginia and that end with the present day Nuggets playing an offense that is clearly inferior to those of the top teams of the West.

PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 45%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 80%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 53%. However, at the same time the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, and there is no 9th playoff seed. By far the main way the Nuggets can make the playoffs is by beating out the Golden State Warriors for the 8th and final seed in the West.

So it seems right now that the Warriors and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last playoff spot in the West. Both of them are considered likely to make the playoffs in statistical terms, but most likely one of them will fail to make the playoffs. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Warriors are favored over the Nuggets to get the 8th spot.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to full speed, especially since George Karl is notorious for taking forever to work a player he is not sold on back into the rotation following an injury. So it’s still unknown whether Atkins is ready to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs, and whether Karl will give him enough minutes if he is ready. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a somewhat lower percentage chance than 53% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs, probably about 10% lower.

In summary, the Lakers, the Rockets, the Hornets, the Spurs, and the Jazz are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, and the Suns are virtual locks. Dirk Nowitzki was injured during Sunday action and this shocking development will endanger the Mavericks playoff hopes, how much so will depend on the details of the injury, especially the amount of time that Nowitzki will be unavailable. The Warriors are favored over the Nuggets for the final, 8th spot. The Rockets have become total locks now, despite the loss of Yao Ming for the season, thanks to their 22-game winning streak. The Suns are still in some trouble, due to their poor trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, but they are in less trouble after their key early March wins at home over the Spurs and the Warriors.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
1. Lakers 58-24
2. Rockets 55-27
3. Hornets 55-27
4. Jazz 54-28
5. Suns 54-28
6. Spurs 53-29
7. Mavericks 52-30
8. Warriors 50-32

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
9. Nuggets 50-32

The Warriors are now 1 1/2 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last playoff spot. Golden State has a slightly more difficult schedule than the Nuggets do the rest of the way, making this race extremely close and too close to call. The Nuggets and Warriors have each won one game in the head to head series so far and there are two games left.

Now that the Nuggets are 1 1/2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are very likely out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain slightly more likely to make the playoffs than do the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are a little more likely than the Warriors to get the last spot. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT
Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM
Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM
Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM

NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT
Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM
Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM
Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM

At this point the odds for whether the Nuggets will make the playoffs are still close to 50%, creating the maximum possible drama. It is going to be a very close call. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 8-4 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 7-5 will probably not be good enough and 6-6 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 9-3 in their last 12 games.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is extremely unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 8%. The odds that the Utah Jazz will win the Northwest are 92% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch.

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME
Allen Iverson: He suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. He remains probable for upcoming games.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 36 straight games. He is out until at least April, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season.

RAPTORS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Jorge Garbajosa: Ankle and leg injury; out for the season.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 24, 2008

The Nuggets are under a GREY ALERT, on account of the following problems.

NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES
1. Nene illness 14 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
None.

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
NOTICE: THIS SECTION NEW AND IMPROVED as of March 19, 2008
EXTREME PLAYING TIME DECISIONS CONSTITUTING AN ERROR
At any given time, Karl may be doing one or more of the following:

1. He may be imposing a draconian penalty by completely benching a player who should not be benched unless the Nuggets want to shoot themselves in the foot or the head.
2. He may be severely under playing a player, either due to an excessive penalty for some mistake the player has made, a miscalculation of the benefits and costs of that player, or due to subjective factors up to and including extreme dislike of a player and a desire to make sure that the player is removed from the team in the off-season.
3. He may be over playing and over relying on one or more very experienced and talented veterans. At the same time, he will be approximately the most stingy Coach in the League with respect to playing time allocated to non-starters.

The new system we will use will employ the ranges of playing time minutes that are considered reasonable for the Nuggets. These are plenty large enough ranges to allow for plenty of coaching discretion, but if the playing time is outside of these ranges, it is clearly a coaching error:

Allen Iverson: 32-42
Carmelo Anthony: 32-42
Marcus Camby: 28-38
Kenyon Martin: 28-38
J.R. Smith: 22-34
Linas Kleiza: 16-28
Eduardo Najera: 16-24
Chucky Atkins: 14-22
Anthony Carter: 12-20
Yakhouba Diawara: 0-16
Taurean Green: 0-10
Steven Hunter: 0-10

Playing times lower than the minimum or higher than the maximum are coaching errors, and are charged at the rate of 1 alert system point for each 2 minutes of error. If a player is injured or sick to any extent, then this rule does not apply. Nor will the rule apply in games in which there is garbage time, except in the case of players who are playing well below their minimum minutes on a heavily repeated basis.

EXTREME PLAYING TIMES CONSTITUTING COACHING ERROR FOR THIS GAME:

Chucky Atkins: Underplayed, 4 points
Linas Kleiza: Underplayed, 2 points

Anthony Carter: Overplayed, 1 point
Allen Iverson: Overplayed, 1 point
Marcus Camby: Overplayed, 1 point

This toll is a moderate for Karl 9 points; it can get much worse than this, up to about 35 alert points.

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this could be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, usually reduces the damage. But Iverson does not control everything of course, and the lack of any real consistency in how the offense is run leads to damaging problems that can appear at any time. But these problems are much more likely to appear just when the Nuggets can least afford them, when they are playing one of the best teams in the NBA.

At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Carmelo Anthony to some extent and Anthony, one of the top two scorers on the team, was not getting the ball enough. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding. But the problem has shown signs of coming back again lately. If that problem appears when the Nuggets are playing an elite team, the Nuggets’ chances of winning the game go down substantially. The problem recently appeared in the March 18 Pistons game, and it helped to cause the Nuggets to lose.

Another big problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the main playmaker in the game: Iverson, Carter, Atkins, or some combination. More importantly, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes. If Iverson has decided to run the point, as he always does to one extent or another, he counts as a point guard whether he is labeled one by the coaching staff or not.

In general, and as always in the Karl era, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. True, they have plays they commonly run on the fly, but the players obviously don’t know about them in advance; they happen randomly. The offense is pretty much an unscripted, recreation department pick-up game style of offense.

How good of a defense you have is determined more by effort and skill than by strategy. For defense, strategy and tactics are less important than on offense. But they are still important, especially in a close game versus a good team. One thing that determines how well a team can defend is whether it has matched up the best and most appropriate players to guard the various offensive threats of the other team. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The correct choice usually will vary during each game. The decision is frequently made on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. But despite the fact that strategy and tactics are relatively important, the most important things with respect to defending is overall effort, hustle, anticipation of where the play is going, skill in avoiding unnecessary fouls, and ability to rotate off screens and picks.

This games’ toll due to the lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 6

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 2 Points.

TOTAL ALERT PROBLEM POINTS: 31, which constitutes GREY ALERT.

GREY ALERT (30-44): There are relatively minor problems leading to a small threat against the success of the entire season. It is still possible to beat quality teams, but it will be more unusual to beat a quality team, because about 1/4 of what would have been wins against good teams will now be losses. There should be no impact with respect to medium and poor teams.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS
The description of the alert status the Nuggets are in is a worst case scenario one; it assumes that the other team is in GREEN or NO alert. All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any. We use 15 alert status points as constituting one unit of difference.

OBSERVATIONS ON NUGGETS STATUS
The toll from players playing above the reasonable maximum or below the reasonable minimum was relatively light. J.R. Smith played so well Friday night in New Jersey and was playing so well in this game also that it was not possible for Karl to short his minutes like he usually does. For one thing, he would have been looked at as being insane by the assistant coaches had he done that in this game. The general offensive problem ticked up a little in importance, assists were sparse and the team dangerously lacked an offensive identity. But the Raptors lacked one also, as PF Chris Bosh made too many assists for the overall good of the team.

Atkins has been removed from the unusual player slump designation. The best news of the month for the Nuggets is that Atkins has, in effect, finally arrived in Denver. This might give the Nuggets just enough 3-point shooting firepower to keep up with the Warriors in the race for the final playoff spot, as long as Atkins gets playing time.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but that never happened. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. However, since all other injuries are history, and since J.R. Smith has played so well that he is neither benched nor severely shortchanged of minutes these days, the Nuggets might be able to stay in the NO alert to GREY alert range, avoiding being disadvantaged to all but the lucky and perfectly managed elite teams.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do

OUTSIDE FACTORS
Home Court Advantage: 4 Points
Extra Rest Advantage, if any: 4 Points
Lower Alert Level: 1 Point for each 4 Points of lesser alert level
Nothing to Play for due to Circumstances: As circumstances warrant.

IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME
The Raptors had just 1 relatively unimportant player unavailable, and they have last year’s Coach of the Year, so it is believed that their alert status was high NO Alert or low GREEN alert. The Raptors were therefore about 1 alert level or 15 points better off than the Nuggets, which constitutes about a 4-point advantage. The Raptors were home, giving them another 4-point edge or so. Neither team was playing on back to back nights. The Raptors were favored by about 8 points due to outside factors. The Nuggets won the game by 9, and we can confidently say that the Nuggets were playing so well that it would have been a full scale rout were it not for the outside factors.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Raptors 9
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Raptors 8

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 20
Raptors Non-Starters Points: 21

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 9
Raptors Non-Starters Rebounds: 3

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 8
Raptors Non-Starters Assists: 7

THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME
There was no garbage time. Both coaches were relatively light on using non-starters in this game. Both Coaches played 8 players for 10 minutes or more, and 9 players for 6 minutes or more.

It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. That he did so for several games in a row recently seems too good to be true now. In this game, Karl partly failed to meet his responsibility to see if Chucky Atkins can be readied for the last few games and the playoffs. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery and when Karl refused to name Iverson as the official point guard. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently even Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs. So Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets’ only hope at the position in the playoffs and in the stretch run to make the playoffs for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is inconsistent so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, and so Carter still has to play a lot of minutes also.

The Raptors’ non-starters won a 1-point victory over the Nuggets’ non-starters 21-20. The Nuggets’ non-starters heavily out rebounded the Raptors’ non-starters 9-3. Although the Nuggets lacked playmaking identity, so did Toronto, and at least the Nuggets’ non-starters had a very unusually large number of assists, and they 1 more assist than did the Raptors’ non-starters.

STARTERS
Points: Nuggets 89 Raptors 79
Rebounds: Raptors 38 Nuggets 32
Assists: Raptors 20 Nuggets 13

The Nuggets starting five beat the Raptors starters 89-79. But the Raptors’ starting five out rebounded the Nuggets starters 38-32 and they were ahead of the Nuggets starters in playmaking by 20-13.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-RAPTORS PLAYER RATINGS
Ratings of 50+ indicate superstar power performers.
Ratings of 40-49 indicate star power performers
Ratings of 30-39 indicate power performers.
Ratings of 20-29 indicate key role player performers.
Ratings of 10-19 indicate ordinary role player performers.
Ratings of 0-9 indicate unimportant players

NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Allen Iverson: Game 53.8 Season 41.4
Carmelo Anthony: Game 47.2 Season 39.2
Kenyon Martin: Game 26.3 Season 23.3
Marcus Camby: Game 21.4 Season 32.6
J.R. Smith: Game 20.7 Season 17.2
Anthony Carter: Game 10.9 Season 20.0
Eduardo Najera: Game 10.1 Season 13.2
Linas Kleiza: Game 8.9 Season 18.2
Chucky Atkins: Game 0.6 Season 8.9

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness

Chucky Atkins: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

RAPTORS PLAYER RATINGS
Chris Bosh: Game 38.7 Season 37.4
Jamario Moon: Game 37.2 Season 19.6
Jose Calderon: Game 33.0 Season 29.2
Anthony Parker: Game 23.3 Season 21.9
Andrea Bargnani: Game 22.4 Season 15.8
T.J. Ford: Game 20.5 Season 22.3
Rasho Nesterovic: Game 16.3 Season 14.0
Jason Kapono: Game 0.9 Season 11.3
Carlos Delfino: Game 0.6 Season 16.4

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the strength and defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Nene, Najera, and Diawara.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
The most productive player on the court was Allen Iverson for the Nuggets, who was a superstar power performer. Carmelo Anthony was just behind the Answer and he was a star power performer for the Nuggets.

The Nuggets had no ordinary power performers, while the Raptors had 3 of those: Chris Bosh, Jamario Moon, and Jose Calderon.

In sum, among the 5 players who were power performers or better, the Raptors had 3 and the Nuggets had 2. But Iverson and Anthony were so extremely productive that combined together they practically equaled the combined production of Bosh, Moon, and Calderon.

For the Nuggets, the two most productive players ordinarily were not only the most productive in this game, but they were above their already sky high averages. Iverson was about 30% above normal to go into the stratosphere and Anthony was about 20% better than normal.

Key role player Kenyon Martin was about 1/10 better than normal and he made an incredible takeaway steal against Chris Bosh with very little time left in the game to help ice the game in favor of Denver. J.R. Smith was about 1/5 more productive than usual with moderate minutes.

But these four, Iverson, Anthony, Smith, and Martin, were the only 4 Nuggets who were more productive than usual in this game. 5 others were less productive than usual to one extent or another.

Power performer on the season Marcus Camby was only a little more than 60% as productive as usual. Ordinary role player Eduardo Najera was only about 75% as productive as usual.

Two other role players, Anthony Carter and Linas Kleiza, were way below normal; Carter was only about 55% as productive as usual and Kleiza was half as productive as usual.

In very limited minutes, Atkins was grossly less productive than normal although a normal has not really been established for him due to an extremely long injury absence.

Fortunately for the Nuggets, Iverson, Anthony, Martin and Smith stepped up enough to offset the serious down games of 5 other Nuggets.

By far the biggest upside for the Raptors was borderline key role player SF Jamario Moon, who by doubling his normal production became a power performer. The Raptors’ best player, high end power performer PF Chris Bosh, was almost exactly normal.

PG Jose Calderon, a borderline power performer, was about 1/10 more productive than usual, making him a definite power performer in this game. C Bargnani was about 40% more productive than usual, which made him a key role player for this game.. Key role player SG Parker was about 1/10 better than normal, while plain role player C Nesterovic was about 1/5 better than normal,

Key role player PG T.J. Ford was slightly below normal.

Lower level role players SF Kapono and SG Delfino were almost completely unproductive, which went a long way to causing the Raptors to lose this game. The Raptors had 6 important players above normal and only 1 important player slightly below normal. But they got almost nothing from either Kapono or Delfino, which hurt them a lot.

The Nuggets had 4 players above normal while the Raptors had 6. The Nuggets had 5 players below normal while the Raptors had only 2. But Iverson, Anthony, Martin, and Smith did some huge stepping up in this game to win it for the Nuggets.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-RAPTORS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Carmelo Anthony, Den 1.311
2. T.J. Ford, Tor 1.281
3. Allen Iverson, Den 1.251
4. Jose Calderon, Tor 1.031
5. Chris Bosh, Tor 0.921
6. Jamario Moon, Tor 0.907
7. J.R. Smith, Den 0.863
8. Andrea Bargnani, Tor 0.862
9. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.692
10. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.685
11. Rasho Nesterovic, Tor 0.652
12. Anthony Parker, Tor 0.630
13. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.561
14. Marcus Camby, Den 0.549
15. Anthony Carter, Den 0.495
16. Jason Kapono, Tor 0.069
17. Chucky Atkins, Den 0.086…Atkins played only 7 minutes.
18. Carlos Delfino, Tor 0.086…Delfino played only 7 minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The best player on the court was Carmelo Anthony and he was a star-plus. There were two other star-plus players, T.J. Ford for the Raptors and Allen Iverson for the Nuggets.

Since there were no ordinary stars, there were those 3 players who were stars or better, one Raptor and two Nuggets.

The Raptors had 3 outstanding players, Calderon, Bosh, and Moon, while the Nuggets had none.

Smith was very good for the Nuggets and Bargnani was very good for the Raptors.

Martin and Kleiza were mediocre for the Nuggets not counting their made you miss type defending. Nesterovic and Parker were mediocre for the Raptors.

Najera and Camby were poor for the Nuggets not counting their made you miss type defending.

Carter was very poor for the Nuggets.

There were 3 total disasters. Kapono for the Raptors was a total disaster in limited minutes. Delfino for the Raptors was a total disaster in very limited minutes. Atkins for the Nuggets was a total disaster in very limited minutes.

Among the 10 players who were mediocre or worse, the Nuggets had 6 and the Raptors 4. But with Iverson, Anthony, Martin, and Smith working their magic, the Nuggets snatched victory from the jaws of likely defeat.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown

J.R. Smith: +12
Linas Kleiza: +12
Eduardo Najera: +12
Marcus Camby: +9
Allen Iverson: +6
Carmelo Anthony: -1
Anthony Carter: -1
Kenyon Martin: -5

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 7, Team 0, Anthony 3, Atkins 0, Camby 0, Carter 0, Iverson 4, Kleiza 0, Martin 0, Najera 0, Smith 0

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 20, Anthony 4, Atkins 0, Camby 3, Carter 1, Iverson 3, Kleiza 2, Martin 5, Najera 1, Smith 1

Chucky Atkins played 7 minutes and was 0/1 for 0 points, and he made 1 assist.

Anthony Carter played 22 minutes and was 2/5 and 1/2 on 3’s for 5 points, and he made 2 assists, 2 rebounds, and 1 steal.

Marcus Camby played 39 minutes and was 1/4 and 3/4 from the line for 5 points, and he made 15 rebounds, 1 block, and 1 assist.

Eduardo Najera played 18 minutes and was 1/3 and 1/3 on 3’s for 3 points, and he made 3 assists and 3 rebounds.

Linas Kleiza played 13 minutes and was 1/4 and 1/4 on 3’s for 3 points, and he made 4 rebounds and 2 assists.

Kenyon Martin played 38 minutes and he was 4/8 and 2/2 from the line for 10 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, 2 steals, and 2 assists.

J.R. Smith played 24 minutes and was 5/12, 2/4 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 14 points, and he made 2 assists, 2 rebounds, and 1 steal.

Allen Iverson played for most of the game, 43 minutes, and he was 11/16, 5/8 on 3’s, and 9/11 on 3’s for 36 points, and he made 6 assists and 2 rebounds.

Carmelo Anthony played 36 minutes and was 14/28, 1/1 on 3’s, and 4/5 from the line for 33 points, and he made 7 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 assists.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Monday, March 24 in Memphis to play the Grizzlies at 6 pm mountain time. The Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights, while the Grizzlies will not be. So the Grizzlies will enjoy both the home court and the extra rest advantages.

NUGGETS 1 HOME

The Denver Nuggets Avoid Going Over the Cliff by Beating the Nets 125-114 and Allen Iverson: What Could Have Been, Part 2

2008-03-22T23:18:00.000-07:00

J.R. Smith, Linas Kleiza, and Allen Iverson led the offensive charge, and Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin, and Eduardo Najera held down the fort defensively as the Denver Nuggets finally won a game on their 5-game road trip, on their third try. They defeated the reorganizing and lacking in depth New Jersey Nets 125-114. The Nets’ new point guard, Devin Harris and the one they already had, Marcus Williams were both outstanding. The team stars Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson were more than qualified to be considered stars in this game. And Carmelo Anthony was relatively limited. So everything was in place for, as my brother likes to call it, a “stunning upset.”

But the Nuggets have an uncanny ability to pull back from the brink of going over the season is over cliff every time they are standing on the edge of it. They have been doing it every time they come up to the edge of the cliff for the second straight season. Just when you think it is over, that it has to be over in fact, logically, that there has to be a Law of the Universe that it must be over, the Nuggets come roaring back and confound the doom and gloomers, who are the vast majority of fans at this point. This has happened so many times that I was simultaneously expecting the Nuggets to win and to lose this game at the same time. Logic was telling me that they would probably lose, but all the non-logical factors were telling me that the Nuggets would probably win.

It frequently seems to be a non-starter who provides the spark to win the on the edge of the cliff game, and this was no exception. Linas Kleiza scored a point a minute; he was 5/7 on threes and 9/11 overall for 23 points in 23 minutes. J.R. Smith was both scoring and passing the heck out of the ball in minutes that were little more than limited. Smith continued to mix his long range attempts and drives to the hoop almost as well as the Paris chefs mix the ingredients of their main dishes. Do you think there could be something supernatural about the Nuggets and how they win when they appear to have no right to win based on how the team is managed? Me too, but the non-supernatural explanation of sheer talent makes me a lot less nervous, so I usually stay with that one.

Yakhouba Diawara, the Nuggets’ best defending guard, is receding down the memory hole now, not played anymore by George Karl, and the entire improvement in the Nuggets’ defense, which many fans never understood or accepted in the first place, is starting to slip slide away with him. The Nuggets, other than Camby, Martin, Najera, and Smith on occasion, are relapsing to their totally all-out offensive juggernaut style. Whether they will be able to play good defense again when they have to is unknown, and I wouldn’t bet anything important either for or against that.

Carmelo Anthony is no longer the go-to guy offensively for the Nuggets as he was until Allen Iverson came on to the team, not because he is not as good a scorer as he always was, not because Iverson has stolen his shots or his minutes, not because he is not contributing in other ways besides scoring, and not because he has been written out of the offense by Coach George Karl, by Official but Unqualified Court Coach Anthony Carter, or by Unofficial and Qualified Court Coach Allen Iverson. It’s just by sheer accident. When the completely unstructured and unplanned Nuggets offense kicks into high gear, anyone other than the player unofficially and sort of secretly but actually running it, Iverson, the player officially running it, Carter, and J.R. Smith, who can not be denied possessions while playing as well as the best 2-guards in the League these days, can be left in the dust. Pretty much randomly, Anthony can be left with many fewer possessions than he normally and traditionally gets, thus endangering the Nuggets winning the game unless the players getting Melo’s shots make them to the same degree he would.

Fortunately, that is what happened in this game: Smith, Najera, and especially Kleiza were all outstanding scorers in this game. But that problem will come back to haunt the Nuggets when the opponent is too defensively tough for that kind of shooting magic to work, I can assure you. You do not want to downplay Melo in games against weak defenses because while other players will become ineffective to one extent or another against a tough defense, Melo will have roughly the same potential to score against the monster defenses as he does against the weak defenses.

This reminds me of why most fans of the Nuggets have come to agree that Anthony Carter will meltdown in the playoffs assuming the Nuggets ever get there. He is another example of a player who may do very well, even extremely well on occasion, against weak defenses, while dropping through the floor to poor or extremely poor against tough defenses and very well coached teams that can exploit match-ups to render Carter almost useless. In other words, players like Kleiza and Carter can be “blown away” by a very tough defensive team and/or a very competent and intelligent opposing coach. We are already suffering from the double point guard problem and from having Carter of limited value out there to the extent that Iverson is running the point. But as bad as this is, it is doomed to get worse.

So is there a solution to the Anthony Carter doomsday that most Nuggets fans know awaits the Nuggets in the playoffs besides Allen Iverson starting at PG and J.R. Smith or even Yakhouba Diawara starting at shooting guard? Because we know that George Karl will never do either of those lineups unless hell freezes over, as has been explained in previous reports, and is being explained even more thoroughly in the current Special Report series. There is another possible solution, not as good as the others, but still better than no solution at all. But Karl is the kind of coach who prefers no solution to solutions, simply because he is the kind of Coach who doesn’t understand the magnitude of the problems on his team to begin with. Even retired coach television announcers seem to detect big Nuggets problems better than Karl does, which you can tell by listening carefully to their commentaries. When a retired NBA coach color commentator comes to town to broadcast a Nuggets game and the problem is so obvious to him that he remarks about it while broadcasting a nationally televised game, you know it’s a problem. Almost no one makes a comment on national television unless they are absolutely sure about what they are saying. I have heard several commentators mention that the Nuggets’ point guard situation is a huge problem, not something you can wish away like Karl thinks.

The only other possible solution to avoid the Anthony Carter train wreck is to work like crazy to make sure that Chucky Atkins, who was supposed to be the designated point guard, is at least ready to take over from Carter after 1 or 2 or 3 near or total disaster games by Carter in the playoff series. Although Atkins is a poor PG defender while Carter is a little above average, Atkins is a great 3-point shooter and scorer in general, and can get thread the needle type assists against smart defensive teams in situations where Carter would not be able to. But Karl is signaling that he is not responsible for whether Atkins is ready to play in the playoffs or not, by cutting his minutes to close to none in the last 2 games. I hope I am jumping the gun, but I have been fooled so many times on the downside by Karl that I have the perfect right to raise the warning flag whenever I see mismanagement in its very early stage.

A final note on Melo not getting the ball: If Iverson is not officially the point guard, how can he be held responsible for not getting the ball to Melo enough times? He can’t possibly be. Even if he was officially the point guard, there is a chance the Melo not getting the ball enough problem would still be there in lesser force in certain games, unless at least a tiny number of set plays involving Iverson to Melo or Iverson to the 2-guard to Melo were ready to be run.

ALLEN IVERSON: WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN, PART 2

In Part 2 of this series, we will start to look at the history of which position Allen Iverson has played, year by year. We will focus in this part on the earliest years, the high school years. We will eventually review the entire history, including a fascinating look at what happened with Team USA at the 2004 summer Olympics, with none other than Larry Brown calling the shots for Team USA, and none other than Allen Iverson not playing point guard for Brown, as usual.

HISTORY OF ALLEN IVERSON’S DESIGNATED POSITIONS IN FULL SEASONS
Year, Team, Coach, & Iverson’s Position
1992-93 Bethel High Junior, Mike Bailey, Point Guard
1993-94 Bethel High Senior, Mike Bailey, Point Guard
1994-95 Georgetown University Freshman, John Thompson, Point Guard
1995-96 Georgetown University Sophomore, John Thompson, Point Guard
1996-97 Philadelphia 76’ers, Johnny Davis, Point Guard
1997-98 Philadelphia 76’ers, Larry Brown, Point Guard
1998-99 Philadelphia 76’ers, Larry Brown, Shooting Guard
1999-00 Philadelphia 76’ers, Larry Brown, Shooting Guard
2000-01 Philadelphia 76’ers, Larry Brown, Shooting Guard
2001-02 Philadelphia 76’ers, Larry Brown, Shooting Guard
2002-03 Philadelphia 76’ers, Larry Brown, Shooting Guard
2003-04 Philadelphia 76’ers, Randy Ayers and Chris Ford, Shooting Guard
2004-05 Philadelphia 76’ers, Jim O’Brien, Point Guard
2005-06 Philadelphia 76’ers Maurice Cheeks, Point Guard and Shooting Guard
2006-07 Denver Nuggets, George Karl, Shooting Guard
2007-08 Denver Nuggets, George Karl, Shooting Guard

HISTORY OF IVERSON’S DESIGNATED POSITIONS IN SPECIAL GAMES
All-Star Games: Point Guard Iverson was named the starting point guard for the Eastern Conference in the NBA All-Star Game for seven consecutive seasons
2004 Olympics Team: Shooting Guard

Sometimes, those who claim that Iverson can not play the point guard position give the reason that he “can not run the offense.” They claim that he is so aggressive at possessing and scoring the ball, that he would never give himself enough space in his game to run the point effectively. Added to this is the implied rap that Iverson is not intelligent enough in general, or at least not intelligent enough to see the forest instead of just the trees in basketball games.

While watching Iverson at Denver, I have seen the opposite. I have seen him attempt 3-point shots when the Nuggets were striking out from long range and getting killed by the other team in this skill alone. I have seen him do his fade-away jumpers when the refs are not calling all the fouls and seen him pound it inside over and over when they are calling most of the fouls. I have seen him in many games, especially recently, maneuver between the two guard positions like a cat maneuvers in a high place, keeping perfect balance lest he fall to the ground or, in Iverson’s case, lest he err on the side of two much shooting or too much passing. Since Iverson can play both positions at once extremely well, how much sense does it make to claim that Iverson could not play the PG position very well if he were the designated PG? It makes no sense whatsoever.

To say that Iverson can’t properly play the PG position for any reason is dubious, but to say he can’t play the position because he “can not run an offense” is especially lacking in validity. The side which has been brainwashed by Larry Brown and George Karl playing A.I. at the SG position over many years into thinking that Iverson can not play the point frequently uses this vague expression “ability to run an offense,” which is never defined. What exactly do they mean by that? I am afraid that it’s one of those flashy lines that doesn’t really have any meaning. Do they mean that Iverson doesn’t run an offense the way they think it should be run? I think that is it, but lord knows that for every point guard, from Eric Snow to Chris Paul, there is a way to run an offense, and you will be lucky if one or tow point guards in the NBA at any given time closely match your idea of a point guard who knows how to run an offense the way you think they should run one.

Broadly but crucially speaking, basketball coaches must in most cases pick the best guard on the team who can play PG to play that position, which can easily be about half again more important than the SG position for many rosters. Once they have done that, they next have to choose offensive strategies and tactics that make the best use of the skills and talents of the starting five and of 2-3 key bench players in general, and of the starting PG in particular. If you have a high scoring PG as your starter, you set up plays that make it easier for him to score. If you have a low scoring PG, you set up few plays where he is the scorer, and more where other players are the scorers.

It is really not that complicated, but when a Coach like George Karl comes along, who doesn’t think you have to choose the best guard who can play PG as the PG, and who doesn’t think strategies and tactics have much value, you can fall into the trap of thinking that this stuff is more complicated than it is if you are not careful. For those who don’t know what they are doing, relatively simple things can easily get annoyingly difficult surprisingly quickly.

There are many ways to run an offense, and many types of point guards to run the numerous ways. This year, Chris Paul of the Hornets is proving, as other high scoring PGs before him have proved, that it is irrational to think that a high scoring PG makes it impossible or even very difficult to have a well run offense. The Hornets are 7th in pace-adjusted offense, while the Nuggets are only 11th. By the way, the Nuggets were 15th a week ago, but after a week of Iverson playing both positions at once, and playing PG at least as much as Anthony Carter, they have moved up 4 notches. The more Iverson decides to play more like a PG and less like a SG, the better the Nuggets offense is.

Iverson went to Bethel High School in Hampton, Virginia. Bethel is famous for the NBA superstar having attended there. At the point guard position, Allen Iverson led the basketball team to a 28-3 record, a ranking of 25th among all high school basketball teams in the USA Today newspaper, and to earning the Virginia AAA State Championship, the highest honor that a high school basketball team in Virginia can get.

But even that is not all. Astoundingly, in that same year, his junior year at Bethel, Iverson was also the starting quarterback for the football team. And that team won the State Championship as well. Aside from being the starting quarterback, Iverson played in the defensive secondary as needed, and he also returned kickoffs and punts. So aside from mostly quarterbacking Bethel High School's football team to the state championship title, he also played 5 different positions to help his team get to the State Championship: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Safety, Running Back, and Special Teams Punt and Kick Returner.

In the very same year, Iverson ran his basketball team and his football team, and not one but both of those teams won the State Championship! This is at least as impressive as Carmelo Anthony leading his team to winning the NCAA Championship in his one year at Syracuse University. The fact is that Iverson ran both his basketball and his football team so well, that both of them won everything you can possibly win.

How many people know this Iverson history? Very, very few know of it, and that’s how Larry Brown and George Karl like it. They don’t want you to know about this, because they don’t want anyone second guessing their theory that Iverson could never be all that great at running his teams in the NBA. Once Larry Brown and, by extension, George Karl had decided that an NBA team is just too complicated for little old Allen Iverson to operate, they used the obvious fact that he likes to score to partially mothball his skills by putting him in the shooting guard position. But this position is considered by most coaches to be the spot where you put guards who do not have the kinds of passing and offense running skills that Iverson demonstrated to such a high degree in his early years, and that he still demonstrates to this day while he continuously plays both guard positions at once, to one extent or another.

An impressive of list of players have been coached by Mike Bailey. Allen Iverson (Georgetown) headlines a list of nine that went on to play Division I basketball. Others include Tony Rutland (Wake Forest University), Chevy Troutman (University of Pittsburgh), Corey Stewart (University of Virginia & UNC-Wilmington), Chris Jackson (College of Charleston), Taurance Johnson (Florida International), Aaron Sunderland (Cal-State Fullerton), Tahric Gosley (Cleveland State) and Cassin Diggs (University of Pittsburgh).

MIKE BAILEY’S HEAD COACHING EXPERIENCE:
1997 - 2004 Williamsport Area High School in Williamsport, PA
Elite Eight Finish in 2002 Final Record 23 - 7
Elite Eight Finish in 2001 Final Record 27 - 2
Elite Eight Finish in 2000 Final Record 23 - 7
PENNSYLVANIA AAAA STATE CHAMPS in 1999
Final Record 29 - 2 / National Ranking 20th, USA TODAY
Final Overall Record 137 - 32

1994 - 1997 Tullahoma High School in Tullahoma, Tennessee

1985 - 1994 Bethel High School in Hampton, VA
VIRGINIA AAA STATE CHAMPS in 1993
Final Record 28 - 3 / National Ranking 25th, USA TODAY

1979 - 1985 Delaware Valley High School in Milford, PA

MIKE BAILEY’S COACHING HONORS:
* Born 2 Run Pennsylvania Coach (Pennsylvania vs. USA) in 2000
* Pennsylvania Big School Coach of the Year in 1999
* Selected to the Pennsylvania Sports Hall of Fame in 1999
* East Coach (Virginia High School League All-Star Game) in 1993

MIKE BAILEY PLAYERS WHO WERE ALL-STATE SELECTIONS:
* Darrell Blackman, 2003 Second Team, 2002 First Team
* Ayyub Ali, 2001 Second Team
* Chevy Troutman, 2000 First Team, 1999 First Team
* Tony Rutland, 1994 First Team
* Allen Iverson, 1993 First Team

MIKE BAILEY PLAYERS WHO WERE NIKE TOP 100 ALL-AMERICAN CAMP:
* Allen Iverson
* Tony Rutland
* Chevy Troutman
* Taurance Johnson
* Darrell Blackman

MIKE BAILEY PLAYERS WHO WERE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
* Chevy Troutman, Mr. Basketball in Pennsylvania, 2000
* Tony Rutland, Gatorade Player of the Year in Virginia, 1994
* Allen Iverson, Player of the Year in Virginia, 1993

MIKE BAILEY PLAYER WHO WAS PARADE ALL-AMERICAN:
* Allen Iverson, Parade All-American First Team, 1993

MIKE BAILEY PLAYERS WHO BECAME PROFESSIONAL PLAYERS:
* Allen Iverson of the Denver Nuggets
* Tony Rutland in Korea, Austria, Venezuela, Cyprus, NBDL, Syria
* Corey Stewart in South America
* Chevy Troutman in Italy and France

In summary, Mike Bailey, an extremely successful coach over many, many years, was Allen Iverson’s first coach. History shows that he thought Allen Iverson was a great point guard in those early years. Bailey never played Iverson at the shooting guard spot to any extent. It would have been ridiculous had Bailey not taken full advantage of the best high school guard that he would ever have by assigning him to the point guard position, where guards who can both score and pass extremely well should go barring rare roster circumstances.

Bailey thought correctly by following the textbook on who should be your point guard, because his team won everything a team can possibly win while he and Iverson were running it.

PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 45%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 75%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 48%. However, at the same time the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, and there is no 9th playoff seed. By far the main way the Nuggets can make the playoffs is by beating out the Golden State Warriors for the 8th and final seed in the West. If the Nuggets and the Warriors finish with identical records though, the Warriors will most likely be the team that makes the playoffs, not the Nuggets. This is because the tie breaker, assuming the two split their season series 2-2, will be who has the better Western Conference record, and the Warriors are 2 games ahead in the loss column on that right now.

So it seems right now that the Warriors and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last playoff spot in the West. Both of them are considered likely to make the playoffs in statistical terms, but most likely one of them will fail to make the playoffs. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Warriors are favored over the Nuggets to get the 8th spot.

The Suns made a poor trade, but they have been on a winning streak lately, and they have won several key games, which means they may not be in a lot of danger of falling out of the playoffs after all. Key recent Suns’ victories include a win over the Spurs on March 9 and a win over the Warriors on March 13. But it is way too early to claim that the trade was not a mistake after all and that Shaquille O’Neal will work out for the Suns.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to full speed, especially since George Karl is notorious for taking forever to work a player he is not sold on back into the rotation following an injury. So it’s still unknown whether Atkins is ready to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs, and whether Karl will give him enough minutes if he is ready. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a slightly lower percentage chance than 48% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs.

In summary, the Lakers, the Rockets, the Hornets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Mavericks are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, the Suns are virtual locks, and the Warriors are favored over the Nuggets for the final, 8th spot. The Rockets have become total locks now, despite the loss of Yao Ming for the season, thanks to their 22-game winning streak. The Suns are still in some trouble, due to their poor trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, but they are in less trouble after their key early March wins at home over the Spurs and the Warriors.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
1. Lakers 58-24
2. Rockets 55-27
3. Hornets 55-27
4. Jazz 54-28
5. Suns 54-28
6. Spurs 53-29
7. Mavericks 53-29
8. Warriors 50-32

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
9. Nuggets 49-33

The Warriors are now 1 1/2 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last playoff spot. Golden State has a slightly more difficult schedule than the Nuggets do the rest of the way, making this race closer than it appears. However, if the Nuggets make up the 1 1/2 games, so that the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games. The Nuggets and Warriors have each won one game in the head to head series so far.

Now that the Nuggets are 2 1/2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are almost certainly out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain slightly more likely to make the playoffs than do the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are a little more likely than the Warriors to get the last spot. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT
Sun, Mar 23 @ LA Lakers 9:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM
Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM
Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM

NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT
Sun, Mar 23 @ Toronto 3:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM
Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM
Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM

At this point the odds for whether the Nuggets will make the playoffs are still close to 50%, creating the maximum possible drama. It is going to be a very close call. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 9-4 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 8-5 will probably not be good enough and 7-6 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 10-3 in their last 13 games.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is extremely unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 3%. The odds that the Utah Jazz will win the Northwest are 97% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch.

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME
Allen Iverson: suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. X-rays were negative, and he remains probable for the Nets game on March 21.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 32 straight games. He is out until at least April, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season.

NETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
All players on the roster were available.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 22, 2008

The Nuggets are under a GREY ALERT, on account of the following problems.

NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES
1. Nene illness 14 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
None.

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
NOTICE: THIS SECTION NEW AND IMPROVED as of March 19, 2008
EXTREME PLAYING TIME DECISIONS CONSTITUTING AN ERROR
At any given time, Karl may be doing one or more of the following:

1. He may be imposing a draconian penalty by completely benching a player who should not be benched unless the Nuggets want to shoot themselves in the foot or the head.
2. He may be severely under playing a player, either due to an excessive penalty for some mistake the player has made, a miscalculation of the benefits and costs of that player, or due to subjective factors up to and including extreme dislike of a player and a desire to make sure that the player is removed from the team in the off-season.
3. He may be over playing and over relying on one or more very experienced and talented veterans.

The new system we will use will employ the ranges of playing time minutes that are considered reasonable for the Nuggets. These are plenty large enough ranges to allow for plenty of coaching discretion, but if the playing time is outside of these ranges, it is clearly a coaching error:

Allen Iverson: 32-42
Carmelo Anthony: 32-42
Marcus Camby: 28-38
Kenyon Martin: 24-34
J.R. Smith: 22-34
Linas Kleiza: 16-28
Eduardo Najera: 16-24
Chucky Atkins: 14-22
Anthony Carter: 12-20
Yakhouba Diawara: 0-16
Taurean Green: 0-10
Steven Hunter: 0-10

Playing times lower than the minimum or higher than the maximum are coaching errors, and are usually charged at the rate of 1 alert system point for each 2 minutes of error. If a player is injured or sick to any extent, then this rule does not apply. Nor will the rule apply in games in which there is garbage time, except in the case of players who are playing below their minimum minutes on a repeated basis.

EXTREME PLAYING TIMES CONSTITUTING COACHING ERROR FOR THIS GAME:

Chucky Atkins: Underplayed, 7 points
Anthony Carter: Overplayed, 4 points
J.R. Smith: Underplayed, 3 points
Kenyon Martin: Overplayed, 2 points
Allen Iverson: Overplayed, 2 points
Marcus Camby: Overplayed, 1 point

This toll is bad, but it could be even worse than this with Karl, up to about 35 alert points.

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, usually reduces the damage. But Iverson does not control everything of course, and the lack of any real consistency in how the offense is run leads to damaging problems that can appear at any time. But these problems are much more likely to appear just when the Nuggets can least afford them, when they are playing one of the best teams in the NBA.

At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Carmelo Anthony to some extent and Anthony, one of the top two scorers on the team, was not getting the ball enough. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding. But the problem has shown signs of coming back again lately. If that problem appears when the Nuggets are playing an elite team, the Nuggets’ chances of winning the game go down substantially. The problem recently appeared in the March 18 Pistons game, and it helped to cause the Nuggets to lose.

Another big problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the main playmaker in the game: Iverson, Carter, Atkins, or some combination. More importantly, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes. If Iverson has decided to run the point, as he always does to one extent or another, he counts as a point guard whether he is labeled one by the coaching staff or not.

In general, and as always in the Karl era, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. True, they have plays they commonly run on the fly, but the players obviously don’t know about them in advance; they happen randomly. The offense is pretty much an unscripted, recreation department pick-up game style of offense.

How good of a defense you have is determined more by effort and skill than by strategy. For defense, strategy and tactics are less important than on offense. But they are still important, especially in a close game versus a good team. One thing that determines how well a team can defend is whether it has matched up the best and most appropriate players to guard the various offensive threats of the other team. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The correct choice usually will vary during each game. The decision is frequently made on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. But despite the fact that strategy and tactics are relatively important, the most important things with respect to defending is overall effort, hustle, anticipation of where the play is going, skill in avoiding unnecessary fouls, and ability to rotate off screens and picks.

This games’ toll due to the lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 3

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 3 Points.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 39, which constitutes GREY ALERT.

GREY ALERT (30-44): There are relatively minor problems leading to a small threat against the success of the entire season. It is still possible to beat quality teams, but it will be more unusual to beat a quality team, because about 1/4 of what would have been wins against good teams will now be losses. There should be no impact with respect to medium and poor teams.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS
The description of the alert status the Nuggets are in is a worst case scenario one; it assumes that the other team is in GREEN or NO alert. All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any. We use 15 alert status points as constituting one unit of difference.

OBSERVATIONS ON NUGGETS STATUS
Chucky Atkins was totally benched for no known reason, and J.R. Smith’s minutes were substantially below the minimum reasonable amount. Carter was grossly overplayed, and Iverson was worked to death.

Atkins has been removed from the unusual player slump designation. The best news of the month for the Nuggets is that Atkins has, in effect, finally arrived in Denver. This might give the Nuggets just enough 3-point shooting firepower to keep up with the Warriors in the race for the final playoff spot, as long as Atkins gets playing time.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but that never happened. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. However, since all other injuries are history, and since J.R. Smith has played so well that he is neither benched nor severely shortchanged of minutes these days, the Nuggets might be able to stay in the NO alert to GREY alert range, avoiding being disadvantaged to all but the lucky and perfectly managed elite teams.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do

EXPLANATION OF OUTSIDE FACTORS
The alert status system is still relatively new, but a preliminary estimate of what the game points advantage will be for each 15 points of alert status points difference has been made, and that estimate is 3-5 points. For now we will use 4 points for each 15 alert status points. The Home court advantage has also been estimated to be 3-5 points and we use 4 points for it. The extra rest advantage is very uncertain, and would differ a little from team to team, but it must be at least as much as the home court advantage. For now, until we can study it more, we will use 4 points for the extra rest advantage. In summary, we are using 4 points for each of the three outside factors.

IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME
The Nets had every player on the roster available, but they are still adjusting to a major point guard trade, which would be a disruptive factor, so they were probably in GREEN alert. With the Nuggets in GREY alert, this would have given the Nets about a 4-point edge over the Nuggets. The Nets were home, giving them another 4 points of advantage. Neither team was playing on back to back nights. In summary, the Nets had about an 8-point advantage over the Nuggets due to outside factors. Since the Nuggets won by 11, we can confidently say that this game would have been a rout in favor of the Nuggets had there been no outside factors.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Nets 10
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Nets 9

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 41
Nets Non-Starters Points: 19

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 8
Nets Non-Starters Rebounds: 18

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 6
Nets Non-Starters Assists: 5

THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME
There was no garbage time. George Karl returned to his notorious scrooge policies regarding non-starters, and failed to put who is supposed to be the Nuggets’ point guard starter, Chucky Atkins, in the game. So the Nets had a 2-player advantage in players who played 6 minutes or more, and a 1-player advantage in players who played 10 minutes or more. Nuggets starters Camby and Martin were slightly overworked and Allen Iverson was overworked to the point of stupidity.

It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. That he did so for several games in a row recently seems too good to be true now. In this game, Karl failed to meet his responsibility to see if Chucky Atkins can be readied for the last few games and the playoffs. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery and when Karl refused to name Iverson as the official point guard. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently even Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs. So Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets’ only hope at the position in the playoffs and in the stretch run to make the playoffs for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is inconsistent so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, and so Carter still has to play a lot of minutes also.

In scoring, the Nuggets’ non-starters, led by Kleiza and J.R. Smith, buried the Nets’ non-starters 41-19. The Nets’ non-starters buried the Nuggets’ non-starters in rebounding, 18-8. Assisting was about even; J.R. Smith made all 6 of the Nuggets’ non-starters assists.

STARTERS
Points: Nets 97 Nuggets 84
Rebounds: Nets 28 Nuggets 26
Assists: Nuggets 25 Nets 25

The Nets’ starters defeated the Nuggets’ starters in scoring 97-84. The Nets’ starters defeated the Nuggets’ starters in rebounding 28-26. Each starting five made 25 assists.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-NETS PLAYER RATINGS
Ratings of 50+ indicate superstar power performers.
Ratings of 40-49 indicate star power performers
Ratings of 30-39 indicate power performers.
Ratings of 20-29 indicate key role player performers.
Ratings of 10-19 indicate ordinary role player performers.
Ratings of 0-9 indicate unimportant players

NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Allen Iverson: Game 43.9 Season 41.3
Linas Kleiza: Game 35.3 Season 18.2
Marcus Camby: Game 34.8 Season 32.5
Kenyon Martin: Game 28.8 Season 23.5
Carmelo Anthony: Game 27.7 Season 39.0
J.R. Smith: Game 24.8 Season 17.1
Anthony Carter: Game 22.0 Season 20.0
Eduardo Najera: Game 12.4 Season 13.2

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness

Chucky Atkins: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

NETS PLAYER RATINGS
Vince Carter: Game 49.3 Season 35.4
Richard Jefferson: Game 46.0 Season 32.1
Devin Harris: Game 39.9 Season 26.3
Josh Boone: Game 25.2 Season 17.5
Marcus Williams: Game 14.5 Season 10.8
DeSagana Diop: Game 10.0 Season 10.1
Nenad Kristic: Game 9.9 Season 10.8
Sean Williams: Game 7.4 Season 13.4
Stromile Swift: Game 6.0 Season 11.1
Bostian Nachbar: Game 4.3 Season 15.2

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the strength and defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Nene, Najera, and Diawara.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
The most productive player on the court was Vince Carter of the Nets, who was a star power performer and almost a superstar power performer. Richard Jefferson of the Nets was the second most productive, and he was a star power performer. Allen Iverson of the Nuggets was the third star power performer.

Devin Harris of the Nets was right on the border between power performer and star power performer. Linas Kleiza and Marcus Camby were power performers for the Nuggets.

Among the 6 power performers in this game, each team had 3.

Linas Kleiza was about twice as productive as usual for the Nuggets. J.R. Smith was about half again more productive than usual for the team. Kenyon Martin was about 1/5 more productive than usual, which got him very close to the power performer level.

Iverson and Camby met their sky high and high averages, respectively. At the role player level, Carter, and Najera about matched their averages.

There was only 1 Nugget who was well below normal and it was one of the most important ones. Carmelo Anthony was only about 70% as productive as usual, which took him out of the power performer range and made him only a key role player for this game.

Literally all of the most important Nets players were well above normal in this game. SG Carter and SF Jefferson were both about 40% more productive than usual, while PG Harris was half again more productive than usual.

At the role player level, C Boone became a key role player by being half again more productive than usual. At a lower level, PG Marcus Williams was about 40% more productive than normal.

Among other Nets role players, C Diop and PF Kristic were both almost exactly normal.

Nets disappointments were among less important role players. PF Sean Williams and PF Swift were both only about 60% as productive as usual. The Biggest problem for the Nets was SF Nachbar, who was only about 30% as productive as usual.

In summary, the Nuggets had just 1 player substantially below normal but a very important one, while the Nets had 3, although all 3 were role players.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-NETS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. J.R. Smith, Den 1.550
2. Linas Kleiza, Den 1.535
3. Richard Jefferson, NJ 1.314
4. Vince Carter, NJ 1.264
5. Marcus Williams, NJ 1.036
6. Stromile Swift, NJ 1.000…Swift played only 6 minutes.
7. Allen Iverson, Den 0.998
8. Devin Harris, NJ 0.998
9. Marcus Camby, Den 0.916
10. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.873
11. Anthony Carter, Den 0.846
12. DeSagana Diop, NJ 0.833
13. Carmelo Anthony, Den 0.791
14. Josh Boone, NJ 0.764
15. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.689
16. Sean Williams, NJ 0.673
17. Nenad Krstic, NJ 0.660
18. Bostjan Nachbar, NJ 0.253

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The best two players on the court were definitely J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza for the Nuggets; both of them were superstars. Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson were star-plus for the Nets.

Among the 4 players who were stars or better, each team had 2.

Iverson and Camby were outstanding for the Nuggets. Marcus Williams and Harris were outstanding for the Nets. Swift was outstanding for the Nets in very limited minutes.

Martin and Carter were very good for the Nuggets. Diop was very good for the Nets. Anthony for the Nuggets and Boone for the Nets were good.

Najera for the Nuggets was only mediocre. Sean Williams and Kristic for the Nets were only mediocre.

The only player on the court who was below mediocre was Nachbar, who was on the border between total disaster and extremely poor.

Among players who were mediocre or worse, the Nuggets had only 1 while the Nets had 3.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Eduardo Najera: +23
J.R. Smith: +20
Linas Kleiza: +17
Allen Iverson: +15
Marcus Camby: +3
Kenyon Martin: -4
Anthony Carter: -7
Carmelo Anthony: -12

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 9, Team 0, Anthony 3, Camby 2, Carter 0, Iverson 2, Kleiza 0, Martin 1, Najera 0, Smith 1

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 23, Anthony 2, Camby 4, Carter 3, Iverson 4, Kleiza 1, Martin 2, Najera 5, Smith 2

Eduardo Najera played 18 minutes and was 2/4, 1/1 on 3’s, and 1/2 from the line for 6 points, and he made 3 steals and 3 rebounds.

Carmelo Anthony played 37 minutes and was 7/12 and 3/5 from the line for 17 points, and he made 5 rebounds and 4 assists.

Anthony Carter played 27 minutes and was 4/7 and 0/2 on 3’s for 8 points, and he made 6 assists, 2 steals, and 2 rebounds.

Kenyon Martin played 33 minutes and was 8/15, 0/1 on 3’s, and 1/4 from the line for 17 points, and he made 8 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 block.

Marcus Camby played 39 minutes and was 6/14, 0/1 on 3’s, and 4/5 from the line for 16 points, and he made 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals.

Allen Iverson played for virtually the whole game, 45 minutes, and was 8/18, 0/1 on 3’s, and 10/11 from the line for 26 points, and he made 9 assists, 4 steals, and 1 rebound.

Linas Kleiza played 23 minutes and was 9/11, 5/7 on 3’s, and 0/2 from the line for 23 points, and he made 4 rebounds.

J.R. Smith played 17 minutes and was 4/7, 1/2 on 3’s, and 3/4 from the line for 12 points, and he made 6 assists, 2 steals, and 1 rebound.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Sunday, March 23 in Toronto to play the Raptors at 1:30 pm mountain time. Neither the Nuggets nor the Raptors will be playing on back to back nights.

NUGGETS 1 HOME

The Denver Nuggets Lose in Philadelphia to the 76'ers 115-113 and Allen Iverson: What Could Have Been, Part 1

2008-03-20T21:50:00.000-07:00

The Nuggets, despite being on the ropes with respect to making the playoffs, could not survive serious offensive droughts in the 2nd half and could not step it up to win a winnable game; the Philadelphia 76’ers defeated the underperforming Nuggets 115-113. The Sixers had all three of the known outside factor advantages. They were the home team, the Nuggets were playing on back to back nights while the 76’ers were rested, and the Nuggets were in a higher alert status than were the Sixers due mostly to coaching errors and the Nene illness. An estimate of the advantage the Sixers had due to all of these outside factors is 12 points, so the Nuggets made up 10 of these points, but could not make up the other 2 to at least send the game into overtime.

Are the Nuggets doing everything possible to try to make the playoffs? No, they are clearly not. Chucky Atkins and J.R. Smith played only 6 and 15 minutes respectively, while Marcus Camby played 37 minutes and had 5 points and Eduardo Najera played 20 minutes and had 0 points. Even worse than not having a center who can make a lot of power drives, post-ups, layups, and dunks, is the fact that the Nuggets almost always have at least 1 front court player who is largely left out of the offense in every game. Sometimes it’s Camby, sometimes it’s Eduardo Najera, and sometimes it’s Linas Kleiza. Sometimes Carmelo Anthony is partially left out of the offense. It used to be Kenyon Martin in certain games many weeks ago, but rarely anymore is it him. But it’s almost always someone, so the Nuggets are always playing with one front court player tied behind their backs so to speak. And because Karl gives only 2 guards a lot of playing time, Iverson and Carter, and because Carter is a low rate scorer, they are always playing with one guard tied behind their backs as well.

Are the Nuggets at least going all out effort wise to make the playoffs? Probably not; they have a coach who likes to explain away losses by talking about the tough personality of the other team, as if the opponent was a living thing with a major psychological advantage over the Nuggets, who I guess, in Karl’s world, are too unserious and psychologically wobbly to ever be a truly good basketball team. But teams are not human and they don’t have personalities except in a superficial, stylistic sense. Karl is clearly confused about what a personality really is; it’s a lot more complicated and a lot less of a factor in winning basketball games than he thinks.

Teams are a collection of players, and even the personalities of the players are almost always a relatively minor factor. What is needed to win basketball games is within the capability of every personality to produce; everyone has the ability to step it up and do well on the court, regardless of how you would describe or analyze their personalities. Everyone agrees that J.R. Smith has an immature, impulsive, and somewhat unpredictable personality, but that has not stopped him from being one of the best shooting guards in the NBA so far in 2008. Sometimes I almost feel silly discussing these things, but I have to, because this is how the Coach of the Denver Nuggets thinks.

ALLEN IVERSON: WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN, PART 1

So Allen Iverson returned to Philadelphia, but for all practical purposes he never left. Amazingly, there has not been the slightest adjustment in Iverson’s role after the move from the 76’ers to the Nuggets. He still has exactly, and I mean exactly, the same role he had in Philadelphia. He’s still playing the same old position, shooting guard, even though he started out in high school, in college, and in his rookie of the year season as a point guard, and even though he returned to that position for most of the 3 1/3 years after Coach Larry Brown left the Sixers, and even though the Nuggets are starting a player at the point, Anthony Carter, who has never been even hypothetically let alone actually regarded as a starting point guard until this year.

In 7 years prior to coming on the Nuggets, Carter never started more than 30 games in a season, never played more than 23.5 minutes a game, never made more than 4.8 assists per game, and never scored more than 6.4 points a game. This is the player that George Karl chose over Allen Iverson to be the starting point guard for the Denver Nuggets after Chucky Atkins, who has been regarded as a true starting point guard for many years, was lost for most of the season. And now as if to make everyone absolutely sure that he doesn’t know what he is doing on the point guard front, Karl has suddenly discontinued the crucial effort to get Chucky Atkins in good form for the playoff run and for the playoffs. Atkins played 3 extremely good games in a row, against the Grizzlies, the Raptors and the Sonics. Then, after he was only average in the Pistons game, he played only 6 minutes in this 76’ers game. So much for the theory that even Karl is not dumb enough to not know that getting Atkins back into good form is crucial for the Nuggets if they really want to make the playoffs, and if they really want to avoid losing a playoff series 4-0 or 4-1.

Before this season, Carter had started 102 games in an 8-year career and had played about 7,000 minutes. Before this season, Atkins had started 314 games and had played about 16,000 minutes. But in Karl’s mind, Carter needs to start the rest of the way for the Nuggets regardless of whether Atkins is back in good form or not. In fact, Karl apparently doesn’t even consider himself to be responsible to try to make sure that Atkins gets back into top form.

Lord help you if you are injured and don’t come back for awhile while playing for George Karl, because when you do come back, you might find that your entire NBA career now counts for nothing, and you are no longer considered, in Karl’s world, what you were before the injury.

I had a forum conversation with a 76’ers fan on a 76’ers forum. I am reprinting it here, because you can see what I am up against as I explain why the Nuggets have failed this year. And how it turns out that the trade of Andre Miller for Allen Iverson failed, not because it was intrinsically a bad trade, but because the Nuggets simply did not understand that using A.I. in the exact same way that Larry Brown used him would lead to the exact same result, Melo or no Melo: no playoffs or a quick early out in the playoffs. All having Carmelo Anthony and Marcus Camby on his team does for Iverson is to offset the fact that the Western Conference is far better than the Eastern Conference.

Iverson has ended up in the exact same situation he was in Philadelphia. Iverson in Denver, like Iverson in Philadelphia, continues to be asked to do too much and not enough at the same time. As in Philadelphia, Iverson in Denver is asked to play both guard positions at once and he is asked to be at the same time the number one playmaker and the number one scorer among guards for the Nuggets. But he is not asked to adjust his game a little, so that the number of easy to defend isolation plays he runs is reduced and the number of hard to defend passing plays he runs is increased.

By reading the following interesting interchange, you can see how even a major 76’ers and Iverson fan has fallen into the trap of thinking too narrowly about Iverson and what he can do. There is a logical fallacy, or optical illusion if you prefer, involved with thinking that Iverson can not be a good point guard. And there is more of interest, so read on.

NUGGETS 1:
Well, I don't think Iverson is a perfect PG, and he is obviously a much more aggressive scorer than most PGs, but I think it is going too far to say he is a poor PG. Just a few quick reasons off the top of my head:

1. Iverson was the PG in his 2 years at Georgetown University and heavily dominated in assists for his team.
2. As you confirm, Iverson was the PG in his rookie of the year first year in the NBA.
3. As you confirm, Iverson returned mostly to the PG position after Larry Brown was gone. It turns out that although Iverson has played more years at SG than at PG, more coaches have preferred Iverson at PG over SG.
4. The NBA front office has always considered Iverson to be a PG at least as much as a SG, since his position at the all-star games has been PG, not SG.
5. Everyone agrees that Iverson can play either position, and he frequently plays both positions at once at the same time. So if he were truly a poor PG, wouldn't he have evolved over the years to limit himself to the SG role, with or without having to be told to do that by coaches? In other words, if he is much better in the SG role than in the PG role, than why can he still be seen today often running the point, and why is he 7th in the NBA in assists per game, ahead of most of the actual point guards?
6. The Nuggets, once Chucky Atkins went out for most of the season, were left with the choice of playing Iverson at the point or playing Anthony Carter at the point. Carter is someone who never averaged more than 23.5 minutes per game and 4.8 assists per game before he was befriended by George Karl, who likes his personality and conservative playmaking style. So even a good number of those who don't think Iverson is all that great a point guard would have to agree that the Nuggets should have played him at the position in the emergency they found themselves in when Atkins was lost for most of the season. In other words, Karl made a mistake regardless of exactly how great a PG Iverson really is.

76’ERS FAN:
These are because of his height. Iverson's height makes him a defensive liability at SG, and tall, effective points are a rarity.

Most of his coaches have preferred him at SG, I'll show you

PG: Davis, O'Brien, Thompson
SG: Brown, Ayers, Ford, Cheeks, Karl

Cheeks didn't have another point option, so he was forced to play AI there, but he hated it. He even played Iguadala there in the 06-07 season over Iverson.

NUGGETS 1:
Cheeks can’t be counted as just SG, because it was both, so he should be 1/2 point for each. Ayers and Ford can only count as 1/2 each, because they coached in the same season, and it is even rarer for one of the best players in the NBA to have his position changed during the season than it would be for him to have his position changed from one year to the next. So it is really 3 1/2 coaches each. But I bet if I went back to high school, it would be PG again!

76’ERS FAN:
The same is true in the all-star game. He gets point by virtue of being shorter.

NUGGETS 1
Well if he’s too short to play the SG position in the all-star game, then he is definitely too short to play the SG position in ordinary games. One or the other is wrong; either the NBA front office is wrong for listing him as a PG for all-star voting, or Larry Brown and George Karl are wrong for designating him as a SG.

76’ERS FAN:
Assists do not equal being a good point guard. Iverson gets most of his assists as bail outs - last resorts after his scoring options are exhausted. He doesn't set up the offense, and he holds the ball for too long to be an effective point. When he runs it, the other players feel alienated from the game, and it leads to inconsistency from the team. His numbers will look great, but the overall offense becomes stagnant. It's why the Nuggets traded for Blake.

NUGGETS 1:
There is some truth in your observations, but you can’t use those observations to prove that Iverson is a poor PG, because the SG position has different priorities than the PG position does, and any player moved from PG to SG would have to change his game or be a failure at SG. In other words, there is a lack of logic in saying: “Look, there’s Iverson running another isolation dribble and fade away again. See, he would be a bad PG. But he’s doing what shooting guards are allowed and frequently encouraged to do, so it is an invalid observation.

It's not really much different from saying that Ray Allen, Rashad McCants, or Jason Richardson would not be good point guards based on how they are playing right now. It's true, but it isn't a valid or logical observation.

76’ERS FAN:
The nuggets are visibly more energetic and better on offense with Carter in the game. He's not as explosive as Iverson, but he's solid and consistent, which denver really needs. Keeping blake would've done them better, but they didn't want to pay the luxury tax.

NUGGETS 1:
I think the Nuggets are more energetic and better on offense with the Iverson / J.R. Smith backcourt than they are with the Iverson / Carter offense. Adjusted for pace, and you have to adjust to get the real truth, the Nuggets are about the 5th best team in the NBA on defense, but only about the 15th best team in the NBA on offense.

76’ERS FAN:
Playing carter has really helped the nuggets' turnovers, as Iverson turns the ball over way to much as a point, he's never had even a 2 to 1 assist to TO ratio while playing that position.

NUGGETS 1:
The Nuggets are still a high turnover team even with Carter. Iverson is still handling the ball extensively even while being designated the SG. In every game, Iverson runs the point to one extent or another. The more Iverson runs the point, the less value Carter has in games. J.R. Smith offsets his turnovers with steals and explosive scoring, so the Iverson PG / J.R. Smith SG backcourt would not be worse than the Carter PG / Iverson SG backcourt in terms of net damage from turnovers. George Karl simply decided that he couldn’t stomach the number of turnovers you would get with the Iverson / Smith backcourt; he never made a reasonable estimation of all costs and all benefits.

76’ERS FAN:
Don't get me wrong. I'm as big an Iverson fan as there is, and I've watch nearly every Nuggets game since he was traded. But I'd like to see him appreciated for what he is. Classifying him as a point exposes his weaknesses at that position. He's an incredibly versatile shooting guard who can fill in there when needed.

NUGGETS 1:
Well the Nuggets lost their starting PG for most of the season, so if AI wasn’t needed then at the position, then when would he be needed? Never, because Karl will go through all kinds of contortions to avoid playing AI at the point, because Karl buys into the myth that AI is a poor PG, or at least because he thinks that AI has been spoiled as a PG by playing SG for so many years.

Iverson briefly started at PG last year for the Nuggets, and did reasonably well. But ever since Karl grew to detest J.R. Smith about a year ago, starting AI at the point has been out of the question, because he would have to start J.R. Smith at 2-guard if he did that and he will not start J.R. Smith under any circumstances. Smith has been one of the best shooting guards in the NBA since 2008 began, but all it has gotten him is about half a dozen more minutes per game. Karl still refuses to even consider starting him and would rather miss the playoffs than start J.R. Smith.

76’ERS FAN:
By the way, the reason the Nuggets are struggling is inconsistent effort, especially on the defensive end, and a lack of ball movement. Combining two isolation players in Iverson and Anthony was never a good idea. They don't, and can't work off of each other, so they end up taking turns scoring, with one of them holding the ball 5-10 seconds on most possessions. It effectively limits both of their explosiveness.

And by not involving the players enough, it takes their heads out of the game, which leads to long stretches where they barely play any defense. Carmelo is the worst at that, but Iverson isn't much better, and his height hurts things.

NUGGETS 1:
Ok, you have done extremely well describing some of the big problems the Nuggets have with Iverson at SG, unaccountable for how many isolation plays he runs at that position. If Iverson is designated the PG and you tell him: “A.I., I want 10-12 assists per game and 18-20 points per game instead of 7 assists per game and 25 points per game,” and as long as all the years he has played the wrong position for Brown and Karl have not made him unable to adjust, which I greatly doubt, you have gone a long way to solving the big problems that you described.

You see what is going on here? Iverson is faulted for not being a good point guard while he is assigned to the shooting guard position, by people who swear he is not a good enough point guard to be designated as a point guard. This is both a circular and an illogical argument. Most of the Iverson critics are trying to have it both ways. They are criticizing Iverson for not being what he has not been instructed to be, on account of an assumption that he can’t be that. They are watching Iverson playing the SG position and saying “Look, there’s Iverson running all of those isolation plays. You see, he can’t be a good point guard.” To which I respond: you have no point and you are not making any sense.

The bottom line is that the Nuggets clearly should have moved AI to PG after Chucky Atkins went out for most of the season at the beginning of the season. That is what all the basketball sites were expecting at the beginning of the year; all of the depth charts were showing Iverson starting at PG and Smith starting at SG. But George Karl dislikes J.R. Smith with a passion and has overestimated his negatives by far. Almost every decision Karl makes in relation to the guards has the same common denominator: Smith's playing time is reduced from what it would be if a different decision were made.

Now we will never know for sure if the Iverson / Smith back court would have gotten the Nuggets a decent seed in the playoffs, but I would be extremely surprised if it would not have. I think the Nuggets would have been 3rd, 4th, or 5th seed in the West had the Nuggets realized who really was their best point guard, and their best back court.

PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 40%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 75%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 44%. However, at the same time the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, and there is no 9th playoff seed. By far the main way the Nuggets can make the playoffs is by beating out the Golden State Warriors for the 8th and final seed in the West. If the Nuggets and the Warriors finish with identical records though, the Warriors will most likely be the team that makes the playoffs, not the Nuggets. This is because the tie breaker, assuming the two split their season series 2-2, will be who has the better Western Conference record, and the Warriors are 2 games ahead in the loss column on that right now.

So it seems right now that the Warriors and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last playoff spot in the West. Both of them are considered likely to make the playoffs in statistical terms, but most likely one of them will fail to make the playoffs. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Warriors are favored over the Nuggets to get the 8th spot.

The Suns made a poor trade, but they have been on a winning streak lately, and they have won several key games, which means they may not be in a lot of danger of falling out of the playoffs after all. Key recent Suns’ victories include a win over the Spurs on March 9 and a win over the Warriors on March 13. But it is way too early to claim that the trade was not a mistake after all and that Shaquille O’Neal will work out for the Suns.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to full speed, especially since George Karl is notorious for taking forever to work a player he is not sold on back into the rotation following an injury. So it’s still unknown whether Atkins is ready to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs, and whether Karl will give him enough minutes if he is ready. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a lower percentage chance than 44% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs.

In summary, the Lakers, the Rockets, the Hornets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Mavericks are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, the Suns are virtual locks, and the Warriors are favored over the Nuggets for the final, 8th spot. The Rockets have become total locks now, despite the loss of Yao Ming for the season, thanks to their 22-game winning streak. The Suns are still in some trouble, due to their poor trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, but they are in less trouble after their key early March wins at home over the Spurs and the Warriors.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
1. Lakers 58-24
2. Rockets 55-27
3. Hornets 55-27
4. Jazz 54-28
5. Suns 54-28
6. Spurs 53-29
7. Mavericks 53-29
8. Warriors 50-32

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
9. Nuggets 49-33

The Warriors are now 2 1/2 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last playoff spot. Golden State has a slightly more difficult schedule than the Nuggets do the rest of the way, making this race closer than it appears. However, if the Nuggets make up the 2 1/2 games, so that the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games. The Nuggets and Warriors have each won one game in the head to head series so far.

Now that the Nuggets are 2 1/2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are almost certainly out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain slightly more likely to make the playoffs than do the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are a little more likely than the Warriors to get the last spot. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT
Fri, Mar 21 Houston 10:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ LA Lakers 9:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM
Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM
Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM

NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT
Fri, Mar 21 @ New Jersey 7:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ Toronto 3:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM
Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM
Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM

At this point the odds for whether the Nuggets will make the playoffs are still close to 50%, creating the maximum possible drama. It is going to be a very close call. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 10-4 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 9-5 will probably not be good enough and 8-6 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 11-3 in their last 14 games.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is extremely unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 3%. The odds that the Utah Jazz will win the Northwest are 97% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch.

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME
Allen Iverson: suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. X-rays were negative, and he remains probable for the Nets game on March 21.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 32 straight games. He is out until at least April, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season.

76’ERS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Herbert Hill: knee injury and surgery, and he could be out for the rest of the season.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 20, 2008

The Nuggets are under a GREEN ALERT, on account of the following problems.

NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES
1. Nene illness 14 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
None.

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
NOTICE: THIS SECTION NEW AND IMPROVED as of March 19, 2008
EXTREME PLAYING TIME DECISIONS CONSTITUTING AN ERROR
At any given time, Karl may be doing one or more of the following:

1. He may be imposing a draconian penalty by completely benching a player who should not be benched unless the Nuggets want to shoot themselves in the foot or the head.
2. He may be severely under playing a player, either due to an excessive penalty for some mistake the player has made, a miscalculation of the benefits and costs of that player, or due to subjective factors up to and including extreme dislike of a player and a desire to make sure that the player is removed from the team in the off-season.
3. He may be over playing and over relying on one or more very experienced and talented veterans.

The new system we will use will employ the ranges of playing time minutes that are considered reasonable for the Nuggets. These are plenty large enough ranges to allow for plenty of coaching discretion, but if the playing time is outside of these ranges, it is clearly a coaching error:

Allen Iverson: 32-42
Carmelo Anthony: 30-42
Marcus Camby: 28-38
Kenyon Martin: 24-34
J.R. Smith: 22-34
Linas Kleiza: 16-28
Eduardo Najera: 16-24
Chucky Atkins: 14-22
Anthony Carter: 12-20
Yakhouba Diawara: 0-14
Taurean Green: 0-10
Steven Hunter: 0-10

Playing times lower than the minimum or higher than the maximum are coaching errors, and are usually charged at the rate of 1 alert system point for each 2 minutes of error. If a player is injured or sick to any extent, then this rule does not apply. Nor will the rule apply in games in which there is garbage time, except in the case of players who are playing below their minimum minutes on a repeated basis.

EXTREME PLAYING TIMES CONSTITUTING COACHING ERROR FOR THIS GAME:

J.R. Smith: Underplayed, 4 points
Chucky Atkins: Underplayed, 4 points
Kenyon Martin: Overplayed, 2 points
Anthony Carter: Overplayed, 1 point
Allen Iverson: Overplayed, 1 point

If you think this is really bad, think again. This current toll of playing time errors is actually a little light by Karl’s standards.

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, usually reduces the damage. But Iverson does not control everything of course, and the lack of any real consistency in how the offense is run leads to damaging problems that can appear at any time. But these problems are much more likely to appear just when the Nuggets can least afford them, when they are playing one of the best teams in the NBA.

At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Carmelo Anthony to some extent and Anthony, one of the top two scorers on the team, was not getting the ball enough. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding. But the problem has shown signs of coming back again lately. If that problem appears when the Nuggets are playing an elite team, the Nuggets’ chances of winning the game go down substantially. The problem recently appeared in the March 18 Pistons game, and it helped to cause the Nuggets to lose.

Another big problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the main playmaker in the game: Iverson, Carter, Atkins, or some combination. More importantly, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes. If Iverson has decided to run the point, as he always does to one extent or another, he counts as a point guard whether he is labeled one by the coaching staff or not.

In general, and as always in the Karl era, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. True, they have plays they commonly run on the fly, but the players obviously don’t know about them in advance; they happen randomly. The offense is pretty much an unscripted, recreation department pick-up game style of offense.

How good your defense is is determined more by effort and skill than by strategy. For defense, strategy and tactics are less important than on offense. But they are still important, especially in a close game versus a good team. One thing that determines how well a team can defend is whether it has matched up the best and most appropriate players to guard the various offensive threats of the other team. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The correct choice usually will vary during each game. The decision is frequently made on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. But despite the fact that strategy and tactics are relatively important, the most important things with respect to defending is overall effort, hustle, anticipation of where the play is going, skill in avoiding unnecessary fouls, and ability to rotate off screens and picks.

This games’ toll due to the lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 5

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 4 Points.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 35, which constitutes GREY ALERT.

GREY ALERT (30-39): There are relatively minor problems leading to a small threat against the success of the entire season. It is still possible to beat quality teams, but it will be more unusual to beat a quality team, because about 1/4 of what would have been wins against good teams will now be losses. There should be no impact with respect to medium and poor teams..

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS
The description of the alert status the Nuggets are in is a worst case scenario one; it assumes that the other team is in GREEN or NO alert. All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any. We use 15 alert status points as constituting a difference.

OBSERVATIONS ON NUGGETS STATUS
George Karl has been doing better than usual with the rotations lately; no one is benched who should not be, and the offense has been in super drive against poor and average defensive teams. All of these things have helped to push the alert status down to GREEN Alert.

Atkins has been removed from the unusual player slump designation. The best news of the month for the Nuggets is that Atkins has, in effect, finally arrived in Denver. This might give the Nuggets just enough 3-point shooting firepower to keep up with the Warriors in the race for the final playoff spot, as long as Atkins gets playing time.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. However, since all other injuries are history, and since J.R. Smith has played so well that he is neither benched nor severely shortchanged of minutes these days, the Nuggets might be able to stay in the NO alert to GREY alert range, avoiding being disadvantaged to all but the lucky and perfectly managed elite teams.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do

EXPLANATION OF OUTSIDE FACTORS
The alert status system is still relatively new, but a preliminary estimate of what the game points advantage will be for each 15 points of alert status points difference has been made, and that estimate is 3-5 points. For now we will use 4 points for each 15 alert status points. The Home court advantage has also been estimated to be 3-5 points and we use 4 points for it. The extra rest advantage is very uncertain, and would differ a little from team to team, but it must be at least as much as the home court advantage. For now, until we can study it more, we will use 4 points for the extra rest advantage. In summary, we are using 4 points for each of the three outside factors.

IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME
The 76’ers had no important players unavailable, and a rough estimate of their alert status is that they are in GREEN alert. They roughly had a 15 points or 1 level advantage over the Nuggets in alert status, which translates into a 4 point advantage. The 76’ers were home. The Nuggets were playing on back to back nights. In summary, the 76’ers had a 12 point edge over the Nuggets due to outside factors. Since the 76’ers won by only 2 points, we can confidently say that the Nuggets would have won this game were it not for the outside factors.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 9 76’ers 9
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 76’ers 9

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 16
76’ers Non-Starters Points: 30

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 17
76’ers Non-Starters Rebounds: 15

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 6
76’ers Non-Starters Assists: 0

THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME
There was no garbage time. Each coach played 9 players for at least 6 minutes, but one of the Nuggets, Chucky Atkins, did not play 10 minutes or more while all of the 76’ers played 10 minutes or more. Atkins was denied the courtesy of even 10 minutes of playing time despite the fact that he has played extremely well lately.

It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. Right now he is forced to, because pushing J.R. Smith below 10 minutes is out of the question the way he is playing, and there is a huge mess at PG which requires Karl to play 2 official point guards for much more than 10 minutes each. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery and when Karl refused to name Iverson as the official point guard. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs. So Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets’ only hope at the position in the playoffs and in the stretch run to make the playoffs for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is inconsistent so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, and so Carter still has to play a lot of minutes also.

In scoring, the 76’ers non-starters almost doubled up the Nuggets’ non-starters, 30-16. In rebounding though, the Nuggets’ non-starters were slightly better, 17-15. Due to the overwhelming dominance of Andre Miller as a playmaker in this game, the 76’ers non-starters made no assists. The Nuggets’ non-starters made 6 assists.

STARTERS
Points: Nuggets 97 76’ers 85
Rebounds: 76’ers 42 Nuggets 27
Assists: Nuggets 22 76’ers 22

The Nuggets starters defeated the 76’ers starters 97-85. But the 76’ers starters out rebounded the Nuggets starters 42-27. Each starting five made 22 assists.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-76’ERS PLAYER RATINGS
Ratings of 50+ indicate superstar power performers.
Ratings of 40-49 indicate star power performers
Ratings of 30-39 indicate power performers.
Ratings of 20-29 indicate key role player performers.
Ratings of 10-19 indicate ordinary role player performers.
Ratings of 0-9 indicate unimportant players

NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Allen Iverson: Game 51.7 Season 41.1
Kenyon Martin: Game 41.1 Season 23.1
Carmelo Anthony: Game 35.0 Season 39.0
Anthony Carter: Game 23.8 Season 20.0
Linas Kleiza: Game 20.1 Season 18.4
Marcus Camby: Game 17.7 Season 32.7
J.R. Smith: Game 10.3 Season 16.6
Eduardo Najera: Game 5.6 Season 13.3
Chucky Atkins: Game 1.6 Season 10.4

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness

Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

76’ERS PLAYER RATINGS
Andre Miller: Game 50.3 Season 31.4
Andre Igoudala: Game 38.6 Season 33.4
Samuel Dalembert: Game 33.4 Season 25.0
Willie Green: Game 25.3 Season 18.9
Rodney Carney: Game 14.6 Season 9.2
Thaddeus Young: Game 14.5 Season 14.3
Reggie Evans: Game 11.7 Season 13.7
Jason Smith: Game 11.5 Season 9.1
Louis Williams: Game 9.0 Season 17.4

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the strength and defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Nene, Najera, and Diawara.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
Allen Iverson was the most productive player on the court and was a superstar power performer. Andre Miller was slightly behind Iverson and was also a superstar power performer. Kenyon Martin for the Nuggets was a star power performer.

Anthony was a power performer for the Nuggets while Igoudala and Dalembert were power performers for the 76’ers.

Among players who were power performers or better, each team had 3.

For the Nuggets, Iverson and Martin gave the most to try to win this game: Martin was about 75% more productive than usual and Iverson was about 1/5 more productive than usual, and he is the 5th most productive player in the NBA on average. The only 4 players who are more productive than Iverson are LeBron James, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, and Amare Stoudemire.

Carter was about 1/5 above normal and Kleiza was about 1/10 above normal and these two were key role players in this game

Carmelo Anthony was 90% as productive as usual.

The major down Nuggets were Camby and Najera. By far the biggest disappointment for the Nuggets was Marcus Camby, who was only about 60% as productive as usual. He dropped from being a star power performer to being an ordinary role player. Najera was also a big disappointment, as he was only about 40% as productive as usual, with normal playing time

In the case of 2 other Nuggets who were below normal, reduced playing time was involved. J.R. Smith was about 60% as productive as usual, but this was partly due to minutes below his seasonal average, Atkins was extremely unproductive, but this was almost entirely due to lack of playing time.

PG Andre Miller was by far the biggest upside for the 76’ers, with a 2/3 more productive performance, up to superstar power performer from ordinary power performer

C Dalembert, SG Green, and SF Carney all did damage to the Nuggets’ chances, as all 3 were a solid 1/3 above normal. Each one of these moved up one level from normal. Dalembert, for example, moved up from being a key role player to a power performer. SF Igoudala was even more of a power performer than usual, 15% above the normal.

The biggest disappoint for the 76’ers was PG Williams, who was only about half as productive as usual on 80% of the usual minutes.

Among other less important players, PF Jason Smith was about 1/4 more productive than usual while PF Young was exactly normal. Former Nugget PF Reggie Evans was about 85% as productive as usual.

In summary, the 76’ers had only 1 player who played substantially below normal, while the Nuggets had 4, one of which was a huge loss, Camby, and 2 of which who were affected by reduced playing time.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-76’ERS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Andre Miller, Phi 1.290
2. Allen Iverson, Den 1.202
3. Anthony Carter, Den 1.133
4. Kenyon Martin, Den 1.082
5. Rodney Carney, Phi 1.043
6. Willie Green, Phi 0.973
7. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.957
8. Carmelo Anthony, Den 0.946
9. Andre Iguodala, Phi 0.877
10. Samuel Dalembert, Phi 0.835
11. Jason Smith, Phi 0.719
12. Thaddeus Young, Phi 0.690
13. J.R. Smith, Den 0.687
14. Reggie Evans, Phi 0.532
15. Louis Williams, Phi 0.500
16. Marcus Camby, Den 0.478
17. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.280
18. Chucky Atkins, Den 0.267…Atkins played only 6 minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The best player on the court was Andre Miller, who beat out Allen Iverson; both of them were star-plus though.

Kenyon Martin and Anthony Carter were stars for Denver.

Among players who were stars or better, the Nuggets had 3 and the 76’ers had 1.

Kleiza and Anthony were outstanding for the Nuggets, while Carney and Green were outstanding for the 76’ers.

Igoudala and Dalembert were very good for the 76’ers. Jason Smith was good for the 76’ers.

Young for the 76’ers and J.R. Smith for the Nuggets were mediocre.

Evans and Williams were poor for the 76’ers. Camby was very poor for the Nuggets. Najera and Atkins on limited minutes were extremely poor for the Nuggets.

Among players who were mediocre or worse, the Nuggets had 4 while the 76’ers had 3.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Carmelo Anthony: +5
Anthony Carter: +2
Kenyon Martin: +1
Allen Iverson: +0
Marcus Camby: +0
Linas Kleiza: -3
J.R. Smith: -5
Eduardo Najera: -5

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 13, Team 0, Anthony 4, Atkins 0, Camby 2, Carter 0, Iverson 2, Kleiza 1, Martin 2, Najera 0, Smith 2

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 27, Anthony 3, Atkins 1, Camby 1, Carter 3, Iverson 3, Kleiza 5, Martin 5, Najera 4, Smith 2

Chucky Atkins played 6 minutes and was 0/1 and 0/1 on 3’s for 0 points, and he made 1 assist and 1 rebound.

Eduardo Najera played 20 minutes and was 0/1 and 0/1 on 3’s for 0 points, and he made 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal.

Marcus Camby played 37 minutes and was 2/6 and 1/2 from the line for 5 points, and he made 4 blocks, 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals.

J.R. Smith played 15 minutes and was 3/10, 2/5 on 3’s, and 1/2 from the line for 9 points, and he made 2 assists and 2 rebounds

Carmelo Anthony played 37 minutes and was 9/20, 3/4 on 3’s, and 5/6 from the line for 26 points, and he made 4 assists and 4 rebounds.

Linas Kleiza played 21 minutes and was 2/7, 1/3 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 7 points, and he made 11 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal.

Kenyon Martin played 38 minutes and was 10/15 and 2/4 from the line for 22 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 4 steals, and 4 assists.

Anthony Carter played 21 minutes and was 5/8 and 2/4 on 3’s for 12 points, and he made 3 assists, 3 steals, and 1 rebound.

Allen Iverson played for most of the game, 43 minutes, and was 13/24, 3/5 on 3’s, and 3/5 from the line for 32 points, and he made 8 assists, 3 steals, and 2 rebounds.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Friday, March 21 in New Jersey to play the Nets at 5:30 pm mountain time. Neither the Nuggets nor the Nets will be playing on back to back nights.

NUGGETS 1 HOME

The Pistons Beat the Nuggets at Their Own Game 136-120

2008-03-19T23:13:00.000-07:00

The Pistons usually defeat the Nuggets by slowing the game down and by disrupting and defending the Nuggets’ on the fly offense well enough to grind out a win. This time, they played the game on what are supposedly the Nuggets’ terms, and yet the result was exactly the same: the Pistons clearly and relatively easily won, 136-120. The Nuggets needed this win to be able to make up ground against the Golden State Warriors in the race for the last playoff spot in the West. So our task is to determine why the Nuggets could not get it done even when they had the Pistons where they wanted them, in an up tempo game, and even when they needed the win more than the Pistons did, and even though they are about as talented a team in basketball skills as are the Pistons.

The first thing you should understand is that fast breaks are overrated as a strategy. Fast breaks are a medium payoff potential strategy at best, meaning that there are other possible strategies that have bigger payoffs, such as the triangle offense for example. In other words, even when you are getting a substantial number of fast breaks, you will seldom be able to win a game based just on doing well with them.

Furthermore, you have less control over fast breaks than you do over other possible offensive strategies. You never know how many fast breaks you are actually going to get in a game no matter what you do to try to get them. Obviously, the other team has some say as to how many fast breaks you are actually going to get in a game. Some teams are quick enough in terms of defensive anticipation and reaction that they will head off many possible fast breaks at the pass so to speak.

So in this up tempo game, you would have expected the Nuggets to excel in fast break scoring, but not only did they not excel, the Pistons beat them in fast break scoring, 18-11. The Pistons made the fast break strategy look silly in this game, let’s face it. They pretty much made a mockery of the Nuggets’ over emphasis on the fast break.

Now let’s look at the playmaking, or offensive identity. Generally speaking, the more your offense comes from playmaking, and the less it comes from isolation scoring, the more successful your offense is. The Nuggets are the fastest pace team in the NBA. Adjusted for pace, the Nuggets need to get at least 24 assists in a game to be able to say that they have had a decent offensive game. They need at least 29 assists in a game to be able to say that they have succeeded very well in making their offense a quality one through playmaking. In this game, the Nuggets made 31 assists, so they clearly met the gross assists requirement, or guideline if you prefer.

The Pistons are the slowest pace team in the NBA. Adjusted for pace, the Pistons on average need only 21 assists in a game to be able to say that they played a decent offensive game. They need at least 25 assists in a game to be able to say that they have succeeded very well in making their offense a quality one through playmaking. In this game, the Pistons made 41 assists, so they obviously were way above their standard for having a good offensive identity and a well run offense.

So overall the Pistons made 41 assists while the Nuggets made 31, which is exhibit A so to speak to show that the Pistons beat the Nuggets at their own game.

A second guideline you have to meet to have a good offensive identity and a well run offense is that who is doing the majority of the playmaking needs to be established, known by all the players, and be as consistent as possible from game to game. In other words, to put it simply, you need to establish who is most responsible for making plays. It sounds simple and obvious, but the truth is that the Nuggets have not done this in a clear enough and consistent enough way, and it has cost them several games, possibly including this one.

The rule of thumb I like to measure this with is to say that the second requirement is that at least half but no more than 2/3 of all assists should be made by the top two playmaking guards on the team. The number one playmaker generally needs to be a designated point guard, while the number two playmaker can be either another point guard or a shooting guard. You almost never will succeed if a forward is the second of the two playmakers, although it is theoretically possible to succeed in rare circumstances.

This Nuggets-Pistons game was a super drive game; the number of assists exploded because neither team was worrying much about defending. In games that have gone into offensive super drive, because both teams have decided to try to win the game with offense far more than with defense, such as this game, an adjustment to the guideline is needed.

In a super drive offensive game, the number of assists explodes well above normal and so the everyday playmakers are usually not going to dominate the assisting in these types of games as much as they need to dominate the playmaking in ordinary games. Instead of changing the percentage for different number of assists, and having different percentages for different games, which gets annoyingly complicated, you can simply establish a cap on the minimum and maximum number of assists that the two playmaking guards need to get to be able to say that they and the team have done a great job. Assists beyond that, in explosive games like this one, do not need to come from the playmaking guards in the same percentage as usual, because two players can only make so many assists, and because players who don’t normally get many assists will be automatically getting more than usual in a super drive type of game.

The Nuggets are the fastest pace team, and if they get 29 assists, it is beyond doubt that they have played a quality offensive game. In effect, super drive games are where both teams are playing the way the Nuggets normally try to play. So the most logical thing to do is to cap the playmaking guard requirement very close to this number of assists. Basing the requirement on 30 assists seems not only very reasonable, but is mathematically perfect, because 50% of 30 is exactly 15 and 2/3 of 30 is exactly 20. So in summary, the second rule or guideline for determining whether a team has a well run offense is that the top two playmaking guards should make between 1/2 and 2/3 of all assists. However, there is a cap: if the actual number of assists made exceeds 30, the rule is that the top two playmakers on the team should make between 15 and 20 assists.

So now that we have slogged through that, let’s get to the really good stuff; let’s see who had the better run offense. The top two Nuggets guards playmakers were Iverson and Carter. Iverson made 11 assists and Carter made 4 assists, for a total of 15 assists. So the Nuggets just barely made it into the range for a super drive game, which is 15-20. So you can’t say that the offense failed, but you can’t say that it greatly succeeded either, because it is better to be higher into the 15-20 range. It would have been better if Iverson and Carter had combined for 1-5 more assists.

Now let’s look at the Pistons. The top two playmaking guards were Billups and Stuckey. Billups made 10 assists and Stuckey made 6 assists. So the Pistons’ top two playmakers made 16 assists and met the minimum requirement in a super drive game plus one. The Pistons’ playmakers were 1 better than the Nuggets’ playmakers were. Is this a large difference? No, but the fact is that even this seemingly small difference is significant in a professional basketball game between two extremely talented teams. And once again, the Pistons were playing on the Nuggets turf so to speak, a very up tempo game, and they defeated the Nuggets at their own game by having their playmakers do a little better than the Nuggets’ playmakers did.

In other words, and this is an extremely important point, there is a mismatch between how the Nuggets want to play and what they are doing to play that way. It is the Nuggets and not the Pistons who want to play up tempo, and yet it was the Pistons who were better at running an up tempo game. They made 41 assists in total to just 31 for the Nuggets. And they were slightly better in terms of offensive identity, of getting playmaking from their established playmakers,

Finally, it has to be noted that the Nuggets had the guard positions reversed from the usual pattern. In the great majority of well run offenses, the point guard dominates the shooting guard in assisting. For the Pistons, the SG Hamilton made only 3 assists in this game, an almost insignificant number compared to Billups and Stuckey, who are both point guards. So Hamilton, along with both forwards and the center, were concentrating on scoring most of the time, and went for only obvious assists. Meanwhile, the Nuggets failed to win the game with their opposite approach. They had their shooting guard, Allen Iverson, make far more assists than their point guard, Anthony Carter, did. Carter is not an aggressive scorer, although he is a more efficient scorer this season than expected. But since you can’t possibly get the quantity of scoring you need to win a game from Carter, the Nuggets were, as usual, relying on Iverson for scoring too.

To make this even clearer, while the Pistons were relying on Richard Hamilton for scoring and on mostly Chauncey Billups for playmaking, the Nuggets were relying mostly on Allen Iverson for scoring and on mostly Allen Iverson for playmaking. Even someone in high school can probably understand that the team that relies on two specialized players to get two jobs done has the better chance of winning over a team that relies on just one player to get the two jobs done. Although Iverson/Carter made 15 assists while Billups/Hamilton made 13, Iverson/Carter scored 25 points while Billups/Hamilton scored 38. So the Billups/Hamilton combination was better than the Iverson/Carter combination. Had the Iverson/J.R. Smith combination been the relevant comparison, the game could have turned out differently.

The bottom line is that the Pistons out managed the Nuggets at their own type of game. They made more total assists, they had a slightly better playmaking identity, and they had the guards set up in the way that is most commonly successful, whereas the Nuggets were using the more unusual and generally less successful shooting guard as playmaker approach.

PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 40%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 75%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 55%. However, at the same time the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, and there is no 9th playoff seed. By far the main way the Nuggets can make the playoffs is by beating out the Golden State Warriors for the 8th and final seed in the West. If the Nuggets and the Warriors finish with identical records though, the Warriors will most likely be the team that makes the playoffs, not the Nuggets. This is because the tie breaker, assuming the two split their season series 2-2, will be who has the better Western Conference record, and the Warriors are 3 games ahead in the loss column on that right now.

So it seems right now that the Warriors and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last playoff spot in the West. Both of them are considered likely to make the playoffs in statistical terms, but most likely one of them will fail to make the playoffs. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Warriors are favored over the Nuggets to get the 8th spot. The Suns made a poor trade, but they have been on a winning streak lately, and they have won several key games, which means they may not be in a lot of danger of falling out of the playoffs after all. Key recent Suns’ victories include a win over the Spurs on March 9 and a win over the Warriors on March 13. But it is way too early to claim that the trade was not a mistake after all and that Shaquille O’Neal will work out for the Suns.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to full speed, especially since George Karl is notorious for taking forever to work a player he is not sold on back into the rotation following an injury. So it’s still unknown whether Atkins is ready to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs, and whether Karl will give him enough minutes if he is ready. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a lower percentage chance than 55% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs.

In summary, the Lakers, the Rockets, the Hornets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Mavericks are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, the Suns are near locks, and the Warriors are favored over the Nuggets for the final, 8th spot. The Rockets have become total locks now, despite the loss of Yao Ming for the season, thanks to their 22-game winning streak. The Suns are still in some trouble, due to their poor trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, but they are in less trouble after their key early March wins at home over the Spurs and the Warriors.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
1. Lakers 57-25
2. Rockets 56-26
3. Hornets 54-28
4. Jazz 54-28
5. Spurs 53-29
6. Mavericks 53-29
7. Suns 53-29
8. Warriors 50-32

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
9. Nuggets 49-33

The Warriors are now 1 1/2 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last playoff spot. The schedules of the two teams are roughly equal difficulty from here on out. If the Nuggets make up the 1 1/2 games, so that the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games. The Nuggets and Warriors have each won one game in the head to head series so far.

Now that the Nuggets are 1 1/2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are almost certainly out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain slightly more likely to make the playoffs than do the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are more likely than the Warriors to get the last spot. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT
Wed, Mar 19 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Fri, Mar 21 Houston 10:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ LA Lakers 9:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM
Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM
Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM

NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT
Wed, Mar 19 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM
Fri, Mar 21 @ New Jersey 7:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ Toronto 3:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM
Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM
Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM

At this point the odds for whether the Nuggets will make the playoffs are still close to 50%, creating the maximum possible drama. It is going to be a very close call. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 10-5 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 9-6 will probably not be good enough and 8-7 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 11-4 in their last 15 games.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is extremely unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 7%. The odds that the Utah Jazz will win the Northwest are 93% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch.

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME
Allen Iverson: suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. X-rays were negative, and he remains probable for the 76’ers game on March 19.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 32 straight games. He is out until at least April, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season.

PISTONS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
All Pistons on the roster were available.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 19, 2008

The Nuggets are under a GREEN ALERT, on account of the following problems.

NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES
1. Nene illness 14 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
None.

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
NOTICE: THIS SECTION NEW AND IMPROVED as of March 19, 2008
EXTREME PLAYING TIME DECISIONS CONSTITUTING AN ERROR
At any given time, Karl may be doing one or more of the following:

1. He may be imposing a draconian penalty by completely benching a player who should not be benched unless the Nuggets want to shoot themselves in the foot or the head.
2. He may be severely under playing a player, either due to an excessive penalty for some mistake the player has made, a miscalculation of the benefits and costs of that player, or due to subjective factors up to and including extreme dislike of a player and a desire to make sure that the player is removed from the team in the off-season.
3. He may be over playing and over relying on one or more very experienced and talented veterans.

The new system we will use will employ the ranges of playing time minutes that are considered reasonable for the Nuggets. These are plenty large enough ranges to allow for plenty of coaching discretion, but if the playing time is outside of these ranges, it is clearly a coaching error:

Allen Iverson: 32-42
Carmelo Anthony: 30-42
Marcus Camby: 28-38
Kenyon Martin: 24-32
J.R. Smith: 22-34
Linas Kleiza: 16-28
Eduardo Najera: 16-24
Chucky Atkins: 14-22
Anthony Carter: 12-20
Yakhouba Diawara: 0-14
Taurean Green: 0-10
Steven Hunter: 0-10

Playing times lower than the minimum or higher than the maximum are coaching errors, and are usually charged at the rate of 1 alert system point for each 2 minutes of error. If a player is injured or sick to any extent, then this rule does not apply. Nor will the rule apply in games in which there is garbage time, except in the case of players who are playing below their minimum minutes on a repeated basis.

EXTREME PLAYING TIMES CONSTITUTING COACHING ERROR FOR THIS GAME:

Anthony Carter: Overplayed, 3 points
J.R. Smith: Underplayed, 4 points

If you think this is bad, think again. This current toll of playing time errors is actually light by Karl’s standards.

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, usually reduces the damage. But Iverson does not control everything of course, and the lack of any real consistency in how the offense is run leads to damaging problems that can appear at any time. But these problems are much more likely to appear just when the Nuggets can least afford them, when they are playing one of the best teams in the NBA.

At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Carmelo Anthony to some extent and Anthony, one of the top two scorers on the team, was not getting the ball enough. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding. But the problem has shown signs of coming back again lately. If that problem appears when the Nuggets are playing an elite team, the Nuggets’ chances of winning the game go down substantially. Guess what? This problem appeared in this game, and did in fact help cause the Nuggets to lose.

Another big problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the main playmaker in the game: Iverson, Carter, Atkins, or some combination. More importantly, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes. If Iverson has decided to run the point, as he always does to one extent or another, he counts as a point guard whether he is labeled one by the coaching staff or not.

In general, and as always in the Karl era, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. True, they have plays they commonly run on the fly, but the players obviously don’t know about them in advance; they happen randomly. The offense is pretty much an unscripted, recreation department pick-up game style of offense.

How good your defense is is determined more by effort and skill than by strategy. For defense, strategy and tactics are less important than on offense. But they are still important, especially in a close game versus a good team. One thing that determines how well a team can defend is whether it has matched up the best and most appropriate players to guard the various offensive threats of the other team. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The correct choice usually will vary during each game. The decision is frequently made on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. But despite the fact that strategy and tactics are relatively important, the most important things with respect to defending is overall effort, hustle, anticipation of where the play is going, skill in avoiding unnecessary fouls, and ability to rotate off screens and picks.

This games’ toll due to the lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 3 Points. Obviously, this didn’t hurt the Nuggets much while they scored 120 points against the Pistons, which is a good defensive team.

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 3 Points.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 27, which constitutes GREEN ALERT.

GREEN ALERT (20-29): There are minor problems whose total impact is very small. There is very little effect on the team’s ability to win games against teams from any level.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS
All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any. We use 15 alert status points as constituting a difference.

IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME
The alert status system is still relatively new, but a preliminary estimate of what the game points advantage will be for each 15 points of alert status points difference has been made, and that estimate is 3-5 points. For now we will use 4 points for each 15 alert status points. The Home court advantage has also been estimated to be 3-5 points and we use 4 points for it. The extra rest advantage is very uncertain, and would differ a little from team to team, but it must be at least as much as the home court advantage. For now, until we can study it more, we will use 4 points for the extra rest advantage. In summary, we are using 4 points for each of the three outside factors.

OBSERVATIONS ON PISTONS STATUS
Every single player on the roster was available, and Flip Saunders is a quality coach, and the Pistons have a very nicely constructed lineup, so the best estimate is that the Pistons alert status was NO Alert, and that they were roughly 15 points or 1 level better off than the Nuggets for this game. The Pistons were home. Neither team was playing on back to back nights. In summary, the Pistons had about an 8 point edge over the Nuggets due to outside factors. They won by 16, so they still would have won even without the outside advantages.

OBSERVATIONS ON NUGGETS STATUS
George Karl has been doing well with the rotations lately; no one is benched who should not be, and the offense has been in super drive against poor and average defensive teams. All of these things have helped to push the alert status down to GREEN Alert.

Atkins has been removed from the unusual player slump designation. The best news of the month for the Nuggets is that Atkins has, in effect, finally arrived in Denver. This might give the Nuggets just enough 3-point shooting firepower to keep up with the Warriors in the race for the final playoff spot, as long as Atkins gets playing time.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. However, since all other injuries are history, and since J.R. Smith has played so well that he is neither benched nor severely shortchanged of minutes these days, the Nuggets might be able to stay in the NO alert to GREY alert range, avoiding being disadvantaged to all but the lucky and perfectly managed elite teams.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Pistons 10
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Pistons 9

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 37
Pistons Non-Starters Points: 56

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 5
Pistons Non-Starters Rebounds: 21

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 5
Pistons Non-Starters Assists: 14

THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME
None of the players who played 6 or minutes were garbage time only players. The Nuggets did not recognize garbage time in this game, the Pistons recognized the final 3 minutes of the game as garbage time. Coach Flip Saunders put forward one more non-starter than did George Karl, giving him an extra wild card chance to do damage to the Nuggets. It wasn’t needed.

It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. Right now he is forced to, because pushing J.R. Smith below 10 minutes is out of the question the way he is playing, and there is a huge mess at PG which requires Karl to play 2 official point guards for much more than 10 minutes each. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery and when Karl refused to name Iverson as the official point guard. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs. So Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets’ only hope at the position in the playoffs and in the stretch run to make the playoffs for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is inconsistent so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, and so Carter still has to play a lot of minutes also.

The Pistons non-starters utterly destroyed the Nuggets’ non-starters, 56-37 in points, 21-5 in rebounds, and 14-5 in assists. This is commonly what you see when the Nuggets’ simple approach to playing basketball comes up against a team that employs strategies and tactics to a greater extent, and against a team that has integrated it’s non-starters into the overall offense better than have the Nuggets.

STARTERS
Points: Nuggets 83 Pistons 80
Rebounds: Nuggets 28 Pistons 27
Assists: Pistons 28 Nuggets 26

The Nuggets starters narrowly defeated the Pistons starters in scoring 83-80, and in rebounding, 28-27. The Pistons starters narrowly defeated the Nuggets starters in assisting, 28-26.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-PISTONS PLAYER RATINGS
Ratings above 40 indicate superstar power performers
Ratings of 30-39 indicate star power performers.
Ratings of 20-29 indicate key role player performers.
Ratings of 10-19 indicate role player performers.
Ratings of 0-9 indicate unimportant players

NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Carmelo Anthony: Game 40.9 Season 39.0
Marcus Camby: Game 39.6 Season 32.7
Allen Iverson: Game 37.6 Season 41.1
Kenyon Martin: Game 25.5 Season 23.1
Eduardo Najera: Game 16.3 Season 13.2
J.R. Smith: Game 16.0 Season 16.5
Linas Kleiza: Game 15.2 Season 18.4
Chucky Atkins: Game 12.7 Season 10.4
Anthony Carter: Game 10.0 Season 20.0

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness

Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

PISTONS PLAYER RATINGS
Rasheed Wallace: Game 40.5 Season 26.3
Richard Hamilton: Game 35.7 Season 28.6
Jason Maxiell: Game 34.8 Season 15.1
Jarvis Hayes: Game 31.9 Season 11.0
Chauncey Billups: Game 29.6 Season 32.2
Tayshaun Prince: Game 28.1 Season 24.0
Rodney Stuckey: Game 25.9 Season 11.4
Antonio McDyess: Game 17.4 Season 20.7
Amir Johnson: Game 10.5 Season 9.3
Juan Dixon: Game 5.8 Season 7.6

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the strength and defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Nene, Najera, and Diawara.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
The remarkable thing about the Nuggets in this game is that nobody was well above normal or well below normal except for Carter, who was only half as productive as usual. It was as if the Nuggets all set out to play their average game for this season so far, no better and no worse. Camby, Martin, and Najera were slightly above normal, while Iverson and Kleiza were slightly below normal. Anthony and J.R. Smith were almost exactly normal. Atkins cooled off after several hot games in a row.

The Nuggets’ power performers for the game were the same as the power performers for the season: Anthony, Camby, and Iverson. The Pistons had 4 power performers: Wallace, Hamilton, Maxiell, and Hayes.

Among players who were key role players or better, the Pistons had 7 while the Nuggets had only 4.

SF Jarvis Hayes was more than 3 times more productive than usual, while PG Rodney Stuckey and PF Jason Maxiell were more than twice as productive as usual.

PF Wallace was half again more productive than usual, while SG Hamilton was about 1/4 more productive than usual.

SF Prince was slightly more productive than usual while PG Billups and C McDyess were slightly less productive than usual.

Among the low minutes players, neither PF Johnson nor SG Dixon were substantially better or worse than average.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-PISTONS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Jarvis Hayes, Det 1.876
2. Amir Johnson, Det 1.500…Johnson played only 7 minutes.
3. Chauncey Billups, Det 1.410
4. Rasheed Wallace, Det 1.350
5. Richard Hamilton, Det 1.322
6. Carmelo Anthony, Den 1.319
7. Marcus Camby, Den 1.238
8. Rodney Stuckey, Det 1.233
9. J.R. Smith, Den 1.143
10. Jason Maxiell, Det 1.088
11. Kenyon Martin, Den 1.063
12. Tayshaun Prince, Det 1.041
13. Allen Iverson, Den 0.940
14. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.800
15. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.776
16. Antonio McDyess, Det 0.725
17. Chucky Atkins, Den 0.706
18. Anthony Carter, Den 0.435
19. Juan Dixon, Det 0.363

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The best player on the court was Jarvis Hayes of the Pistons, who reached the rarely reached “amazing happens” level. There were two Pistons superstars: Billups and Johnson in limited minutes.

There were 5 star-plus players: Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton, and Rodney Stuckey for the Pistons, and Carmelo Anthony and Marcus Camby for the Nuggets. Jason Maxiell for Detroit and J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin for the Nuggets were plain old stars.

Among the 11 players who were stars or better, the Pistons had 7 and the Nuggets had 4. One of these 7 Pistons was limited minutes.

Prince was outstanding and just barely missed star. Iverson was outstanding for the Nuggets.

Kleiza for the Nuggets was very good. Najera and Atkins were good for the Nuggets, while McDyess was good for the Pistons.

Carter was very poor for the Nuggets, while Dixon was extremely poor for the Pistons. Among players who were mediocre or worse, each team had only 1.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Anthony Carter: +0
Kenyon Martin: -2
Allen Iverson: -7
Chucky Atkins: -8
Carmelo Anthony: -10
J.R. Smith: -11
Marcus Camby: -12
Linas Kleiza: -13
Eduardo Najera: -17

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 13, Team 0, Anthony 2, Atkins 0, Camby 3, Carter 1, Iverson 3, Kleiza 1, Martin 2, Najera 1, Smith 0

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 19, Anthony 3, Atkins 1, Camby 3, Carter 2, Iverson 0, Kleiza 2, Martin 2, Najera 4, Smith 2

Anthony Carter played 26 minutes and was 2/5 and 1/1 on 3’s for 5 points, and he made 4 assists.

Chucky Atkins played 19 minutes and was 3/5 and 1/3 on 3’s for 7 points, and he made 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block.

Eduardo Najera played 21 minutes and was 4/8 and 2/5 on 3’s for 10 points, and he made 3 assists and 1 rebound.

Linas Kleiza played 21 minutes and was 3/5, 2/4 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 10 points, and he made 3 rebounds.

Allen Iverson played for most of the game, 41 minutes, and was 5/11 and 10/13 from the line for 20 points, and he made 11 assists, 2 steals, and 2 rebounds.

Kenyon Martin played 30 minutes and was 7/11 and 2/3 from the line for 16 points, and he made 4 steals, 2 rebounds, and 1 block.

J.R. Smith played 15 minutes and was 4/7 and 2/4 on 3’s for 10 points, and he made 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 rebound.

Marcus Camby played 33 minutes and was 7/9 and 1/2 from the line for 15 points, and he made 11 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal.

Carmelo Anthony played 35 minutes and was 8/15, 2/3 on 3’s, and 9/12 from the line for 27 points, and he made 5 assists, 3 steals, and 2 rebounds.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Wednesday, March 19 in Philadelphia to play the 76’ers at 5 pm mountain time. The Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights, but the 76’ers will not be, so the 76’ers will have both the home court and the extra rest advantages.

Enjoy it Now: The Denver Nuggets Set Records While Dominating the Supersonics 168-102

2008-03-17T22:33:00.000-07:00

Just as cats play with mice before eating them, the Nuggets played with the Seattle Supersonics and routed them 168-102 at the Pepsi Center in Denver. Cats are cats and the Nuggets are the Nuggets. Unable to fully compete with let alone win a convincing victory over the top handful of teams in the West, they have taken every opportunity this year to remind everyone that lack of talent in general and scoring punch in particular is not one of the reasons why they can’t get to the top. The Nuggets are saying to us, “We are right up there with the Lakers and the Spurs and the Jazz, because we can dominate teams like the Sonics at least as much as they do.” But if you open the attachment to that email, the Nuggets are saying “Somebody help us, because we still don’t know much of anything about beating the Lakers, the Spurs, or the Jazz, and we may not even make the damn playoffs.”

When we look back on the 2007-08 Nuggets, we will remember the season as the best of times, but also as the worst of times.

Is help on the way in the form of a new coaching staff for 2008-09? Probably not, because the Nuggets have won most of the games they could win such as they are, with the aid of some luck by the way, and because high dollar coach contracts are like high dollar player contracts, they tend to keep the beneficiary in one place until the contract term is over or at least almost over. It’s as if the Nuggets have done just enough to make sure that Karl is not forced to retire or move to another team even if they fail to make the playoffs, but no more than that. Another way to think of it is that it is like Chinese water torture if you think Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby, and company should at least be able to make an appearance in the playoffs even if they get bounced out quickly. The worst torture scenario is where the Nuggets don’t even get to appear in the playoffs, yet George Karl returns for another year. You were hoping there might not be a sequel, but here it comes: “Karl and the Nuggets 5: The Terror of Futility Returns,” or something like that.

Before anyone jumps out a tall building (leave that for the stock brokers) it is possible that Karl will cut down on his mistakes next year, for any number of possible reasons. He might be instructed to do things differently by the general manager or even by the owner of the team. He might be persuaded to do things differently by one or more assistant coaches. He might try things he hasn’t tried before and pick the right things more or less by accident. He might even visit any of dozens of web sites and forums where he can get free advice on what to do. There was, for example, a nice piece on Slam recently about how the Nuggets resemble the Weekend Warriors squad that plays at the neighborhood rec center gym.

It was the second Nuggets dismantling of the poor Sonics, who have enough trouble as it is trying to prevent that rich Oklahoma guy from removing their team from the Great Northwest. And Kevin Durant may be rookie of the year, as Allen Iverson was 11 years ago, but to the Nuggets in this game he was little more than a mouse.

Almost everyone hates mice, but not everyone hates the Supersonics, so one major basketball writer was quoted as saying that George Karl may have been ordering the Nuggets to run up the score in games where the Nuggets can unleash their talent without being hassled by a quality defense. According to said writer, Karl might be doing so as a hedge or a cushion against being swept away and forced to retire if the Nuggets fail to make the playoffs. Wow, I never thought I would see the day when someone who was not me would come up with an interesting Karl conspiracy theory that didn’t involve a brawl. Is Karl actually guilty of the hypothesized conspiracy? Probably not, but he is guilty of not providing the Nuggets with enough confidence and smarts with which they could compete with the Lakers, the Rockets, the Spurs, the Hornets, and the Jazz. To me, that is enough of a conspiracy already.

For the record, here were the marks set in this demolition derby. Enjoy these now kiddies, because the next episodes of the Nuggets soap opera might be real tear jerkers: There will be a lot of drama and probably a lot of grief as the Nuggets, the Titanic of the NBA, is heading straight for icebergs in the dark Atlantic night.

1. The Nuggets set the NBA season high for points in a half with 84 points.
2. The Nuggets set the NBA season high for points in a game with 168 points.
3. The Nuggets set a franchise record for most points in a regulation game.
4. The Nuggets scored 48 points in the 1st quarter.
5. The Nuggets scored 49 fast break points.
6. The Nuggets scored 64 points in the paint.
7. The Nuggets won the game by 52 points and had a 55 point lead at one point.
8. The Nuggets made 44 assists.
9. The Nuggets made 12 steals and 10 blocks.
10.The Nuggets had 10 different players score in double digits, and Anthony Carter just missed being the 11th with 8 points.

And I know it’s rude to go from a high positive to a low negative, but I don’t feel very guilty about it because the Nuggets themselves constantly have their fans on the roller coaster. They beat the Celtics one day and lose to the Bucks a few days later. So therefore, I will close this report with a nice summary of reasons why the Nuggets remain in danger of not making the playoffs, other than the obvious fact that the Western Conference is loaded with 9 very good teams, and only 8 playoff spots are available.

A HANDY SUMMARY LIST OF REASONS WHY THE NUGGETS WILL NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS UNLESS THEY GET LUCKY
1. J.R. Smith does not start and his minutes are no more than 2/3 of what they should be at a minimum. The Nuggets are denied the potential of the Good J.R. Smith because they are irrationally terrified of the Bad J.R. Smith. Smith’s minutes per game have been limited to just 18.5 minutes per game so far and he has been benched entirely from time to time and almost benched entirely from time to time.

2. The Nuggets refuse to admit that Iverson is the best PG on the team and make the logical decision of designating him for that crucial position. As a result, when Iverson chooses to take over PG duties from Carter during a game, Carter becomes of little value, because he is not even remotely qualified as a shooting guard, and having two point guards on the floor at the same time, one of whom is a low rate scorer, makes almost no sense.. When Iverson chooses to mostly not take over the PG duties, Carter may or may not be good enough to be an effective point guard, mostly depending on who the Nuggets are playing. If the Nuggets are playing a team that Carter can not operate well against, and Iverson has decided to go all out for scoring, the Nuggets in effect become a 0 point guard offense, which spells doom. Furthermore, the backcourt of Carter and Iverson is too small and has cost the Nuggets dearly defensively.

3. The Nuggets are too obsessed with fast pace and fast breaks. Good defensive teams almost always dictate the pace and mostly or completely shut down any Nuggets intention to run a fast pace. And good and even average offensive teams sometimes respond by picking up their pace, and the Nuggets’ defense is not polished enough to deal with a fast paced opponent, so the Nuggets give up way too many points in those games. For example, consider the Chicago 135 Denver 121 game.

4. The Nuggets fail to have at least one play to run whose objective is to get each and every player the type of shot that he is most likely to make and that will most benefit the team. For example, they have no play to run to make sure that Yakhouba Diawara can get an open look 3-pointer attempt from time to time. I would be happy if the Nuggets had one planned play for each player, with 3 different planned plays ready for Carmelo Anthony and for Allen Iverson.

5. The loss of Nene has been devastating, and the team should have gotten serious about declaring once and for all whether he is coming back this season or not. Leaving it in limbo has created uncertainty. Like with the stock market, it is uncertainty that kills a basketball team. Nuggets fans are being teased about Nene returning, and being teased is not a good experience.

6. Camby and especially Iverson play too many minutes and occasionally run out of gas, making them of little value late in games.

7. Camby does not attack the rim enough on offense. To put what is really the same problem a little differently, for a center, Camby looks to pass too much. Also, Camby’s style of defending does not work very well against certain big men.

8. Yakhouba Diawara does not come off the bench for 10-20 minutes in games where his defending would help.. In games in which Yak has played at least 16 minutes, the Nuggets are 9-1. So naturally Yak doesn't play 16 minutes or more anymore, because this is the Nuggets, America’s cart before the horse basketball team.

9. The Nuggets’ 3-point shooting is a joke this year, and it’s not only because J.R. Smith does not play enough. Carmelo Anthony has been pressured to do what any decent forward or center can do, rebound, while he has not been under any pressure to speak of to increase his 3-point shot attempts and makes. This is despite the fact that Anthony was the number one three point shooter for Team USA last summer. He has sporadically tried to do this on his own, but he is not committed to it like he is committed to the rebounding, which is much less valuable to the Nuggets when all is said and done than 3-point shooting is.

10. As a result of problem #9, and because the Nuggets are not a great midrange jump shooting team, and because they rarely run a planned play, the Nuggets have become too obsessed with attacking the rim and hoping to get a lot of free throws. Unless you are playing great man to man defending teams such as the Pistons or the Spurs, hoping to be bailed out by the refs enough to win games is usually not a good strategy. The refs can seem blind on some nights and on those nights you had better have another strategy ready other than trying to earn a lot of free throws. It’s bad enough when a game is being called loosely, but it’s even worse when defenders who know how to plant and flop against a rim attacker, result in a lot of offensive foul calls against players such as Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, and J.R. Smith. The Nuggets have often been seen in the last few weeks protesting that foul calls were not made, instead of hustling back on defense.

PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 45%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 75%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 63%. The Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 8th seed in the Western Conference. However, the projection has the Nuggets and the Warriors both finishing with a record of 50-32, and if these two teams do in fact finish with identical records, the Warriors will most likely be the team that makes the playoffs, not the Nuggets. This is because the tie breaker, assuming the two split their season series 2-2, will be who has the better Western Conference record, and the Warriors are 3 games ahead in the loss column on that right now.

In any event, it seems right now that the Suns, the Warriors, and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last 2 playoff spots in the West. All three of them are considered likely to make the playoffs, in statistical terms, but not all three are actually going to make it. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Suns are favored over both the Warriors and the Nuggets to get the 7th spot, and which is saying that you can flip a coin as to who will get the 8th spot between the Warriors and the Nuggets. The Suns’ victory over the Spurs on March 9 and their victory over the Warriors on March 13 gave them a major boost over the Warriors and the Nuggets.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to full speed. It’s still unknown whether Atkins can help to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs, and whether Karl will give him enough minutes if he is ready. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a lower percentage chance than 63% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs.

The Lakers, the Rockets, the Hornets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Mavericks are currently considered locks to make the playoffs. The Rockets have become total locks now, despite the loss of Yao Ming for the season, thanks to their 21-game winning streak. The Suns are in some trouble, due to their terrible trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, but they are in less trouble after their key early March wins at home over the Spurs and the Warriors. At this time, Nuggets 1 does not believe that the Suns will fail to win at least 51 games, so they will most likely finish ahead of the Nuggets despite their difficulties.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
Lakers 57-25
Rockets 57-25
Hornets 54-28
Jazz 54-28
Spurs 53-29
Mavericks 53-29
Suns 52-30
Nuggets 50-32

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
Warriors 50-32

As explained above, the Warriors are actually still more likely than the Nuggets to get the 8th spot, so I would reverse #8 and #9.

The Warriors are now 1 1/2 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last playoff spot. The schedules of the two teams are roughly equal difficulty from here on out. If the Nuggets make up the 1 1/2 games, so that the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games. The Nuggets and Warriors have each won one game in the head to head series so far.

Now that the Nuggets are 1 1/2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are almost certainly out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain slightly more likely to make the playoffs than the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are more likely than the Warriors to get the last spot. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT
Tue, Mar 18 @ Sacramento 10:00 PM
Wed, Mar 19 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Fri, Mar 21 Houston 10:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ LA Lakers 9:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM
Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM
Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM

NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT
Tue, Mar 18 @ Detroit 7:30 PM
Wed, Mar 19 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM
Fri, Mar 21 @ New Jersey 7:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ Toronto 3:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM
Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM
Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM

At this point the odds for whether the Nuggets will make the playoffs are very close to 50%, creating the maximum possible drama. It is going to be a very close call. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 10-6 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 9-7 will probably not be good enough, and 8-8 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 11-5 in their last 16 games.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is very unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 11%. The odds that the Utah Jazz will win the Northwest are 89% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them, and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch.

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME
Allen Iverson: suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. X-rays were negative, and he remains probable for the Pistons game on March 18.
Marcus Camby: suffered a right hip contusion at San Antonio on March 10, and he is probable for the Pistons game on March 18.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 32 straight games. He is out until at least April, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season.

SUPERSONICS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Francisco Elson: He sprained his right knee in the second half of last Wednesday's loss to the Celtics. He left that game and did not return.
Robert Swift: Out for the season as of Feb. 25; an MRI on the injured right knee revealed a torn meniscus.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 17, 2008

The Nuggets are under a GREEN ALERT, on account of the following problems.

NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES
1. Nene illness 14 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
None.

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured.

No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points.

2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver coaches believe are more important than performance on the court.

Neither J.R. Smith nor anyone else partially benched: 0 points.

3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl’s beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here.

The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points. The rotations were reasonable.

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, usually reduces the damage. But Iverson does not control everything of course, and the lack of any real consistency in how the offense is run leads to damaging problems that can appear at any time. But these problems are much more likely to appear just when the Nuggets can least afford them, when they are playing one of the best teams in the NBA.

At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Carmelo Anthony to some extent and Anthony, one of the top two scorers on the team, was not getting the ball enough. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding. But the problem has shown signs of coming back again lately. If that problem appears when the Nuggets are playing an elite team, the Nuggets’ chances of winning the game go down substantially.

Another big problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the main playmakers in the game: Iverson, Carter, Atkins, or some combination. More importantly, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes. If Iverson has decided to run the point, as he always does to one extent or another, he counts as a point guard whether he is labeled one by the coaching staff or not.

In general, and as always in the Karl era, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. True, they have plays they commonly run on the fly, but the players obviously don’t know about them in advance; they happen almost randomly. The offense is pretty much an unscripted, recreation department pick-up game style of offense.

On defense a system is much less important than on offense. How good your defense is is determined much more by effort and skill than by strategy. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The choice varies during each game, and usually depends on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader, as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. At least as important as whether a zone or a man to man defense is in effect is the quality of the actual defending.

Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 0 Points. Obviously, this didn’t hurt the Nuggets while they scored 168 points against the hapless Sonics.

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It’s not anywhere near as bad as some fans think it is.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 14, which constitutes NO ALERT.

NO ALERT (0-19): There are virtually no problems. Teams like the Spurs are in this category from time to time.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS
All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any. We use 15 alert status points as constituting a difference.

IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME
The alert status system is still relatively new, but a preliminary estimate of what the game points advantage will be for each 15 points of alert status points difference has been made, and that estimate is 3-5 points. For now we will use 4 points for each 15 alert status points. The Home court advantage has also been estimated to be 3-5 points and we use 4 points for it. The extra rest advantage is very uncertain, and would differ a little from team to team, but it must be at least as much as the home court advantage. For now, until we can study it more, we will use 4 points for the extra rest advantage. In summary, we are using 4 points for each of the three outside factors.

The two Supersonics who were unavailable are relatively unimportant players, so the Sonics’ alert status was probably high NO alert or low GREEN alert. There was most likely a less than 15 points alert status difference between the two teams. The Nuggets were home, and neither team was playing on back to back nights. So if all outside factors are considered, the Nuggets had a 4 point advantage in this game. Since they won by 52 points, it is obvious that this would have been an historic rout no matter what the outside factors might have been.

George Karl has been doing well with the rotations lately, no one is benched who should not be, and the offense has been in super drive against poor and average defensive teams. All of these things have helped to push the alert status to NO Alert.

Atkins has been removed from the unusual player slump designation. The best news of the month for the Nuggets is that Atkins has, in effect, finally arrived in Denver. This might give the Nuggets just enough 3-point shooting firepower to keep up with the Warriors in the race for the final playoff spot.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. However, since all other injuries are history, and since J.R. Smith has played so well that he is neither benched nor severely shortchanged of minutes these days, the Nuggets might be able to stay in the NO alert to GREY alert range, avoiding being disadvantaged to all but the lucky and perfectly managed elite teams.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 12 Supersonics 12
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 10 Supersonics 10

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 74
Supersonics Non-Starters Points: 40

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 23
Supersonics Non-Starters Rebounds: 23

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 20
Supersonics Non-Starters Assists: 14

THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME
Two Sonics who played 9 minutes were garbage time only players. For the Nuggets, 1 player who played more than 10 minutes, Yakhouba Diawara, was garbage time only, and 2 players who played 9 and 6 minutes were garbage time only. So Karl’s plan was to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes and no one else. Sonics Coach Carlissimo’s plan was to play 10 players 10 or more minutes and no one else. So Carlissimo wanted to have an extra player over Karl, giving the Sonics an extra chance that someone would have a breakout game and help upset the Nuggets.

It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. Right now he is forced to, because pushing J.R. Smith below 10 minutes is out of the question the way he is playing, and there is a huge mess at PG which requires Karl to play 2 official point guards for much more than 10 minutes each. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery and when Karl refused to name Iverson as the official point guard. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs. So Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets’ only hope at the position in the playoffs and in the stretch run to make the playoffs for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is inconsistent so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, and so Carter has to play a lot of minutes also.

The Nuggets’ non-starters outscored the Supersonics non-starters 74-40. The Nuggets’ starters outscored the Supersonics starters 94-76.

Rebounding was tied 23 each among the non-starters. The Nuggets non-starters made 20 assists to 14 for the Sonics’ non-starters. It is highly unusual for the Nuggets non-starters to match the other squad of non-starters in assisting, let alone to be well ahead.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-SUPERSONICS PLAYER RATINGS
Ratings above 30 indicate power performers.
NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Marcus Camby: Game 49.5 Season 32.6
Kenyon Martin: Game 44.9 Season 22.4
Carmelo Anthony: Game 39.3 Season 38.9
Allen Iverson: Game 37.2 Season 41.0
Chucky Atkins: Game 34.7 Season 9.2
J.R. Smith: Game 34.3 Season 16.4
Linas Kleiza: Game 32.1 Season 18.2
Yakhouba Diawara: Game 22.9 Season 5.2
Anthony Carter: Game 19.9 Season 20.2
Eduardo Najera: Game 9.3 Season 13.3
Taurean Green: Game 9.2 Season 2.7
Steven Hunter: Game 4.2 Season 4.1

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness

SUPERSONICS PLAYER RATINGS
Chris Wilcox: Game 35.1 Season 23.5
Kevin Durant: Game 29.6 Season 27.2
Earl Watson: Game 27.6 Season 21.5
Mickael Gelabale: Game 26.3 Season 6.7
Johan Petro: Game 24.5 Season 10.9
Nick Collison: Game 12.6 Season 21.9
Mouhamed Sene: Game 12.0 Season 3.3
Jeff Green: Game 11.1 Season 15.7
Mike Wilks: Game 9.8 Season 5.5
Damien Wilkins: Game 8.7 Season 14.9
Luke Ridnour: Game 8.0 Season 13.2
Donyell Marshall: Game 2.8 Season 6.4

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the strength and defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Nene, Najera, and Diawara.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
There are only 55 power performers in the NBA who average a player rating of 30 or higher, about 2 per team. A team hopes to have at least 3-4 power performers in a game. Astoundingly, 7 Nuggets were power performers in this game.

The top performer on the court was Marcus Camby, who was about half again more productive than usual. There is only 1 player in the NBA who has a higher average rating than Camby scored for this game; LeBron James has an average player rating of 52.3.

Martin was huge against the Grizzlies, much smaller against the Raptors, and huge again in this game. He was twice as productive as usual not counting defending. After a shaky start, Atkins has now played 3 fantastic games in a row, which is the best news of the month and maybe of the year so far for the Nuggets.

Smith was more than twice as productive as usual and Kleiza was not very far from being twice as productive.

Carmelo Anthony made his sky high average almost exactly and Allen Iverson was just 10% short of his monster average.

Carter was average and Najera was below average.

Among Nuggets who played limited minutes, and all in garbage time, Diawara was extremely productive in 13 minutes and Green was extremely productive in 6 minutes. Hunter was average.

The Supersonics had only 1 player who had a power performer rating, PF Wilcox; Wilcox was almost half again more productive than usual.

Because of much more playing time than usual, SF Gelabale was more than 4 times more productive than usual. C Petro was more than twice as productive as usual. PG Watson was almost 1/3 more productive than usual and probable NBA rookie of the year SG Kevin Durant was about 1/10 more productive than usual. Durant is close to being a power performer in his rookie year.

The Supersonics were burdened with 4 players who were just 2/3 as productive as usual. PG Ridnour in limited minutes, PF Collison and SG Wilkins in medium minutes, and SF Green in major minutes were all only about 2/3 as good as usual,

PF Marshall was only half as productive as usual in medium minutes.

PG Wilks did very well and C Sene did extremely well in limited, garbage time minutes.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-SUPERSONICS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Yakhouba Diawara, Den 1.908
2. Marcus Camby, Den 1.904
3. Carmelo Anthony, Den 1.871
4. Taurean Green, Den 1.840…Green played only 5 minutes.
5. Kenyon Martin, Den 1.796
6. Chucky Atkins, Den 1.735
7. J.R. Smith, Den 1.633
8. Chris Wilcox, Sea 1.595
9. Mouhamed Sene, Sea 1.500…Sene played only 8 minutes.
10. Linas Kleiza, Den 1.396
11. Allen Iverson, Den 1.378
12. Mickael Gelabale, Sea 1.315
13. Johan Petro, Sea 1.289
14. Kevin Durant, Sea 1.096
15. Mike Wilks, Sea 1.089…Wilks played only 9 minutes.
16. Earl Watson, Sea 1.022
17. Anthony Carter, Den 0.905
18. Luke Ridnour, Sea 0.727
19. Steven Hunter, Den 0.700…Hunter played only 6 minutes.
20. Nick Collison, Sea 0.630
21. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.581
22. Jeff Green, Sea 0.555
23. Damien Wilkins, Sea 0.414
24. Donyell Marshall, Sea 0.187

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
You see what happens when neither team bothers to play much defense? The stars come out of the woodwork. There were 15 players who were stars or better; the Nuggets had 9 and the Sonics had 6.

The best players on the court were Marcus Camby and Yakhouba Diawara, both of the Nuggets.

There were four Nuggets who reached the amazing happens level, by far the most this year and something that you may not see again for years. Of these, Yakhouba Diawara played limited minutes and Taurean Green played very limited minutes. The two full scale amazing happens players were Marcus Camby and Carmelo Anthony.

Kenyon Martin was right on the border between the amazing happens level and the superstar plus level. The Nuggets had two other superstar-plus players, Chucky Atkins and J.R. Smith. So the Nuggets had 7 players who were superstar-plus or at the very highest, amazing level, while the Supersonics had none.

The Nuggets were so busy flying up the court for numerous fast break scores that they couldn’t be bothered with much defending, so the Sonics had two superstars, Chris Wilcox and Mouhamed Sene in limited minutes.

Linas Kleiza and Allen Iverson were star-plus for the Nuggets, while Mickael Gelabale and Johan Petro were star-plus for the Sonics. Two Sonics were plain old stars: Kevin Durant and former Nugget Mike Wilks in limited minutes.

Watson for the Sonics and Carter for the Nuggets were outstanding.

Ridnour for the Sonics and Hunter for the Nuggets were good, which I think you could say was not really good in a game like this. Collison of Seattle was just mediocre, which I think you could say was actually poor.

Najera for the Nuggets not counting his made you miss defending and Green for the Sonics were poor. Wilkins was very poor for the Sonics and Marshall was a disaster.

Among the 5 players who were mediocre or worse, the Sonics had 4 while the Nuggets had only 1.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Allen Iverson: +40
Marcus Camby: +39
Carmelo Anthony: +36
Kenyon Martin: +34
Anthony Carter: +34
Eduardo Najera: +15
J.R. Smith: +13
Chucky Atkins: +13
Linas Kleiza: +13
Yakhouba Diawara: +12

OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS
I would say that Camby has broken out of his slump, wouldn’t you? There they are friends, the three Nuggets superstars plus Martin thanks to sports medicine, all in the range +34 to +40. Who let the dogs out?

Anthony Carter went along for the ride.

Smith, Kleiza, and Atkins didn’t really play all that much less than did the Nuggets with a plus-minus of +34 or better, so you can conclude that these three players didn’t do much defending at all in this game. Najera and Diawara did not play all that much.

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 14, Team 0, Anthony 0, Atkins 2, Camby 4, Carter 2, Diawara 1, Green 0, Hunter 1, Iverson 2, Kleiza 0, Martin 0, Najera 0, Smith 2

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 19, Anthony 3, Atkins 3, Camby 1, Carter 3, Diawara 0, Green 0, Hunter 2, Iverson 0, Kleiza 1, Martin 3, Najera 1, Smith 2

Steven Hunter played 9 minutes and was 1/2 for 2 points, and he made 2 rebounds.

Anthony Carter played 25 minutes and was 2/3, 1/1 on 3’s, and 3/4 from the line for 8 points, and he made 4 assists, 4 steals and 2 rebounds.

Allen Iverson played 27 minutes and was 8/14 and 8/8 from the line for 24 points, and he made 6 assists and 1 rebound.

Linas Kleiza played 25 minutes and was 6/11, 1/3 on 3’s, and 4/4 from the line for 17 points, and he made 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 1 steal.

Eduardo Najera played 16 minutes and was 0/3, 0/1 on 3’s, and 1/2 from the line for 1 point, and he made 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block and 1 steal.

J.R. Smith played 21 minutes and was 7/15, 4/10 on 3’s, and 1/1 from the line for 19 points, and he made 5 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks and 2 rebounds.

Chucky Atkins played 20 minutes and was 7/10 and 5/8 on 3’s for 19 points, and he made 5 assists, 2 rebounds and 1 steal.

Kenyon Martin played 26 minutes and was 11/13, 1/1 on 3’s, and 0/1 from the line for 23 points, and he made 8 rebounds, 2 blocks and 2 steals.

Taurean Green played 6 minutes and was 2/2 and 1/1 on 3’s for 5 points, and he made 1 assist and 1 rebound.

Carmelo Anthony played 26 minutes and was 10/17, 0/1 on 3’s, and 6/8 from the line for 26 points, and he made 4 assists, 2 rebounds and 1 block.

Marcus Camby played 27 minutes and was 4/6 and 5/5 from the line for 13 points, and he made 15 rebounds, 10 assists, 4 blocks, and 1 steal.

Yakhouba Diawara played 13 minutes and was 3/5 on 3’s and 2/2 from the line for 11 points, and he made 5 rebounds and 3 assists.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Tuesday, March 18 in Detroit to play the Pistons at 5:30 pm mountain time. Neither the Nuggets nor the Pistons will be playing on back to back nights.

Marcus Camby and Allen Iverson are Superstars as the Denver Nuggets Romp over the Toronto Raptors 137-105

2008-03-15T22:43:00.000-07:00

The Raptors are in the middle of the pack as far as pace-adjusted defending is concerned. But take away PF Chris Bosh, the best player on the team, who missed the 8th straight game with a sore right knee, and they fall from there substantially. Put the Bosh-less Raptors in the high altitude Nuggets’ building on a Friday night with a loud crowd, and the Raptors’ defense falls down still more. Put the Bosh-less Raptors up against the Nuggets, who are desperate for wins to keep up with the Warriors for the last playoff spot, and the Raptors are now reduced to hardly any defense at all.

So the Nuggets again did what they have done so often this year, they got a rout win at home against a team that was unable to defend well. The Nuggets totally dismantled and embarrassed the Raptors 137-105 although ironically, it is the Raptors and not the Nuggets who are comfortably on track for a slot in the post season festivities. I guess the Nuggets want to make sure there is absolutely no doubt that they are supposed to be an elite team, even though they have not been able to actually become one.

Silly Nuggets, optical illusions are for web advertisers. You can not be an elite team, Nuggets, unless you rise above all of George Karl’s inferiority complexes, mathematical errors, logical errors, biases, obsessions with dubious psychological theories, and foregone conclusions. You have to join J.R. Smith in the quest to make Karl look like a fool if you want to become an elite team, because Karl thinks you will never be an elite team, and he manages accordingly, creating a self fulfilling prophesy. I’m not saying you have to disrespect Mr. Karl, I’m just saying you should ignore many of his beliefs as you go about your business.

The Nuggets scored 79 points in the first half, the most Toronto has allowed for a half in franchise history. The Raptors also allowed a team-record 44 points in the first quarter. The Nuggets were blown out last year in Toronto in a similar fashion, so this was a kind of returning the favor kind of thing. Had Bosh played, this would have been closer, but the Nuggets still would have won very convincingly.

Last year’s Coach of the Year, Raptors Coach Sam Mitchell, was not happy about how the Raptors gave in to their circumstances. “We’re not guarding anybody, and if you’re not guarding anybody, you’re going to come out of the game.” Notice that his threat applies to anyone on the Raptors, not just to non-starters. And notice that the penalty is being taken out of the game, not being benched for future games. If it were Karl, the threat would apply only to non-starters, and the penalty for any non-starter caught not guarding would be a benching for an unknown number of games in the future. So Karl has bigger penalties, and yet he lowers the boom only on certain players. The fact that Mitchell’s approach to getting players to do what is needed is so much more logical, effective, and reasonable than Karl’s is one of an undoubtedly large number of reasons why Mitchell was the NBA Coach of the Year last year, while Karl was never considered for a moment for that honor.

For the second Friday night in a row, the Nuggets were in a pumped up, take no prisoners mood at the Pepsi Center in Denver, in front of their enthusiastic, thank god it’s Friday type crowd. Unlike last year, the Nuggets this year have learned to feed off their crowd to help them stay pumped up for games. Allen Iverson was always an expert at doing this in Philadelphia, so the Nuggets have finally learned from him how to get the crowd pumped up, and then how to feed off that to get yourself and your teammates pumped up. You play pumped up, which gets the crowd pumped up, and then you can feed off the pumped up crowd to stay pumped up. Iverson’s logic is on point. And Denver may not be a basketball town in general, but March is in between football and baseball, so it is sort of a basketball town in March.

Once the Nuggets started feeding off the crowd and once they understood that the Raptors were not going to keep their disorganized but extremely energetic and athletic offense in check, they just let loose with their athletic talent. They scored 33 fast break points. The only question was how many stars and superstars there would be. The Nuggets ended up with 2 superstars, 3 star-plus players, and one star, Yakhouba Diawara who, however, played just 10 minutes. So the Nuggets had 6 players who were stars or better, whereas the Raptors had 4: Kris Humphries, Rasho Nesterovic, Maceo Baston, and Carlos Delfino.

As the Real Player Ratings show, Marcus Camby was a superstar in this game, He scored 17 points on 6/8 shooting, and he made 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals and a block. This was Camby’s 24th double-double of the season. Camby is so far ahead of the competition that he has already effectively clinched the race for the most blocks of any player. In the rebounding race, Camby is 2nd in the League, with 13.8 rebounds per game, while Dwight Howard of the Magic is first with 14.4 rebounds per game. Howard has just about nailed that race down, but not quite.

The Nuggets’ other superstar was Allen Iverson, who scored 28 points on 9/12 from the field and 10/10 from the line, and who also made 5 assists, 2 steals and a block. Iverson quadrupled his output from his disaster game two nights earlier. Iverson finished more than 10% above his already sky high normal.

A week earlier in the Spurs game, Iverson fractured his right ring finger, but he has been playing despite the injury. He has to put a brace on it except while he is playing. The fracture is not going to finish healing until this summer. Were Iverson to not play the rest of the season, the Nuggets would be toast and all of this drama about how Karl will end up “holding the bag” as coach of the best team in the history of the NBA to not make the playoffs would be much reduced.

The Nuggets, remember, are not only a basketball team; they are also one of the best drama movies you have ever seen. In the Nuggets drama, Iverson is the guy who naïve people think is a bad guy, but is really a good guy. Karl is the guy who naïve people think is a good guy, but is really a bad guy. Carmelo Anthony is the happy go lucky guy who doesn’t allow dramatic things to affect him much, yet he is the one with the most to lose. It’s really a fascinating story, and Nuggets 1 is covering every plot twist.

For the second game in a row, Chucky Atkins provided evidence that the Denver front office may have been right about acquiring him after all. Atkins has suddenly gone from being a liability to being right up there with Iverson and J.R. Smith as the best guards on the team almost overnight. Atkins made five threes and scored a total of 17 points on 5/10 from the field, and 5/8 from long range. He also made 7 rebounds and 4 assists and he did all of these things in just 24 minutes. So Atkins was a star-plus in this game.

He’s a pro,” George Karl said after the game. “He knows how to play, has a sense for the game.” Thank God Atkins has a personality and a brain that Karl accepts.

Another star-plus player was J.R. Smith, who is a regular in the high ratings, but whose brain is not accepted by Karl. He just about tripled his output from the Grizzlies game two nights earlier, and he was almost half again more productive than normal. He crammed in a little of everything in just 17 minutes. He was 5/9 from the field, 2/6 on 3’s, and he made 3 assists, 3 rebounds, a steal and a block. His negatives included 2 turnovers and 3 personal fouls. Before Smith became one of the best 2-guards in the League recently, this was the kind of game that Karl, with his huge anti-Smith bias, would have used to bolster his incorrect calculation that Smith’s negatives exceed his positives. Then he might have benched Smith for the next few games. These days, Karl doesn’t dare bench Smith, although he may be conniving to get most of the minutes that Atkins needs from Smith’s minutes rather than from Anthony Carter’s minutes.

The other star-plus Nugget was Carmelo Anthony, who scored 22 points on 9/17 and 4/5 from the line. He added 6 assists, 3 rebounds and 1 block. When the Nuggets go into super drive mode against a team that is not defending well, all thoughts of making sure that Iverson and Melo get the majority of the shot attempts go out the window. Anyone can take as many shots as they want as long as they get at least halfway open, and as long as they are not contested or off-balance threes, which Karl hates with a passion. So aside from Iverson with 28 points and Anthony with 22, Camby and Atkins scored 17 each, Smith and Carter scored 12 each, and four other Nuggets scored between 5-8 points. So there were 10 Nuggets who scored 5 or more points in this display of how an unstructured offense can be better than a lightly structured one against a team that is not defending well.

Notice I used the term “lightly structured.” I wanted to make the point, in case people who have been reading my reports have gotten the wrong impression, that when I complain about the Nuggets being unstructured, I don’t mean that they should be running planned plays most of the time. Or even half of the time. Even the Spurs don’t run a called play half of the time or more, so far as I know. I would settle for about 1/4 or even 1/5 of the time. If you run a called play every 4th or 5th time down, and you have about a dozen plays in your arsenal, with 3 plays ready for scoring superstars such as Iverson and Melo, then you not only become outstanding at executing those particular plays, but you also have something to fall back on when the shot clock is starting to run down and a great defense is shutting down your on the fly offense. In other words, running plays some of the time has spillover benefits for the rest of the time. And in general you become more confident on offense, so you attempt fewer poor choice shots. Ironically, if only Karl or his assistants would cough up a small number of planned plays, they would get less upset about wild shots, because there would be fewer of them.

PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 45%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 70%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 57%. However, and I know this is a little confusing, the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, meaning that they will not make the playoffs because only 8 teams qualify in each Conference. It seems right now that the Suns, the Warriors, and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last 2 playoff spots in the West. All three of them are considered likely to make the playoffs, in statistical terms, but not all three are going to make it. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Suns and the Warriors are favored in this race. The Suns’ victory over the Spurs on March 9 and their victory over the Warriors on March 13 gave them a major boost over the Warriors and the Nuggets.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that, most likely, Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to good condition. It’s still unknown whether Atkins can help to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a lower percentage chance than 57% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs.

The Lakers, the Rockets, the Hornets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Mavericks are currently considered locks to make the playoffs. However, the Rockets are no longer really total locks, due to the loss of Yao Ming for the season. But I think they are still near locks. The Suns are in some trouble, due to their terrible trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, but they are in less trouble after their key wins at home over the Spurs and the Warriors.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
1. Lakers 58-24
2. Rockets 56-26
3. Jazz 55-27
4. Hornets 54-28
5. Spurs 54-28
6. Mavericks 53-29
7. Suns 52-30
8. Warriors 50-32

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
9. Nuggets 49-33

The Rockets have lost their best player, and one of the best players in the NBA, Yao Ming, for the rest of the season. Therefore, they will probably drop below their current projection, since the projections do not take injuries into account. The Suns will probably drop a little also, because they made a bad trade when they gave up “The Matrix,” Shawn Marion. At this time, however, Nuggets 1 does not believe that either the Rockets or the Suns will fail to win at least 50 games, so they will most likely finish ahead of the Nuggets despite their difficulties.

The Warriors are now 1 1/2 game ahead of the Nuggets for the last playoff spot. The schedules of the two teams are roughly equal difficulty from here on out. If the Nuggets make up the 1 1/2 games, so that the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games. The Nuggets and Warriors have each won one game in the head to head series so far.

Now that the Nuggets are 1 1/2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are almost certainly out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain more likely to make the playoffs than the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are about even with the Warriors in the race. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT
Sat, Mar 15 Memphis 10:30 PM
Tue, Mar 18 @ Sacramento 10:00 PM
Wed, Mar 19 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Fri, Mar 21 Houston 10:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ LA Lakers 9:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM
Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM
Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM

NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT
Sun, Mar 16 Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Mar 18 @ Detroit 7:30 PM
Wed, Mar 19 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM
Fri, Mar 21 @ New Jersey 7:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ Toronto 3:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM
Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM
Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM

So overall, Nuggets 1 agrees with the Hollinger system; as of now, we think the Nuggets will fail to make the playoffs. But it will probably be a very close call, and it still could go either way. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 11-6 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 10-7 will probably not be good enough, and 9-8 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 12-5.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is very unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 6%. The odds that Utah will win the Northwest are 94% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them, and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch.

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME
Allen Iverson: suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. X-rays were negative, and he remains probable for the Supersonics game on March 16.
Marcus Camby: suffered a right hip contusion at San Antonio on March 10, and he is probable for the Supersonics game on March 16.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 29 straight games. He is out until at least the middle of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season.

RAPTORS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Jorge Garbajosa: Ankle and leg injury; out for the season.
Chris Bosh: Suffered a knee injury on March 4, questionable for March 16 game at Sacramento

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 15, 2008

The Nuggets are under a GREEN ALERT, on account of the following problems.

NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES
1. Nene illness 14 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
Chucky Atkins, 1 point

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured.

No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points.

2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver coaches believe are more important than performance on the court.

J.R. Smith was partially benched: 2 points. Smith was about 5 minutes short of the absolute minimum number of minutes reasonable for him.

3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl’s beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here.

The bad use of reserves score for this game is 2 points. The rotations were mostly reasonable.

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, usually reduces the damage. But Iverson does not control everything, of course, and the lack of any real consistency in how the offense is run leads to damaging problems that can appear at any time. But these problems are much more likely to appear just when the Nuggets can least afford them, when they are playing one of the best teams in the NBA.

At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Carmelo Anthony to some extent and Anthony, one of the top two scorers on the team, was not getting the ball enough. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding. But the problem has shown signs of coming back again lately. If that problem appears when the Nuggets are playing an elite team, the Nuggets’ chances of winning the game go down substantially.

And another big problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the main playmakers in the game: Iverson, Carter, Atkins, or some combination. More importantly, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes. If Iverson has decided to run the point, as he always does to one extent or another, he counts as a point guard whether he is labeled one by the coaching staff or not.

In general, and as always in the Karl era, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. True, they have plays they commonly run on the fly, but the players seldom know in advance when they will be running one of those. It’s almost all an unscripted, recreation department style offense.

On defense a system is much less important than on offense. How good your defense is is determined much more by effort and skill than by strategy. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The choice varies during each game, and usually depends on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader, as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. At least as important as whether a zone or a man to man defense is in effect is the quality of the actual defending.

Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 2 Points

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It’s not anywhere near as bad as some fans think it is.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 24, which constitutes GREEN ALERT.

GREEN ALERT (20-29): There are minor problems whose total impact is very small. There is very little effect on the team’s ability to win games against teams from any level.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS
All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any.

IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME
The alert status system is still relatively new, but a preliminary estimate of what the point differential will be for each 1 level difference in the alert status has been made, and that estimate is 3-5 points. The Home court advantage has also been estimated to be 3-5 points, and we use 4 points for it. The extra rest advantage is very uncertain, and would differ a little from team to team, but it must be at least as much as the home court advantage. For now, until we can study it more, we will use 4 points for the extra rest advantage.

The Raptors were most likely in a YELLOW alert, due mostly to the injury to their best player, Chris Bosh. So the Nuggets had a 2 level advantage over the Raptors in alert status, which translates into a 6-10 points advantage. Neither team was playing on back to back nights. The Nuggets were at home. The total Nuggets advantage, counting all external factors, was 10-14 points. The actual victory margin for the Nuggets was 32 points, but after you adjust for the outside factors, the real victory margin for the Nuggets was in the 18-22 points range. In other words, even it Bosh had played, the Nuggets would probably still have won this game in a rout.

George Karl has been doing better with the rotations lately, which has helped to push the alert status to GREEN.

Atkins, in his fifth outing since coming back, played a second fantastic game in a row, so his alert points were slashed to a tiny number. One more decent or better game from Atkins, and we will declare Atkins back in good condition for the stretch run. This is major good news for the Nuggets and is the most important reason why the Nuggets have reached and maintained for more than 1 game a GREEN alert status for the first time this season.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality yet. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. If Nene in fact never returns, and Atkins continues to be a lost cause, and Karl goes back to making his usual mistakes, and if Carter starts to reassert himself at point guard, the Nuggets will range between YELLOW and ORANGE alert status for the rest of the season, and that right there may cost the Nuggets a playoff spot.

And don’t expect George Karl to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 11 Raptors 12
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 10 Raptors 11

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 53
Raptors Non-Starters Points: 55

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 20
Raptors Non-Starters Rebounds: 21

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 10
Raptors Non-Starters Assists: 16

THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME
Yakhouba Diawara who played 10 minutes and Steven Hunter who played 6 minutes played only in garbage time. Had the game not been a rout, neither of these two would have played. George Karl’s real plan was to play 9 Nuggets for 10 minutes or more and the same 9 Nuggets for 6 minutes or more. The Raptors had 1 player who played only garbage time and who would not have played had the game not been a rout. So Coach Sam Mitchell’s real game plan was for 10 players to play 10 or more minutes and for 11 players to play 6 or more minutes. So Mitchell’s plan featured two more players, and two more chances for a surprise huge game, than did Karl’s plan.

If you wonder how Mitchell won last season’s coach of the year award, that is a big reason right there; he is able to effectively use a bigger fraction of his roster than most other coaches can. Coach Karl of the Nuggets is at the low end of the NBA in terms of to what extent he effectively uses non-starters in games. Karl overestimates the gap between the top players and the lower players on his teams.

It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. Right now he is forced to, because pushing J.R. Smith below 10 minutes is out of the question the way he is playing, and there is a huge mess at PG which requires Karl to play 2 official point guards for much more than 10 minutes each. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs and so Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets’ only hope at the position in the playoffs, and in the stretch run to make the playoffs, for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is inconsistent so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, and so Carter has to play a lot of minutes also.

Despite losing the game in a rout, the Raptors’ non-starters ended up slightly better than the Nuggets’ non-starters in points 55-53, and in rebounds 21-20. In assisting, the Raptors’ non-starters were much superior to the Nuggets 16-10.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-RAPTORS PLAYER RATINGS
NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Allen Iverson: Game 46.1 Season 41.0
Marcus Camby: Game 43.1 Season 32.5
Carmelo Anthony: Game 37.6 Season 38.9
Chucky Atkins: Game 32.9 Season 9.2
J.R. Smith: Game 23.0 Season 16.3
Anthony Carter: Game 21.7 Season 20.2
Kenyon Martin: Game 18.2 Season 22.4
Linas Kleiza: Game 13.6 Season 18.2
Eduardo Najera: Game 12.0 Season 13.3
Yakhouba Diawara: Game 11.9 Season 5.2
Steven Hunter: Game 3.6 Season 4.1
Taurean Green: Game -0.4 Season 2.6

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness

RAPTORS PLAYER RATINGS
Anthony Parker: Game 33.3 Season 21.8
Carlos Delfino: Game 31.9 Season 17.4
Rasho Nesterovic: Game 27.4 Season 12.4
Chris Humphries: Game 24.4 Season 10.7
Jamario Moon: Game 22.0 Season 19.4
Maceo Baston: Game 15.7 Season 6.2
Jose Calderon: Game 13.0 Season 29.3
T.J. Ford: Game 10.2 Season 22.9
Joey Graham: Game 10.1 Season 5.7
Jason Kapono: Game 9.0 Season 11.3
Andrea Bargnani: Game 7.5 Season 16.4
Primoz Brezec: Game -0.2 Season 4.1

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the strength and defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Nene, Najera, and Diawara.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
After most of the season was lost, Chucky Atkins has almost overnight finally started playing as if he has a future in Denver after all. J.R. Smith was almost half again better than normal. Camby was almost 1/3 better than normal, which is at least as impressive as Smith, considering Camby’s normal is so high.

Following a miserable game two nights earlier, Iverson turned things completely around, and was about 1/10 better than normal.

Carmelo Anthony, Carter, and Najera all played games that are typical for them.

Martin was about 80% as good as usual and Kleiza was about 3/4 as good as usual.

Among players who played limited minutes, Diawara was by far the best, Hunter was in the middle, and Green was unproductive.

The Raptors had a crazy game in the sense that almost all of their players were either way above or way below normal. There were huge players and there were huge disappointments for them. C Humphreys stepped up big time, but in relatively limited minutes, in the absence of PF Chris Bosh. So did PF Nesterovic in 21 minutes. Both of these players were twice as productive as usual and then some.

Similarly, both of the Raptors’ shooting guards played huge games, so don’t blame this rout on them. Delfino was not far from twice as productive as usual and Parker was half again as productive as his usual.

PF Baston was huge in place of Bosh in 14 minutes; he was about 2 ½ times as productive as usual, with his minutes being almost double his average minutes.

SF Moon was a little above normal. SF Graham was about 40% more productive than usual in 13 minutes.

SF Kapono played 25 minutes, but barely made 3/4 of his normal, which is based on only 19 minutes per game.

By far the biggest disappointments for the Raptors were the point guards Calderon and Ford; both of them were a little less than half as productive as usual.

Doing less damage to the Raptors because of fewer minutes, but still extremely disappointing in the relative sense, was Center Bargnani. Finally, in very limited minutes, Center Brezec was extremely unproductive.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-RAPTOR5 REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Kris Humphries, Tor 1.627
2. Marcus Camby, Den 1.539
3. Allen Iverson, Den 1.441
4. Chucky Atkins, Den 1.371
5. J.R. Smith, Den 1.353
6. Rasho Nesterovic, Tor 1.305
7. Carmelo Anthony, Den 1.253
8. Yakhouba Diawara, Den 1.190
9. Maceo Baston, Tor 1.121
10. Carlos Delfino, Tor 1.100
11. Anthony Parker, Tor 1.041
12. Anthony Carter, Den 0.986
13. Jamario Moon, Tor 0.917
14. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.857
15. Joey Graham, Tor 0.777
16. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.628
17. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.618
18. Steven Hunter, Den 0.600…Hunter played only 6 minutes.
19. Andrea Bargnani, Tor 0.577
20. Jose Calderon, Tor 0.565
21. T.J. Ford, Tor 0.408
22. Jason Kapono, Tor 0.360
23. Primoz Brezec, Tor -0.033…Brezec played only 6 minutes.
24. Taurean Green, Den -0.080…Green played only 5 minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The Raptors were a team of extremes; some Raptors played extremely well while others were playing extremely poorly; there was little in between. The best player on the court was Kris Humphreys of the Raptors, and he was a superstar-plus. There were two plain superstars and both of them were Nuggets: Marcus Camby and Allen Iverson.

The Nuggets also had not one, not two, but three star-plus players, Chucky Atkins, J.R. Smith, and Carmelo Anthony. The Raptors had one star-plus player, Rasho Nesterovic.

Carlos Delfino and Maceo Baston were star players for Toronto and Yakhouba Diawara was a star in 10 minutes for the Nuggets.

In total there were 10 players who were stars or better, a number of stars that you seldom see. Of these, 6 were Nuggets and 4 were Raptors.

Moon and Parker were outstanding for the Raptors and Carter was outstanding for the Nuggets.

Najera was very good for the Nuggets, while Graham was good for the Raptors.

Martin, Kleiza, and Hunter were mediocre for the Nuggets, not counting made you miss type defending.

The Raptors had 4 important players who played poorly to one extent or another. Bargnani and Calderon were poor, while Ford was very poor. Kapono of the Raptors was extremely poor.

Two players who played very limited minutes did almost nothing: Brezec for the Raptors and Green for the Nuggets.

Among the half dozen players who were poor or worse, the Raptors had 5 of them while the Nuggets had only 1 of them.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.
Carmelo Anthony: +28
Allen Iverson: +27
Marcus Camby: +25
Anthony Carter: +20
Linas Kleiza: +16
Kenyon Martin: +15
Eduardo Najera: +13
J.R. Smith: +7
Chucky Atkins: +3
Yakhouba Diawara: +3

OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS
This was a classic Nuggets rout in the sense that the three best Nuggets, Anthony, Iverson, and Camby, had huge plus-minus numbers and they had by far the best numbers of the team. From their surprisingly low numbers, you can make an educated guess that neither Smith nor Atkins played very good defense in this game.

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 10, Team , Anthony 0, Atkins 1, Camby 0, Carter 1, Diawara 0, Green 0, Hunter 1, Iverson 2, Kleiza 1, Martin 1, Najera 1, Smith 2

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 25, Anthony 1, Atkins 3, Camby 4, Carter 1, Diawara 0, Green 0, Hunter 1, Iverson 2, Kleiza 4, Martin 3, Najera 3, Smith 3

Taurean Green played 5 minutes and was 0/1 and 1/2 from the line for 1 point.

Steven Hunter played 6 minutes and was 1/1 and 1/1 from the line for 3 points.

Linas Kleiza played 22 minutes and was 1/6, 0/2 on 3’s, and 6/6 from the line for 8 points, and he made 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal.

Kenyon Martin played 29 minutes and was 2/4 and 1/2 from the line for 5 points, and he made 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks.

Eduardo Najera played 14 minutes and was 2/4, 0/1 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 6 points, and he made 2 rebounds, 1 block, 1 assist, and 1 steal.

Anthony Carter played 22 minutes and was 5/9 and 2/5 on 3’s for 12 points, and he made 4 assists, 1 steal, and 1 rebound.

Yakhouba Diawara played 10 minutes and was 2/4, 0/1 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 6 points, and he made 4 rebounds and 1 steal.

Carmelo Anthony played 30 minutes and was 9/17, 0/1 on 3’s, and 4/5 from the line for 22 points, and he made 6 assists, 3 rebounds, and 1 block.

J.R. Smith played 17 minutes and was 5/9 and 2/6 on 3’s for 12 points, and he made 3 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 block.

Chucky Atkins played 24 minutes and was 5/10, 5/8 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 17 points, and he made 7 rebounds and 4 assists.

Allen Iverson played 32 minutes and was 9/12, 0/1 on 3’s, and 10/10 from the line for 28 points, and he made 5 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block.

Marcus Camby played 28 minutes and was 6/8, 1/2 on 3’s, and 4/6 from the line for 17 points, and he made 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Sunday, March 16 in Denver to play the Supersonics at 7 pm mountain time. Neither the Nuggets nor the Supersonics will be playing on back to back nights.

Kenyon Martin Steps it up as the Nuggets Rout the Hurting Grizzlies 108-86

2008-03-13T22:24:00.000-07:00

Shooting guard Mike Miller got off to a great start, scoring 8 early 1st quarter points, and the Memphis Grizzlies scored the first 10 points of the game, but the Denver Nuggets needed neither intense defense nor a well organized offense to quickly offset that and to go on to rout the Grizzlies the rest of the way in Denver. Miller scored only 4 more points the entire rest of the game, and ended up with 12 points on 3/12 shooting. Two of the other Grizzlies’ starters, PG Conley and Center Darko Milicic, were almost total no shows. Milicic did not play at all in the 2nd half due to a sore foot. A fourth starter, PF Hakim Warrick, was a little better than mediocre but not good enough to threaten the outcome of the game. The fifth starter, SF Rudy Gay, the best player on the Grizzlies right now, was limited to 9 points on 3/8 shooting, and he added 4 rebounds and a block. Life can be kind of miserable when you are lottery bound in March, relieved perhaps only if you curl up with George Karl’s book about the glories of basketball.

Things don’t any more dismal than they are right now for the Grizzlies. This team has lost 16 straight road games and 17 of the last 19 games overall. The only team with a worse pace-adjusted defense than the Grizzlies is the Milwaukee Bucks. And there are only 8 teams with weaker pace-adjusted offenses than the Grizzlies. This franchise has once again become one of the worst teams in the NBA, as it was for so many years when it played in Vancouver, Canada. Why they kept the name I have no idea. The grizzly bears are up there, in the Northwestern region of North America; there are no grizzly bears in the mid-south, and apparently very few great basketball players as well. The few years of respectability, including playoff appearances, are now a fading memory.

So the Grizzlies were no match for the Nuggets, mismanaged as they are. The Nuggets buried the Grizzlies 108-86. Maybe these bears became soft due to being fed too much people food; you know how park rangers are always warning folks to not feed the wildlife.

Kenyon Martin was the most productive player of the game and the game’s only superstar. He was 9/11 from the field and 5/9 from the line for 23 points, and he made 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal.

All three Nuggets who have been slumping to one extent or another took advantage of the opportunity to play a very poor defensive team to get out of their slumps, if only for a day, Marcus Camby pulled down 10 boards and made 6 blocks, 3 assists, and 2 steals. Linas Kleiza played one of his best games in a month, and Chucky Atkins played his best game of the year so far, which is not saying a whole lot considering how few games he has played in. But the best news from this game was that Chucky Atkins finally had a breakout game, which hopefully gets him out of the massive rut he has been in since the beginning of the season, due mostly to his hernia condition now repaired by surgery.

Not counting the special case of Atkins, only Martin and Kleiza were substantially above normal in this game, so you have to attribute the rout more to Memphis being bad then to the Nuggets being great. The Grizzlies were a terrible 32/90 or 35.6% from the field, while the Nuggets were 40/85 or 47.1%. The Grizzlies attempted a huge number of 3’s but made only 6/30 of them, while the Nuggets were 8/19 or 42.1% from downtown. Atkins was 2/3, J.R. Smith was 2/4, and both Najera and Carter were 1/2. Marcus Camby was 1/1, as he made his 5th shot from beyond the arc this season.

The Nuggets finished only slightly ahead in rebounding, but way ahead in assisting. The Nuggets’ offense works extremely well against poor defenses and extremely poorly against great defenses. The Nuggets’ offense is a great meter for measuring how good a defense is. In fact, a coaching staff and a front office could actually use how well the Nuggets do against it’s defense to gage how good a defense they have.

Turnovers were equal, but the Nuggets made 29 assists while the Grizzlies made 20. The Nuggets exceeded their minimum recommended number of assists per game, 25, and did meet the playmaking identity requirement, which is that two guards should make between 1/2 and 2/3 of all the assists. Atkins and Iverson combined to make 15 of the 29 assists.

Other than running the point and assisting, Iverson couldn’t do much. He was playing with a fractured right ring finger, he banged his right knee early in the game, and he was held to eight points on 2-for-12 shooting. J.R. Smith, other than 2/4 from downtown, was also a disappointment in this game.

Anthony Carter is rapidly becoming a permanent disappointment, and it will be George Karl’s fault if this continues, not the fault of Carter himself. In this game, Carter made only 2 assists. Since Iverson has been increasingly running the point as this season has gone along and since Atkins, a true, experienced point guard, has now come back and is starting to play well, it is difficult to justify more than about 10 minutes a game now for Carter. To the extent Carter plays more than 10 minutes from here on out, in effect he is being played as a shooting guard. As long as Atkins continues to play well, the only reason left for Carter to play for more than about 10 minutes is so that Karl can keep J.R. Smith’s minutes in the 15-20 minutes per game, which Karl decided Smith was going to be limited to this year regardless of how well Smith played. The fact that Smith has been one of the best shooting guards in the NBA over the last couple of months is not enough to overcome the Karl anti-Smith bias.

It is very difficult for even an on the fly offense to have difficulty against one of the worst defensive squads in the League. Indeed, the Nuggets have racked up a large number of routs this year against these hapless teams, as if they think that the huge margins can be applied to games against elite teams, especially against teams with the best defenses. The Nuggets can rout teams like the Grizzlies as thoroughly as the Pistons, the Celtics, the Rockets, and the Lakers can, which proves that in theory the Nuggets should be able to compete with those elite teams. But they can’t actually fully compete with those elite teams, because they lack the schemes and practical knowledge necessary to do that.

Does that mean I am not hopeful? No, it means I am doing my job, which is to report why the Nuggets have the fate that they do. Can they defy that fate? Yes, but defying a fate in sports is extremely difficult. For the Nuggets to win a playoff series, it would take at least half a dozen Nuggets to rise up and play better than they have been playing all season long. Not a lot better, but not a trivial amount better either. They would have to compensate for their lack of consistency and reliability by ramping up the raw execution of their talents.

Kenyon Martin seems to understand what I am talking about. He said in his post game interview: “It’s now or never. We don’t have a choice,” Martin said. “It’s either win now or be watching come April, and I don’t think anyone around here wants to be watching. We’ve got too much talent and the guys have too much pride, so we’re going to approach every game like it’s our last. That’s what it’s all about.” I agree K-Mart, but be careful, because I think A.I. may have copyrighted the “play every game like it’s our last” phrase, so I hope you cleared using his phrase beforehand with him or his lawyer.

Every team that has won 46 or more games in the NBA has made the playoffs since the 16 teams playoff system came into effect. This year is now very likely to see a team that wins 48, 49, or 50 games not make the playoffs. Wouldn’t you know it would be the Nuggets who are most likely to be that team? I wonder if even George Karl will still consider the huge disparity between the Eastern and the Western Conferences to be a glorious tradition of basketball if that happens.

And whose personalities will Karl announce to be the most at fault, other than the obvious one, J.R. Smith’s? Will Yakhouba Diawara’s obscure, French personality finally come in for some long overdue public criticism from Karl? What about Karl’s personality, which practically worships other teams while constantly dwelling on and highlighting every real and imagined weakness of the Nuggets? Will Karl ever criticize his own personality in public? And is Karl’s personality ever going to get any of the blame from the Denver front office for this basketball disaster in the making? If the Nuggets become the biggest chump team in the glorious history of basketball, and since personalities are so important to Karl, there are going to have to be some hard questions about personalities answered.

PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 40%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 65%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 54%. However, and I know this is a little confusing, the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, meaning that they will not make the playoffs because only 8 teams qualify in each Conference. It seems right now that the Suns, the Warriors, and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last 2 playoff spots in the West. All three of them are considered likely to make the playoffs, in statistical terms, but not all three are going to make it. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Suns and the Warriors are favored in this race. The Suns’ victory over the Spurs on Sunday March 9 gave them a boost over the Warriors and the Nuggets.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that, most likely, Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to good condition. It’s still unknown whether Atkins can help to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a lower percentage chance than 54% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs.

The Lakers, the Rockets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Hornets are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, and the Mavericks are currently considered near locks to make the playoffs. However, the Rockets are no longer really total locks, due to the loss of Yao Ming for the season. But I think they are still near locks. The Suns are in trouble, due to their terrible trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, but they are in less trouble after their win at home over the Spurs on March 9.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
1. Lakers 58-24
2. Rockets 56-26
3. Spurs 55-27
4. Jazz 54-28
5. Hornets 53-29
6. Mavericks 52-30
7. Suns 51-31
8. Warriors 51-31

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
9. Nuggets 48-34
10. Trailblazers 42-40

The Rockets have lost their best player, and one of the best players in the NBA, Yao Ming, for the rest of the season. Therefore, they will probably drop substantially below their current projection, since the projections do not take injuries into account. The Suns will probably drop a little more also, because they made a bad trade when they gave up “The Matrix,” Shawn Marion. At this time, however, Nuggets 1 does not believe that either the Rockets or the Suns will fail to win at least 50 games, so they will most likely finish ahead of the Nuggets despite their difficulties.

The Warriors are now 2 1/2 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last spot. The schedules of the two teams are roughly equal difficulty from here on out. If the Nuggets make up the 2 1/2 games, so that the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games. The Nuggets and Warriors have each won one game in the head to head series so far.

Now that the Nuggets are 2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are definitely out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain more likely to make the playoffs than the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are about even with the Warriors in the race. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT
Thu, Mar 13 @ Phoenix 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 15 Memphis 10:30 PM
Tue, Mar 18 @ Sacramento 10:00 PM
Wed, Mar 19 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Fri, Mar 21 Houston 10:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ LA Lakers 9:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM
Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM
Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM

NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT
Fri, Mar 14 Toronto 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 16 Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Mar 18 @ Detroit 7:30 PM
Wed, Mar 19 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM
Fri, Mar 21 @ New Jersey 7:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ Toronto 3:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM
Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM
Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM

So overall, Nuggets 1 agrees with the Hollinger system; as of now, we think the Nuggets will fail to make the playoffs. But it will probably be a very close call, and it still could go either way. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 12-6 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 11-7 will probably not be good enough, and 10-8 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 13-5.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is very unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 5%. The odds that Utah will win the Northwest are 95% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them, and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch.

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME
Allen Iverson: suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. X-rays were negative, and he remains probable for the Raptors game on March 14.
Marcus Camby: suffered a right hip contusion at San Antonio on March 10, and he is probable for the Raptors game on March 14.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 29 straight games. He is out until at least the middle of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. Nene has now missed 27 straight games this season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season.

GRIZZLIES PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
All players on the roster were available.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 13, 2008

The Nuggets are under a GREEN ALERT, on account of the following problems.

NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES
1. Nene illness 14 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
Chucky Atkins, 4 points

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured.

No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points.

2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver coaches believe are more important than performance on the court.

J.R. Smith was partially benched: 4 points. Smith was about 8 minutes short of the minimum number of minutes reasonable for him.

3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl’s beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here.

The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points. The rotations were reasonable.

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. All kinds of unwanted problems pop up with this type of offense. For example, at one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Anthony to some extent. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding, but the problem is coming back again right now.

Another problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the effective point guard in the game: Iverson, Carter, or both Iverson and Carter roughly equally. And in any case, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes.

In summary, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays.

The damage caused by this poor offense would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games and responding appropriately reduces the damage. This problem is a killer against the top 7-9 defenses in the NBA, but the damage is reduced when the Nuggets are playing an average team, and sharply reduced when the Nuggets are playing a poor team.

On defense a system is much less important than on offense. How good your defense is is determined much more by effort and skill than by strategy. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The choice varies during each game, and usually depends on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader, as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. At least as important as whether a zone or a man to man defense is in effect is the quality of the actual defending.

Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 4 Points

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It’s not anywhere near as bad as some fans think it is.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 26, which constitutes GREEN ALERT.

GREEN ALERT (20-29): There are minor problems whose total impact is very small. There is very little effect on the team’s ability to win games against teams from any level.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS
All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any.

IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME
The alert status system is still relatively new, but a preliminary estimate of what the point differential will be for each 1 level difference in the alert status has been made, and that estimate is 3-5 points. The Home court advantage has also been estimated to be 3-5 points, and we use 4 points for it. The extra rest advantage is very uncertain, and would differ a little from team to team, but it must be at least as much as the home court advantage. For now, until we can study it more, we will use 4 points for the extra rest advantage.

The Grizzlies had all players on their roster available, and I am not aware of any major player slumps or coaching deficiencies, so the Grizzlies were most likely in GREEN alert along with the Nuggets, so neither team had an advantage with alert status. The Nuggets had both the home court and the extra rest advantages, so they had an 8 point outside factor advantage over the struggling Grizzlies. The Nuggets won by 22, but a 14 point win is approximately what it really was after you adjust for these outside factors.

George Karl has been doing better with the rotations lately, which has prevented the alert status from being worse.

Atkins, in his fourth outing since coming back, had a breakout game, so his alert points were slashed to a very small number. We don’t know for sure yet that Atkins is reliably back to his potential.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality yet. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. If Nene in fact never returns, and Atkins continues to be a lost cause, and Karl goes back to making his usual mistakes, and if Carter starts to reassert himself at point guard, the Nuggets will range between YELLOW and ORANGE alert status for the rest of the season, and that right there may cost the Nuggets a playoff spot.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 11 Grizzlies 12
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Grizzlies 11

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 47
Grizzlies Non-Starters Points: 49

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 21
Grizzlies Non-Starters Rebounds: 24

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 11
Grizzlies Non-Starters Assists: 10

THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME
The whole 4th quarter was essentially garbage time. Two Grizzlies played only in garbage time, Javaris Crittenton and Casey Jacobsen. Not counting them, the Grizzlies Coach, Mark Iavaroni, wisely used 10 players, maximizing the chance that someone would have a shockingly great game, in a long shot attempt to upset the Nuggets. For the Nuggets, Yakhouba Diawara and Steven Hunter were garbage time only players.

It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. Right now he is forced to, because pushing J.R. Smith below 10 minutes is out of the question the way he is playing, and there is a huge mess at PG which requires Karl to play 2 official point guards for much more than 10 minutes each. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs and so Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets’ only hope at the position in the playoffs, and in the stretch run to make the playoffs for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is inconsistent so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, so Carter has to play a lot of minutes also.

Even though the game was a rout, the non-starters were about even in all three categories. The Grizzlies’ non-starters were very slightly ahead of the Nuggets’ non-starters in points 49-47 and in rebounding 24-21, while the Nuggets’ non-starters were very slightly ahead in assisting, 11-10.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-GRIZZLIES PLAYER RATINGS
NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS

Kenyon Martin: Game 40.0 Season 22.4
Marcus Camby: Game 34.8 Season 32.6
Carmelo Anthony: Game 30.8 Season 38.9
Linas Kleiza: Game 28.6 Season 18.2
Chucky Atkins: Game 26.8 Season 9.2
Anthony Carter: Game 12.5 Season 20.2
Eduardo Najera: Game 12.1 Season 13.3
Allen Iverson: Game 11.9 Season 41.0
J.R. Smith: Game 8.8 Season 16.3
Yakhouba Diawara: Game 4.1 Season 5.2
Steven Hunter: Game 3.1 Season 4.1

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness

Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

GRIZZLIES PLAYER RATINGS
Juan Carlos Navarro: Game 25.5 Season 16.2
Hakim Warrick: Game 22.9 Season 15.7
Mike Miller: Game 22.1 Season 15.1
Javaris Crittenton: Game 15.5 Season 7.0
Brian Cardinal: Game 15.1 Season 7.3
Kyle Lowry: Game 14.8 Season 17.1
Kwame Brown: Game 14.0 Season 11.7
Rudy Gay: Game 13.4 Season 30.8
Jason Collins: Game 2.9 Season 4.1
Darko Milicic: Game 2.2 Season 15.7
Mike Conley: Game 0.6 Season 16.4
Casey Jacobsen: Game -1.3 Season 3.5

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the strength and defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Nene, Najera, and Diawara.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
Chucky Atkins had a major breakout game, which was the best news of the night for the Nuggets. Now fans can cautiously hope that he will be able to help out the Nuggets in the stretch run for the playoffs.

Kenyon Martin was not far from twice as productive as usual; he was the top performer on the court and the biggest step-up player for Denver. Martin scored 23 points in 28 minutes on 9/11 shooting and he added 7 rebounds and 3 assists. The only other Nugget above normal was Kleiza, who was half again more productive than usual.

Camby and Najera made their averages, as did Diawara and Hunter at their very limited minutes levels.

Anthony was 80% of normal against a poor team, which is a major danger sign that the Nuggets will not be able to beat the elite teams this year. The Nuggets’ on the fly offense has lately drifted away from getting the ball enough to Anthony, as players such as Kleiza, Carter, and Najera take shots some of which would go to Anthony in a more strategic and tactical offense. This happened in December as well and it led to a full scale Carmelo Anthony slump, which cost the Nuggets at least a couple of games. Melo is a rhythm type player, and if he doesn’t get the ball anywhere near as much as usual, he can then miss shots that he would have hit when he does get the ball.

Both J.R. Smith and Carter were only about 60% as productive as usual.

But the real shocker was that Iverson was only about 30% as productive as usual, leaving him slightly less productive than Carter and Najera. Yikes! You won’t see Iverson finishing behind most of his teammates, including Carter and Najera, very often. A.I. missed 10/12 shots and, were it not for 8 assists, he would not have been far from worthless.

The Grizzlies had 3 players who were half again more productive than usual: SG Navarro, PF Warrick, and SG Miller. Off the bench and in less than 1 1/2 quarters of action, PG Crittenton and PF Cardinal were twice as productive as usual.

PF Brown made his normal and a little more and PG Lowry was close to making his normal.

Amazingly, the Grizzlies had 3 starters who were almost totally shut down by the Nuggets and the atmosphere at the Pepsi Center. Both C Milicic and PG Conley came up almost empty. Milicic didn’t play in the second half due to a sore right foot. The biggest disaster of all for the Grizzlies was their best player, SF Rudy Gay. He was almost as short as Iverson was; he made only 40% of his normal production.

In very limited minutes, C Collins was disappointing and SF Jacobsen was extremely disappointing.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-GRIZZLIES REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Kenyon Martin, Den 1.429
2. Chucky Atkins, Den 1.276
3. Marcus Camby, Den 1.243
4. Juan Carlos Navarro, Mem 1.159
5. Linas Kleiza, Den 1.100
6. Javaris Crittenton, Mem 1.033
7. Carmelo Anthony, Den 1.027
8. Kwame Brown, Mem 0.933
9. Brian Cardinal, Mem 0.888
10. Rudy Gay, Mem 0.744
11. Hakim Warrick, Mem 0.739
12. Mike Miller, Mem 0.737
13. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.672
14. Kyle Lowry, Mem 0.643
15. J.R. Smith, Den 0.629
16. Anthony Carter, Den 0.543
17. Yakhouba Diawara, Den 0.456…Diawara played only 9 minutes.
18. Steven Hunter, Den 0.443…Hunter played only 7 minutes.
19. Allen Iverson, Den 0.384
20. Darko Milicic, Mem 0.244…Milicic played only 9 minutes.
21. Jason Collins, Mem 0.145
22. Mike Conley, Mem 0.022
24. Casey Jacobsen, Mem -0.108

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The Nuggets knew they could turn off their defensive intensity and still win this game, so there were a lot of high performers. Kenyon Martin for the Nuggets was the best player on the court, and the only superstar. Chucky Atkins and Marcus Camby were both star-plus for the Nuggets. Plain old stars were Juan Carlos Navarro of the Grizzlies and Linas Kleiza of the Nuggets. Of the 5 players who were stars or better, the Nuggets had 4 and the Grizzlies only 1.

Brown and Crittenton were outstanding for the Grizzlies. Anthony was outstanding for the Nuggets.

The Grizzlies had 1 player who was very good, Cardinal, and 3 players who were good, Gay, Warrick, and Miller. But good is not good enough to win games in the NBA; you have to be better than good.

Najera and J.R. Smith for the Nuggets were mediocre, as was Lowry for the Grizzlies.

Carter was poor for the Nuggets. In limited minutes, Diawara and Hunter were very poor.

Iverson was extremely poor for the Nuggets, which is something you will rarely see.

At the bottom of the barrel, the Grizzlies had 4 players who were total disasters, while the Nuggets had none. Milicic in limited minutes was a disaster; he just missed the near disaster level.

Conley, Collins, and Jacobsen were total disasters. Conley started at PG and played 27 minutes. C Collins played 20 minutes off the bench, and SF Jacobsen played 12 minutes off the bench.

Among the 8 players who were poor or worse, each team had 4, but the 4 Grizzlies were even worse than the 4 Nuggets.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Allen Iverson: +26
Carmelo Anthony: +20
Marcus Camby: +18
Kenyon Martin: +15
Eduardo Najera: +15
Linas Kleiza: +14
J.R. Smith: +7
Anthony Carter: +7
Chucky Atkins: +4

OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS
This game’s plus-minus proves that sometimes a lot of good luck, or a lot of bad luck, can distort the measure. Iverson did relatively little in this game, mostly 8 assists, and yet he ended up with the highest plus-minus. So his teammates rescued Iverson from a much lower number. 3 Nuggets guards, Smith, Carter, and Atkins, were at the low end of the plus-minus, but everyone finished in the positive.

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 13, Team 0, Anthony 2, Atkins 1, Camby 0, Carter 3, Diawara 0, Hunter 2, Iverson 1, Kleiza 1, Martin 1, Najera 0, Smith 2

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 21, Anthony 4, Atkins 1, Camby 1, Carter 3, Diawara 1, Hunter 2, (Green 1), Iverson 1, Kleiza 3, Martin 2, Najera 0, Smith 2

Allen Iverson played 31 minutes and was 2/12, 0/2 on 3’s, and 4/6 from the line for 8 points, and he made 8 assists.

Steven Hunter played 7 minutes and was 2/2 from the line for 2 points, and he made 2 rebounds.

Yakhouba Diawara played 9 minutes and was 1/4 and 2/2 from the line for 4 points, and he made 1 rebound.

Anthony Carter played 23 minutes and was 3/7, 1/2 on 3’s, and 1/2 from the line for 8 points, and he made 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal.

J.R. Smith played 14 minutes and was 2/7 and 2/4 on 3’s for 6 points, and he made 2 assists, 1 block, and 1 rebound.

Eduardo Najera played 18 minutes and was 3/6 and 1/2 on 3’s for 7 points, and he made 4 rebounds.

Carmelo Anthony played 30 minutes and was 7/14 for 14 points, and he made 13 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal.

Linas Kleiza played 26 minutes and was 7/13, 1/4 on 3’s, and 4/5 from the line for 19 points, and he made 6 rebounds and 1 assist.

Marcus Camby played 28 minutes and was 3/4, 1/1 on 3’s, and 1/2 from the line for 8 points, and he made 10 rebounds, 6 blocks, 3 assists, and 2 steals.

Chucky Atkins played 21 minutes and was 3/4, 2/3 on 3’s, and 1/2 from the line for 9 points, and he made 7 assists and 6 rebounds.

Kenyon Martin played 28 minutes and was 9/11 and 5/9 from the line for 23 points, and he made 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Friday, March 14 in Denver to play the Raptors at 7 pm mountain time. Neither the Nuggets nor the Raptors will be playing on back to back nights.

The San Antonio Spurs' Almost Flawless Execution Beats the Denver Nuggets 107-103, but J.R. Smith Kept the Nuggets Close

2008-03-11T21:29:00.000-07:00

The Nuggets are good enough in terms of talent to beat the San Antonio Spurs and they did so three nights earlier in Denver. But in Texas, the Spurs almost always win and this game was no exception. Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner dominated Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby, who was playing with a bruised hip, and the Spurs defeated the Nuggets 107-103, despite heroics from Allen Iverson and especially from J.R. Smith. The loss left the Nuggets 2 1/2 games behind the Golden State Warriors for the 8th and final playoff spot in the tough Western Conference.

Martin did what he could against Duncan, but Nene is the type of player who has more success against him than the less bulky Martin. Technically, if the Nuggets fail to make the playoffs, it won’t really be the full team that missed the playoffs because Nene, a multi-million dollar big man who is big enough to effect the course of a game near the hoop, has been out for essentially the entire season. It is my contention that the Nuggets should make the playoffs regardless of this, but there is little doubt that the Nuggets would have won this game had Nene played in it.

J.R. Smith was unbelievable in this game; he was more than twice as productive as usual. Without Smith, the Nuggets would not have been able to hang close with the Spurs as they did. Smith made all the highlight reels. On one play, he squeezed past Duncan along the baseline below the hoop, turned all the way around, and jumped so high over Duncan to make the shot on the other side that Duncan looked useless on the play. And Bruce Bowen started guarding J.R. Smith at one point. One of the ultimate honors you can get in pro basketball, as an offensive player, is if Spurs Coach Greg Popovich orders defensive specialist Bruce Bowen to guard you, because you have to be a major threat to the Spurs for that to happen.

Many Nuggets fans who saw the game were convinced that the Nuggets were at least slightly cheated by the refs. Specifically, Nuggets fans could not believe how it was possible that the Nuggets had 22 fouls called against them while the Spurs had only 20. It wasn’t just the fans. The Spurs were 22/29 on free throws, while the Nuggets, who in most games get more free throws than their opponent, were 17/23. Carmelo Anthony never even got to the line until 4 ½ minutes left in the game, despite clearly being fouled numerous times earlier. Melo was particularly angry after he was kneed by Duncan and pushed back behind the mid-court line, which resulted in an over and back turnover. Melo’s reaction was not very mellow, and he got a very quick technical from a referee. Camby also got a technical in this game, whereas the Spurs, of course, did not get any technicals.

There were definitely some instances when the Spurs fouled a Nuggets player but there was no call, and there were definitely some instances when the Nuggets were called for a foul that was questionable at best. For example, in the 3rd quarter, Martin got almost all ball on Parker going to the hoop, and it should have been a jump ball, but it was a foul on Martin. J.R. Smith was clearly fouled while going straight through the paint with just under 3 minutes to go and that wasn’t called. With 1:45 left, Parker pushed Iverson to the floor and there was no call. At about that time also, Parker was camped out in the lane for more than 4 seconds and there was no 3-second violation call. These are some of the instances, but there were other instances of calls and non-calls going in favor of the Spurs.

I guess the referees were not in the mood to favorably consider the plight of what looks to end up as one of the best teams in the history of sports that failed to make the playoffs. Maybe they figure there must be something really rotten at the core about such a team, which would be ironic since George Karl is one of the few coaches in basketball who thinks that the personalities and characters of players are large factors in determining the fate of a team. Maybe George Karl should have been a referee instead of a coach, since he seems to think more like a referee might think than like other coaches think.

The Nuggets fought tooth and nail and led for much of the game. After falling 7 behind midway through the 2nd quarter, they battled back later in the period, mostly with dunks and layups, but also with two long threes by Iverson just before the half time horn. The Nuggets led the Spurs at the half 58-55.

In the 3rd quarter, the Nuggets led by as many as seven, but the Spurs went on a 16-5 run to close the quarter and take an 84-80 lead. They started executing flawlessly, while the Nuggets could not keep up despite the best efforts of Iverson and Smith. The Spurs took the lead with 1:37 left in the 3rd with a long 3 by PF Matt Bonner.

The Spurs scored on their last 6 possessions to win the game. These were mostly easy shots earned by the Spurs following their usual tactics. Meanwhile, the Nuggets’ late in the game shots were mostly difficult shots that were well defended. The Spurs’ execution down the stretch was outstanding, while the Nuggets’ execution varied from occasional brilliance to total ineptness.

I have been discussing the point guard mess and the need for what I call an offensive identity over the last several game reports. You need to have an offensive identity so that you can be consistent on offense, so that you give yourself the best chance to win tough games. You need to have either one dominant, playmaking PG and someone who backs him up, or you need to have two playmakers who more or less share the job. If your playmakers are not established, and they change from game to game, and there are games where the playmaking is spread through most of the team, you will most of the time end up with fewer overall assists than you need, and you will score less than you should because players who should be worried mostly about scoring will be worried too much about assisting.

Sure enough, this was another game in which the Nuggets’ point guard situation was still a hopeless mess, and their offensive identity was nothing more than wishful thinking that they have one.

Let’s look at the Spurs to see how an offense is supposed to work. SG Manu Ginobili is such a quick and fluid a mover on the court, and he is such an intelligent player, that he gets more assists than does PG Tony Parker. So the Spurs do not have the perfect set-up, which is where your starting PG gets more assists than anyone else on the team. But they have the next best set-up, and the difference between the two is not that serious a thing.

The Spurs do follow the most important thing, which is what I call the minimum requirements to have an offensive identity. I use to call them guidelines, but from now on I am calling them requirements, because the more I think about this, the more I realize that this is critical as to whether an NBA team can win games it is supposed to win or not. There are two rules. The first rule is that the team must average, at an absolute minimum, the NBA average number of assists per game, adjusted for pace. I have calculated that the Nuggets, the fastest pace team in the League, should be averaging at least 25 assists per game. They are averaging 1 ½ fewer assists per game than that, so they have failed the first requirement.

But the Nuggets are close to meeting the first requirement, so they could have a decent offense if they met the second requirement. But they don’t. The Nuggets are extremely inconsistent with their assists, so they violate the second requirement too often. The second requirement is that, in every game, your top two assisting guards should make at least half and no more than 2/3 of all the assists. If the assists are more spread out than this, too many players are looking for assists rather than getting in position and executing pick and rolls and so forth for scores.

Consider the Nuggets’ center, Marcus Camby, as an example. He is averaging about 3 assists per game, which makes Camby look generous, but it is terrible for the Nuggets. Camby is averaging only 9 points per game, down 2 from last year and down almost 4 from 2005-06. Fans have been known to complain about Camby acting like a point guard, but the problem is deeper than just Camby. All Nuggets players are subject to acting too much like a point guard from time to time, because of the failure of the team to have 2 established playmakers who make the plays almost every game.

Now if you look at the seasonal averages, you would never know there is a problem, because Iverson and Carter clearly are the dominant playmakers judged by that. The problem does not occur in every game. If it did, the Nuggets would be heading for a 20-62 record or so. There are games where Carter and Iverson get 2/3 of all the assists. The problem appears mostly in games against the better teams. The better the team that the Nuggets are playing and especially the better the defense that the Nuggets are playing, the more likely the playmaking will break down and the Nuggets offense will become far less productive than usual. If Iverson decides he has to ramp up his scoring to try to beat a great team like the Spurs, but at the same time he refuses to leave the playmaking mostly to Carter, then Carter becomes of little value, and the Nuggets can win only if Iverson is able to play both guard positions well simultaneously most of the time he is out there. Since Iverson is not a machine so far as we know, he is not going to be able to do that near-impossible task on a regular basis, especially since we are talking about playing the better defenses..

So this game was a perfect example of what I have been talking about. The Nuggets finished with only 18 assists, grossly short of the needed 25. There were three Nuggets who made 4 assists each, Iverson, Anthony, and Camby. Not only did the Nuggets fail the second requirement, because the top two assisters made only 8 assists instead of 9-12, but the starting point guard, Carter, made a grand total of 1 assist in almost 20 minutes, and was not one of the top two assisters. Anthony and Camby were both wasted to some extent by making these assists instead of being able to execute plays where they score the ball.

So we have identified a critical reason why the Nuggets are having so much trouble making the playoffs this year, and why they have had so much trouble under Karl winning playoff games.

There is only one known solution to this, but for Karl it would be sacrilege. Karl would have to defy one of the “glorious traditions of basketball,” which is that Iverson plays the 2-guard position and is “not a point guard”. Atkins would come off the bench in relief of Iverson, and so could Carter. When either one of them came in, Iverson could move over to the 2-guard.

The important thing would be to limit the amount of time that Iverson and either Carter or Atkins are on the court at the same time. The Nuggets are losing out when Iverson and either Carter or Atkins are playing at the same time, it’s that simple. But Karl is never going to have enough courage to admit that Iverson should be declared to be the PG because, for one thing, he would have to defy one of his best friends, Larry Brown, to do that.

Larry Brown has always thought that a PG should never be a major scorer, and he was desperate for heavy guard scoring in Philadelphia, so he insisted that AI play SG. In Brown's mind, it was the only possible solution to meeting the scoring objective without violating the PG rule. One big reason why the Pistons under Brown won it all in 2003-04 was that the Billups-Hamilton back court was perfect for Brown's limitations and rules. Billups was a PG who was not at all obsessed with scoring, and Hamilton was an excellent SG who had little interest in encroaching on the PG role. So those two guards made it possible for Brown's views to work very well. Brown never had a 2-guard the caliber of Hamilton in Philadelphia, which is a partial but by no means a complete excuse for Brown's failure to make any adjustments to Iverson’s role as the years went by after the 76'ers loss to the Lakers in the finals. Karl would never do anything to go against his idol Brown. That would be sacrilege, so that is why the Nuggets are stuck with this problem to this day. If Karl officially realized that AI has been running the point, there would be all kinds of stories in the media about how Karl was trying to improve on what Brown did, and Karl could not tolerate or deal with that.

It should be noted, in all fairness, that Brown and Karl are not the only two coaches in the world who worry about a PG being a huge scorer. But as Byron Scott is showing with his Hornets, it is definitely possible to have a successful offense where your PG is a huge scorer.

If we had a coach who was not tied at the hip to Larry Brown, we would probably have A.I. as the starting PG by now. At the start of the 2007-08 season, basketball's best minds penciled in the Nuggets' starting five as Iverson/Smith/Anthony/Martin/Camby. Early this season, many of the sports sites were showing Iverson as the starting PG for the Nuggets, because they thought that was the only reasonable possibility once Atkins was not available. But the basketball experts at ESPN, CBS Sportsline, and so forth did not understand that Karl can never do anything that would in any way challenge his idol Brown.

With every game the door starts to close a little more on the Nugget’s playoff hopes. Now the Nuggets need to win the next 3 straight games, which are all home games, because they have been struggling on the road this year, unlike last year, and because they have fallen 2 ½ games behind the last playoff spot with only 19 games left. The Nuggets are more talented than the Mavericks, the Warriors, the Hornets, and the Rockets, but they are inferior in basketball knowledge, and they employ fewer strategies and tactics than any of those teams. It’s as if the Nuggets are doing a scientific experiment to see if athletic skills and talent are enough to offset knowledge, strategies, and tactics. It’s looking more and more like the answer is no, they are not enough.

The Nuggets only hope now may be to want to win so badly that they employ an even greater percentage of their abilities than they would otherwise. To tap most of your raw abilities you need to get really pumped up. Maybe, as the season draws to a close, the Nuggets will rebel against going down in history as one of the all-time chump teams. Maybe they will join J.R. Smith in the quest for the ring.

PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 40%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 60%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 51%. However, and I know this is a little confusing, the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, meaning that they will not make the playoffs because only 8 teams qualify in each Conference. It seems right now that the Suns, the Warriors, and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last 2 playoff spots in the West. All three of them are considered likely to make the playoffs, in statistical terms, but not all three are going to make it. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Suns and the Warriors are favored in this race. The Suns’ victory over the Spurs on Sunday March 9 gave them a boost over the Warriors and the Nuggets.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that, most likely, Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to good condition. It’s still unknown whether Atkins can help to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a lower percentage chance than 53% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs.

The Lakers, the Rockets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Hornets are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, and the Mavericks are currently considered near locks to make the playoffs. However, the Rockets are no longer really total locks, due to the loss of Yao Ming for the season. But I think they are still near locks. The Suns are in trouble, due to their terrible trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, but they are in less trouble after their win at home over the Spurs on March 9.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
Lakers 58-24
Rockets 56-26
Spurs 55-27
Jazz 54-28
Hornets 53-29
Mavericks 52-30
Suns 51-31
Warriors 51-31

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
Nuggets 48-34
Trailblazers 42-40

The Rockets have lost their best player, and one of the best players in the NBA, Yao Ming, for the rest of the season. Therefore, they will probably drop substantially below their current projection, since the projections do not take injuries into account. The Suns will probably drop a little more also, because they made a bad trade when they gave up “The Matrix,” Shawn Marion. At this time, however, Nuggets 1 does not believe that either the Rockets or the Suns will fail to win at least 50 games, so they will most likely finish ahead of the Nuggets despite their difficulties.

The Warriors are now 3 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last spot. The schedules of the two teams are roughly equal difficulty from here on out. If the Nuggets make up the three games, so that the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games.

Now that the Nuggets are 2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are definitely out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain more likely to make the playoffs than the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are about even with the Warriors in the race. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT
Wed, Mar 12 Toronto 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 13 @ Phoenix 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 15 Memphis 10:30 PM
Tue, Mar 18 @ Sacramento 10:00 PM
Wed, Mar 19 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Fri, Mar 21 Houston 10:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ LA Lakers 9:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM
Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM
Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM

NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT
Wed, Mar 12 Memphis 9:00 PM
Fri, Mar 14 Toronto 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 16 Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Mar 18 @ Detroit 7:30 PM
Wed, Mar 19 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM
Fri, Mar 21 @ New Jersey 7:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ Toronto 3:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM
Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM
Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM

So overall, Nuggets 1 agrees with the Hollinger system; as of now, we think the Nuggets will fail to make the playoffs. But it will probably be a very close call, and it still could go either way. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 13-6 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 12-7 will probably not be good enough, and 11-8 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 14-5.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is very unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 4%. The odds that Utah will win the Northwest are 96% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them, and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch.

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME
Allen Iverson: suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. X-rays were negative, and he remains probable for the Grizzlies game on March 12.
Marcus Camby: suffered a right hip contusion at San Antonio on March 10, and he is probable for the Grizzlies game on March 12.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 29 straight games. He is out until at least the middle of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. Nene has now missed 27 straight games this season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season.

SPURS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
All players on the roster were available.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 11, 2008

The Nuggets are under a YELLOW ALERT, on account of the following problems.

NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES
1. Nene illness 14 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
Chucky Atkins, 14 points

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured.

No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points.

2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver coaches believe are more important than performance on the court.

J.R. Smith was partially benched: 0 points. Smith was not partially benched.

3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl’s beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here.

The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points. The rotations were reasonable.

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, reduces the damage. At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Anthony to some extent. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding.

However, another problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the effective point guard in the game: Iverson, Carter, or both Iverson and Carter roughly equally. And in any case, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes.

In any event, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays.

On defense a system is much less important than on offense. How good your defense is is determined much more by effort and skill than by strategy. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The choice varies during each game, and usually depends on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader, as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. At least as important as whether a zone or a man to man defense is in effect is the quality of the actual defending.

Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 14 Points

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It’s not anywhere near as bad as some fans think it is.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 42, which constitutes YELLOW ALERT.

YELLOW ALERT (40-54): Minor damage is occurring to the season. The entire season is under medium threat. Beating quality teams is more difficult and will be relatively unusual. About 1/2 of all would be wins against good teams will now be losses. Beating mid-level teams is a little more difficult. About 1/4 of games that would be wins against mid-level teams will now be losses. Beating low level teams is still relatively easy. A good team has become in between a good team and a mid-level team when it is under this alert.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS
All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any.

IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME
The alert status system is still relatively new, but a preliminary estimate of what the point differential will be for each 1 level difference in the alert status has been made, and that estimate is 3-5 points. The Home court advantage has also been estimated to be 3-5 points, and we use 4 points for it. The extra rest advantage is very uncertain, and would differ a little from team to team, but it must be at least as much as the home court advantage. For now, until we can study it more, we will use 4 points for the extra rest advantage.

In this game, the Nuggets had the extra rest advantage, and the Spurs had the home court advantage, and those two offset each other.

The Spurs had no injuries, and were in either GREY or GREEN alert. So they had a 1-2 level advantage over the Nuggets, which translates roughly into a 6-10 point advantage. So the Spurs had a total net advantage of 6-10 points from outside factors. Since the Nuggets lost by only 4 points, they definitely played well enough to beat the Spurs, and would most likely have won the game were it not for the factors detailed in the alert status report feature.

George Karl has been doing better with the rotations lately, which has prevented the alert status from being even worse.

Atkins, in his third outing since coming back, did poorly again, so his alert points were increased.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality yet. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. If Nene in fact never returns, and Atkins continues to be a lost cause, and Karl goes back to making his usual mistakes, and if Carter starts to reassert himself at point guard, the Nuggets will range between YELLOW and ORANGE alert status for the rest of the season, and that right there may cost the Nuggets a playoff spot.

And don’t expect George Karl to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Spurs 10
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Spurs 8

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 28
Spurs Non-Starters Points: 31

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 13
Spurs Non-Starters Rebounds: 12

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 5
Spurs Non-Starters Assists: 4

THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME
It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. Right now he is forced to, because pushing J.R. Smith below 10 minutes is out of the question the way he is playing, and there is a huge mess at PG which requires Karl to play 2 official point guards for much more than 10 minutes each. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs and so Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets’ only hope at the position in the playoffs, and in the stretch run to make the playoffs, for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is poor so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, and so Carter has to play a lot of minutes also.

J.R. Smith scored 22 points, allowing the Nuggets to hang tight with the Spurs non-starters in scoring, 28-31. In a similar way, Linas Kleiza was a good rebounder, which allowed the Nuggets’ non-starters to out rebound the Spurs’ non-starters 13-12. It’s unusual for the Nuggets’ non-starters to out assist the non-starters of the other team, but in this game they did, 5-4.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-SPURS PLAYER RATINGS
NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Allen Iverson: Game 41.5 Season 41.4
J.R. Smith: Game 34.5 Season 16.4
Carmelo Anthony: Game 32.1 Season 39.1
Kenyon Martin: Game 22.4 Season 22.1
Marcus Camby: Game 18.5 Season 32.3
Anthony Carter: Game 14.6 Season 20.3
Eduardo Najera: Game 9.7 Season 13.3
Linas Kleiza: Game 8.0 Season 18.1
Chucky Atkins: Game 1.6 Season 5.7

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness

Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

SPURS PLAYER RATINGS
Tim Duncan: Game 52.9 Season 38.9
Manu Ginobili: Game 36.1 Season 34.2
Tony Parker: Game 22.8 Season 29.5
Bruce Bowen: Game 17.7 Season 11.2
Kurt Thomas: Game 16.9 Season 19.2
Matt Bonner: Game 14.5 Season 10.1
Michael Finley: Game 12.4 Season 15.4
Ime Udoka: Game 10.6 Season 10.3
Fabricio Oberto: Game 8.6 Season 13.2
Damon Stoudamire: Game 5.1 Season 11.9

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Najera, and Diawara.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
J.R. Smith was more than twice as productive as his average, but where he led none of the other Nuggets followed. No other Nugget was above average at all, let alone much above average. In fact, there were only two Nuggets who made their averages against the tough Spurs defense, Iverson and Martin, who have been there, done that.

Anthony was 1/5 off his average, mainly because he didn’t get the ball much in the last third of this game. Carter was 1/4 off his average, mainly because he is getting confused about what he should be doing out there in the wake of Iverson’s gradual taking over of running the point. Najera was about 30% off his average, mainly because he didn’t get the rebounds he gets against many other teams, and because he, like Anthony, did not get the ball as much on offense as usual.

Camby is in a major slump, since the first of March, and he was only 60% as productive as usual. Kleiza is also in a slump, for about 2 1/2 weeks long now, and he was less than half as productive as usual.

For the Spurs, PF Tim Duncan was huge; he was about 1/3 more productive than usual, which is hard to do when you do as much as Duncan does on a regular basis. Joining him on the major plus side were SF Bowen and PF Bonner.

SG Ginobili made his average as did SF Udoka, though at less than 1/3 of Ginobili’s high level.

C Thomas and SG Finley were both just a very little short of their averages.

C Oberto was about 1/3 off his average, but he only played 8 minutes, compared to his average playing time of 20 minutes, so in real terms he played extremely well. Similarly, PG Stoudamire was a little more than 1/2 off his average productivity, but he only played 6 minutes compared to his average playing time of 20 minutes, so he actually played very well in real terms.

So there was really only 1 Spur who was substantially below his average, and even he was not way below. It was PG Parker, but he was not poor enough in this game to truly endanger the Spurs winning it, and he was no where near as poor as we was in the 3 days earlier Spurs-Nuggets game in Denver.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-SPURS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Tim Duncan, SA 1.356
2. J.R. Smith, Den 1.190
3. Manu Ginobili, SA 1.128
4. Fabricio Oberto, SA 1.075…Oberto played only 8 minutes.
5. Matt Bonner, SA 0.967
6. Allen Iverson, Den 0.965
7. Damon Stoudamire, SA 0.850…Stoudamire played only 6 minutes.
8. Carmelo Anthony, Den 0.803
9. Anthony Carter, Den 0.768
10. Ime Udoka, SA 0.757
11. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.723
12. Kurt Thomas, SA 0.704
13. Michael Finley, SA 0.653
14. Marcus Camby, Den 0.638
15. Tony Parker, SA 0.585
16. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.533
17. Bruce Bowen, SA 0.432
18. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.422
19. Chucky Atkins, Den 0.133

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The best player on the court was Tim Duncan of the Spurs, and he was a star-plus. There were 3 stars: J.R. Smith for the Nuggets, and Manu Ginobili and Fabricio Oberto for the Nuggets. But Oberto played for only 8 minutes. Not counting Oberto, the Spurs had 1 star-plus and one star, while the Nuggets had just one star.

Iverson for the Nuggets and Bonner for the Spurs were outstanding.

Anthony for the Nuggets and Stoudamire in limited minutes for the Spurs were very good. Udoka and Thomas for the Spurs and Carter and Martin for the Nuggets were plain good.

Camby for the Nuggets and Finley for the Spurs were only mediocre, and when Camby is only mediocre the Nuggets are in deep trouble

Kleiza for the Nuggets and Parker for the Spurs were poor.

Bowen for the Spurs and Najera for the Nuggets were very poor, not counting their made you miss type shot defending.

Atkins for the Nuggets was a total disaster in his third game back from his long injury out. He was also a disaster in his first game back, but played much better in his second game, which was the Jazz game.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Linas Kleiza: +10
Chucky Atkins: +9
Eduardo Najera: +0
J.R. Smith: -2
Anthony Carter: -2
Carmelo Anthony: -7
Marcus Camby: -8
Kenyon Martin: -10
Allen Iverson: -10

OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS
If anyone thinks that the Nugget’s non-starters are useless, consider these results. The 4 non-starters finished ahead of the 5 starters, except that Carter was tied with Smith.

Although there is no performance measure for made you miss type defending yet, the plus-minus will often give you some clues as to who defended very well. This is a good example of that. Kleiza was extremely quiet offensively, but he had a strong plus-minus, which suggests but does not prove that he was a very good defender in this game. In the case of Najera, who is usually a good defender in games, his plus-minus is usually better than his real player rating would suggest.

Smith was huge in this game, but even he couldn’t quite get into positive territory against the grind them out and shut them down Spurs.

All of the Nuggets’ starters except for Carter were beaten decisively by the Spurs.

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 16, Team 1, Anthony 2, Atkins 0, Camby 2, Carter 2, Iverson 2, Kleiza 0, Martin 1, Najera 2, Smith 4

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 22, Anthony 3, Atkins 1, Camby 2, Carter 1, Iverson 2, Kleiza 1, Martin 5, Najera 3, Smith 4

Chucky Atkins played 12 minutes and was 0/1 and 0/1 on 3’s for 0 points, and he made 1 assist and 1 steal.

Eduardo Najera played 23 minutes and was 1/3, 0/2 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 4 points, and he made 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal.

Linas Kleiza played 15 minutes and was 1/4 for 2 points, and he made 5 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal.

Marcus Camby played 29 minutes and was 1/5 and 1/2 from the line for 3 points, and he made 14 rebounds and 4 assists.

Kenyon Martin played 31 minutes and was 7/15 and 2/5 from the line for 16 points, and he made 5 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block.

Anthony Carter played 19 minutes and was 4/7 and 2/2 on 3’s for 10 points, and he made 2 rebounds and 1 assist.

Carmelo Anthony played most of the game, 40 minutes, and was 8/15, 0/1 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 18 points, and he made 7 rebounds and 4 assists.

Allen Iverson played most of the game, 43 minutes, and was 9/22, 3/6 on 3’s, and 7/7 from the line for 28 points, and he made 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block.

J.R. Smith played 29 minutes and was 9/13, 1/4 on 3’s, and 3/5 from the line for 22 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Wednesday, March 12 in Denver to play the Grizzlies at 7 pm mountain time. The Grizzlies will be playing on back to back nights, but the Nuggets will not be. So the Nuggets will have both the home court and the extra rest advantages.

The Jazz Rout the Nuggets 132-105, as Kenyon Martin is Knocked Out of the Game and the Jazz Clean up on the Boards

2008-03-09T22:25:00.000-07:00

The Jazz won their 18th straight home game by routing the Nuggets in Utah, 132-105. Although the Nuggets never led in this game, they did hang with the Jazz for the first 8 minutes or so; it was 18 each following a long two Camby jumper with 4:39 left in the 1st. But it was all downhill from there. Seriously downhill, as in it was like coming down a steep mountain road with poor breaks. The Jazz led 34-26 after the 1st, 77-54 at the half, and 108-75 at the end of the 3rd. So the 2nd quarter was the real killer, as the Jazz outscored the Nuggets 43-28 in that one.

The Jazz excel in inside scoring, and they scored 60 points in the paint in this game. Kenyon Martin had to come out of the game after playing 9 minutes due to a mild concussion. After Martin was gone, and with no Nene to boot, it was a foregone conclusion that the Jazz were going to go to town in the paint, and they did exactly that.

In the first two months of this season, the Jazz, the Mavericks, and the Nuggets were the only three Western powers who were not great in 3-point shooting. But since the Jazz acquired Kyle Korver from the 76’ers, they have left the Nuggets in the dust in that area, and now the Nuggets and the Mavericks are the only two Western playoff and potential playoff teams which are not a great 3-point shooting team. The Nuggets and the Mavericks are roughly equal as they trail the field. The Nuggets make half a three more per game, but the Mavericks are a percentage point more accurate.

As usual, there was no sense of urgency on the part of Coach George Karl during this critical game, and no emergency time outs to speak of. Today’s George Karl has an incredibly frustrating ability to accept defeat without getting the slightest bit upset about it, and without kicking into a higher gear and being more active in terms of shouting, instructing, timeouts, half time adjustments, rotation changes, and so forth. It seems that Karl thinks that every loss is deserved, because every loss is due to inferior thinking by players and/or inferior toughness. He is always quick with praise for how wonderful the other team is. I sometimes think that Karl thinks that every win and every loss is preordained, so why should he get worked up trying to change outcomes that have already been decided by some higher power somewhere.

5 minutes into the game, Mehmet Okur gave Kenyon Martin a mild concussion with a sharp and cheap elbow to the face as he headed for the hoop. Martin played for 4 more minutes and, after playing very well, he was taken out of the game after 9 minutes. Meanwhile, Okur went on to complete one of his best games of the year. According to the Real Player Ratings, he was a superstar and was the best player on the court. The starting center for the Jazz, Okur was 9/11 from the field, an incredible 6/7 from beyond the arc, and 3/4 from the line for 27 points, and he added 11 rebounds, 3 steals, and 1 assist. Although Martin himself has been known to get someone out of a game while powering his way to get to the basket, at least the Nuggets have not made it a team policy to foul intentionally, to smash faces and even on occasion to throw bodies to the floor, and to ask questions later.

There is something very cheap about how the Jazz win games if you ask me. And it’s interesting that when the Jazz are on better behavior on the road, they lose more games than they win. Coaches should instruct their teams in advance of playing in Utah that they had better be ready to fight back if the Jazz step too far over the line. Let’s just summarize it this way: don’t be worried about getting a technical foul or two whenever you play in Salt Lake City. If you don’t get any technicals, you are not putting yourself in a position to win in Utah.

The Nuggets fast break style yielded an 18-5 advantage over the Jazz in fast break scoring, but as you can tell by those relatively low numbers, a fast break strategy can’t take you very far toward winning a game, and it certainly can never be the foundation to your plans for how you are going to win games. The Nuggets’ coaches have been overestimating what fast breaks can do for them since they were hired to coach the team, not to mention that they have been overestimating the supposed tremendous fast break skills of Nuggets players. But fast breaking is more like dribbling than it is like jump shooting. Most players can do it well, certainly most guards, so it’s not as if you should build a strategy around it. You want to build strategies on what you have that your opponents do not have, not on what every team has.

The Jazz were a mind boggling 50/83 or 60.2% from the field, whereas the Nuggets were a more down to Earth 38/80 or 47.5%. Mehmet Okur made 6/7 threes as the Jazz were 11/15 overall from downtown, while the Nuggets were a miserable 5/21. The Nuggets are generally going to be terrible on three-point shooting if Smith is not making them, and Smith was definitely not making threes in this game; he was just 1/4. Atkins and Anthony were both 1/2, but Iverson and Kleiza were 1/3, and Carter, Najera, and Diawara were all 0/2. When Smith is not hitting threes, the Nuggets start a game in a fairly deep hole.

Turnovers were about even, but the Nuggets were more than doubled by the Jazz in assisting. You read that correctly, the Jazz made more than twice as many assists as did the Nuggets. If you have been reading these reports, you already know what happened and why. Iverson, sensing correctly that the Jazz were going to score a lot of points in this game, decided to concentrate mostly on scoring and less on assisting. So he decided to leave the assisting to Anthony Carter and to a lesser extent to Chucky Atkins, who was playing in his second game following two months out with an injury. But Carter and Atkins did not come through; they made only 6 assists in a combined 42 minutes.

The Nuggets violated both of the guidelines that you must meet if you want to have a well run offense and maximize your chances to win. They failed to come close to the number of assists they should get adjusted for their pace, which is 25; the Nuggets made only 17 assists. And the top two Nuggets’ assisters failed to make at least half of all the assists; Carter and Iverson combined made just 8 assists. So the assisting was spread out too much, indicating an offense where there is too much uncertainty and confusion and not enough effectiveness and efficiency. Amazingly, you can say that the Nuggets had no effective point guard in this game, despite playing point guards for a combined 72 minutes if you count Iverson as you should.

The absences of Nene and Martin killed the Nuggets in rebounding. Melo may have picked up his rebounding this season, but he is no where near a dedicated enough rebounder to be able to make up for the absence of Kenyon Martin. And Marcus Camby has been in a slump since the calendar flipped to March. Camby made just 9 rebounds in this game, 5 fewer than his average in one of the most important games of the year. Anthony made 6 rebounds, and Kleiza also made 6, but that was about it for rebounding for the Nuggets; no other Nugget made more than 2 rebounds. The Jazz badly defeated the Nuggets in offensive rebounding 9-5, and they badly defeated the Nuggets in defensive rebounding 34-25.

Just as the Nuggets use fast pace and fast breaks as a major strategy, the Jazz use conservative and efficient shooting and hyper rough defending to win games. The Jazz by far have more personal fouls called against them than any other team, and that is no accident. I think that Coach Sloan fears that the Jazz would be terrible defensively without all the pushing and elbowing, and he may very well be right, because even with all the rough stuff, the Jazz are only in the middle of the pack in terms of points surrendered, whether or not you adjust for pace. The Jazz so far this season are giving up 107.9 points for every 100 possessions, good enough for 13th in the NBA, while the Nuggets are giving up 106.4 points for every 100 possessions, good enough for 6th in the NBA. So the Nuggets are 1 1/2 points better than the Jazz defensively.

The real strength of the Jazz is in their extremely efficient offense. While the Nuggets try to use speed and fast breaks to have a great offense, the Jazz try to use efficient scoring to get there, much of it from carefully practiced plays where everyone is on the same page. For example, Boozer and Williams are running the pick and roll these days almost as effectively as Stockton and Malone used to run it for years and years in Utah. The Jazz are the 2nd best offense in the NBA after you make the very important adjustment for pace, scoring 114.2 points per 100 possessions. The Nuggets are the 11th best offense in the NBA after you adjust for pace, with 109.9 points per 100 possessions. So the Jazz are a little more than 4 points better than the Nuggets on offense per 100 possessions.

If you look at the all-important differential between points scored and points given up per 100 possessions, the Nuggets are +3.5 points, but the Jazz are +6.3 points, substantially better. The Trailblazers have a differential of -1.0 points, incidentally, so they are not at all competitive with either the Nuggets or the Jazz. So if the Jazz win the Northwest division, and it is almost certain now that they will, the best team in the division will have won in terms of points scored minus points given up, with pace corrected for.

NBA TEAMS RANKED ACCORDING TO THE ULTIMATE MEASURE: POINTS SCORED PER 100 POSSESSIONS MINUS POINTS GIVEN UP PER 100 POSSESSIONS as of March 9, 2008
1. Celtics +12.2
2. Pistons +8.3
3. Lakers +7.9
4. Jazz +6.3
5. Hornets +5.8
6. Spurs +5.8
7. Suns +5.7
8. Rockets +5.6
9. Magic +5.4
10. Raptors +4.9
11. Mavericks +4.9
12. Warriors +3.8
13. Nuggets +3.5

Since the Celtics and the Pistons play in the much weaker Eastern Conference, this does not mean that the Celtics or the Pistons will be favored to win the Championship against the Lakers this year.

Notice that the Cavaliers are not on this list. In fact, the Cavaliers’ differential is a dangerously bad -0.6. LeBron James has to be a miracle worker just to make the Cavaliers competitive; it’s too much to ask to think that he will be able to advance the Cavaliers in the playoffs again this year.

Notice how this extremely important measure very closely parallels the actual win-loss standings. You can see that the Nuggets are only 9th best in the West, which is exactly their position in the win-loss standings. Notice too that the Warriors are very slightly ahead of the Nuggets, just as they are in the standings. However, the difference between the Warriors and the Nuggets is so small that either team could win both of the remaining two head to head games and therefore most likely take the last playoff spot from the other. If the Nuggets want to make the playoffs bad enough, they are good enough as they are, warts and all, to defeat the Warriors in both of the head to head games, even given all of the shortcomings and problems they have that we cover here.

Nuggets 1 is predicting that the Los Angeles Lakers will win the 2008 NBA Championship, a prediction which is heavily supported by this performance measure, keeping in mind once again that the West is a far stronger Conference than the East. On the other hand, if it is a Lakers-Celtics series, it should be a great 6 or 7 game series, because the Celtics’ +12.2 is a huge number even considering how weak the East is.

PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 45%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 60%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 53%. However, and I know this is a little confusing, the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, meaning that they will not make the playoffs. It seems right now that the Suns, the Warriors, and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last 2 playoff spots in the West. All three of them are considered likely to make the playoffs, in statistical terms, but not all three are going to make it. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Suns and the Warriors are favored in this race. The Suns’ victory over the Spurs on Sunday, March 9 gave them a boost over the Warriors and the Nuggets.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that, most likely, Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, Atkins was a disaster in his first time back, but did a little better in this Jazz game. It’s still unknown whether Atkins can help to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a lower percentage chance than 53% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs.

The Lakers, the Rockets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Hornets are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, and the Mavericks are currently considered near locks to make the playoffs. However, the Rockets are no longer really total locks, due to the loss of Yao Ming for the season. But I think they are still near locks. The Suns are in trouble, due to their terrible trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, but they are in less trouble after their win at home over the Spurs on March 9.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
1. Lakers 58-24
2. Rockets 56-26
3. Spurs 55-27
4. Jazz 54-28
5. Hornets 53-29
6. Mavericks 52-30
7. Suns 51-31
8. Warriors 51-31

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
9. Nuggets 49-33
10. Trailblazers 42-40

The Rockets have lost their best player, and one of the best players in the NBA, Yao Ming, for the rest of the season. Therefore, they will probably drop substantially below their current projection, since the projections do not take injuries into account. The Suns will probably drop a little more also, because they made a bad trade when they gave up “The Matrix,” Shawn Marion. At this time, however, Nuggets 1 does not believe that either the Rockets or the Suns will fail to win at least 50 games, so they will most likely finish ahead of the Nuggets despite their difficulties.

The Warriors are now 2 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last spot. The schedules of the two teams are roughly equal difficulty from here on out. If the Nuggets make up the two games, so that the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games.

Now that the Nuggets are 2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are most likely out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain more likely to make the playoffs than the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, they then become a little more likely to win the last spot than the Warriors do. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT
Wed, Mar 12 Toronto 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 13 @ Phoenix 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 15 Memphis 10:30 PM
Tue, Mar 18 @ Sacramento 10:00 PM
Wed, Mar 19 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Fri, Mar 21 Houston 10:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ LA Lakers 9:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM
Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM
Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM

NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT
Mon, Mar 10 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM
Wed, Mar 12 Memphis 9:00 PM
Fri, Mar 14 Toronto 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 16 Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Mar 18 @ Detroit 7:30 PM
Wed, Mar 19 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM
Fri, Mar 21 @ New Jersey 7:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ Toronto 3:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM
Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM
Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM

So overall, Nuggets 1 agrees with the Hollinger system; as of now, we think the Nuggets will fail to make the playoffs. But it will probably be an extremely close call, and it could go either way. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 13-7 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 12-8 will probably not be good enough, and 11-9 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 14-6.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is very unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 6%. The odds that Utah will win the Northwest are 94% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them, and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch.

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME
Allen Iverson: He suffered a sprained right ring finger in the Spurs game on 3/7. X-Rays were negative and he remains probable for the Spurs game.
Kenyon Martin: Went out after 9 minutes in this game, after suffering a mild concussion. CBS Sportsline says Martin is doubtful, but the official Nuggets sites says thatMartin is probable for the Spurs game.
Chucky Atkins: has played in two-straight games after missing the previous 26 games due to a surgically repaired right groin/abdominal strain (Sports Hernia). He is probable for the Spurs game.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He is out until at least the middle of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. Nene has now missed 27 straight games this season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season.
Steven Hunter: A death in the family made him unavailable for the Jazz game. He is questionable for tonight’s Spurs game.

JAZZ PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Andrei Kirilenko: He is day-to-day with a bruised hip.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 9, 2008

The Nuggets are under an ORANGE ALERT, on account of the following problems.

INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND LEAVES
1. Kenyon Martin, injury during the game 14 points
2. Nene illness 14 points
3. Steven Hunter 4 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
Chucky Atkins, 10 points

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured.

No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points.

2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver coaches believe are more important than performance on the court.

J.R. Smith was partially benched: 0 points. Smith was not partially benched.

3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl’s beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here.

The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points. Kleiza probably played too many minutes, but that is not definitely an error.

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, reduces the damage. At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Anthony to some extent. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding.

However, another problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the effective point guard in the game: Iverson, Carter, or both Iverson and Carter roughly equally. And in any case, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes.

In any event, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays.

On defense a system is much less important than on offense. How good your defense is is determined much more by effort and skill than by strategy. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The choice varies during each game, and usually depends on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader, as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. At least as important as whether a zone or a man to man defense is in effect is the quality of the actual defending.

Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 13 Points

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It’s not anywhere near as bad as some fans think it is.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 55, which constitutes ORANGE ALERT. The status is on the border between ORANGE and YELLOW alert, so both descriptions are shown:

ORANGE ALERT (55-74): Moderate damage is occurring to the season. The entire season is under serious threat, and you can just about forget about beating quality teams. About 3/4 of all would be wins against good teams will now be losses. Beating mid-level teams is much more difficult. About 1/2 of games against mid-level teams that would have been wins will now be losses under this alert. Even poor teams can often beat an otherwise good team that is under this alert. Close to 1/4 of games against poor teams that would have been wins will now be losses under this alert. A good team has been reduced to being a mid-level team, at best, when it is under this alert.

YELLOW ALERT (40-54): Minor damage is occurring to the season. The entire season is under medium threat. Beating quality teams is more difficult and will be relatively unusual. About 1/2 of all would be wins against good teams will now be losses. Beating mid-level teams is a little more difficult. About 1/4 of games that would be wins against mid-level teams will now be losses. Beating low level teams is still relatively easy. A good team has become in between a good team and a mid-level team when it is under this alert.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS
All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE ALERT STATUS FOR THIS GAME
The Nuggets were on the border between YELLOW and ORANGE alert, and the JAZZ were probably in GREY alert, so the Jazz had a 1 1/2 level alert status advantage, along with the home court advantage in this game. The alert status system is still relatively new, but a preliminary estimate of what the point differential will be for each 1 level difference in the alert status has been made, and that estimate is 4-6 points. The home court advantage has been estimated by other basketball statisticians as being 3-4 points. So the Jazz had a 9-13 point advantage in this game from the outside factors. They won by 27, but you can estimate that their real advantage over the Nuggets was 14-18 points, still enough to be a statement win: the Jazz are better than the Nuggets this year, folks, despite the apparent talent advantage for the Nuggets.

George Karl has been doing better with the rotations lately, which has prevented the alert status from being even worse.

Atkins did better so his alert points were reduced.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality yet. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. If Nene in fact never returns, and Atkins continues to be a lost cause, and Karl goes back to making his usual mistakes, and if Carter starts to reassert himself at point guard, the Nuggets will range between strong YELLOW and strong ORANGE the rest of the season, and that right there may cost the Nuggets a playoff spot.

And don’t expect George Karl to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon.
The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 10 Jazz 9
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Jazz 9

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 45
Jazz Non-Starters Points: 47

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 10
Jazz Non-Starters Rebounds: 17

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 5
Jazz Non-Starters Assists: 11

THE RESERVES IN THIS GAME
Due to the return of Atkins after a very long injury out, and the total uncertainty as to whether Atkins is going to be able to earn back from Anthony Carter the starting point guard slot, Karl now has 9 players he wants to play 10 minutes or more. Normally, Karl doesn’t like to play more than 8 players for 10 or more minutes in a game. But this is a special situation brought about by the combination of the return of Atkins and by J.R. Smith playing extremely well. J.R. Smith is currently untouchable because the Nuggets are seeing mostly the good J.R. Smith and very little of the bad J.R. Smith these days, and because Iverson has publicly stated that Smith is crucial for the Nuggets’ stretch run. Fans these days would call for the head of Coach Karl were he to cut Smith’s minutes below 10. In this game, because Kenyon Martin was knocked out early, Yakhouba Diawara in heavy garbage time was the 9th man instead of Martin.

Sloan is one of the best coaches in the NBA and, generally speaking, the best coaches prefer to, and have the competence to, play 9 players and every once in a while 10 players for 10 or more minutes in games. The extra player gives them an extra wildcard chance that somebody will surprise with a huge game and help their team get the win.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-JAZZ PLAYER RATINGS
NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Allen Iverson: Game 38.5 Season 41.4
Carmelo Anthony: Game 34.1 Season 39.3
Linas Kleiza: Game 21.6 Season 18.3
J.R. Smith: Game 19.5 Season 16.0
Marcus Camby: Game 18.7 Season 32.5
Chucky Atkins: Game 13.2 Season 6.1
Kenyon Martin: Game 8.8 Season 22.1
Eduardo Najera: Game 7.7 Season 13.4
Anthony Carter: Game 1.3 Season 20.4
Yakhouba Diawara: Game 3.3 Season 5.1

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Personal Leave

Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

JAZZ PLAYER RATINGS
Mehmet Okur: Game 52.1 Season 24.9
Carlos Boozer: Game 41.2 Season 39.1
Paul Millsap: Game 41.2 Season 17.3
Deron Williams: Game 35.8 Season 37.8
Kyle Korver: Game 24.6 Season 15.6
C.J. Miles: Game 20.1 Season 8.4
Ronnie Brewer: Game 17.8 Season 20.6
Matt Harpring: Game 14.9 Season 13.3
Ronnie Price: Game 10.2 Season 6.0

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Najera, and Diawara.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
Both Iverson and Anthony were held slightly below their averages, but this was due to reduced minutes and not to any serious quality of play problem.

Both J.R. Smith and Kleiza were a little above normal, but still far below the production of Iverson and Anthony, of course. Chucky Atkins was much improved over his unproductive start the game before; he was 4/7 and 1/2 from downtown for 9 points in 21 minutes.

Marcus Camby, who was only about 60% as productive as usual, has yet to play well in the month of March; this was the 4th game of a slump that actually got worse in this game. Camby has been getting more foul calls and making fewer blocks than usual in these 4 games. The last game that Camby was great in was on Feb. 29 against the Clippers.

Kenyon Martin played only 9 minutes and was on track for a big game before he was literally knocked out of the game. The Najera magic from the Spurs game the night before was no where to be found; Najera was about 40% below his normal not counting defending.

As Nuggets 1 has warned and explained, Carter is becoming almost meaningless out there in games where Iverson readily passes and makes assists. As you can see, he was almost meaningless in this game, even though neither he nor Iverson got a good number of assists.

The Jazz, astoundingly, had 3 players who were more than twice as productive as usual: C Okur, PF Millsap, and SG Miles. This is the kind of thing that will happen when the bottom falls out of the Nuggets’ defense. SF and 3-point specialist Korver was kept somewhat short of double his usual, as was PG Price. But both of them were more than half again more productive than usual.

In total, the Jazz had a staggering 5 players who were way above their normals, due to the Nuggets’ defensive collapse. The Nuggets didn’t have anyone way above normal, and they had 3 players way below normal, 4 if you count Martin.

PF Boozer and PG Williams, the primary stars of the Jazz, were both rock solid in this game and achieved their high performance averages.

SF Harpring was a little better than usual, and SG Brewer was a little short.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-JAZZ REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Mehmet Okur, Uta 1.447
2. Carlos Boozer, Uta 1.373
3. Paul Millsap, Uta 1.288
4. Allen Iverson, Den 1.283
5. Carmelo Anthony, Den 1.066
6. Deron Williams, Uta 1.053
7. Kyle Korver, Uta 1.025
8. Ronnie Price, Uta 1.020
9. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.978…Martin played only 9 minutes.
10. C.J. Miles, Uta 0.874
11. Matt Harpring, Uta 0.784
12. J.R. Smith, Den 0.750
13. Ronnie Brewer, Uta 0.742
14. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.697
15. Chucky Atkins, Den 0.629
16. Marcus Camby, Den 0.603
17. Yakhouba Diawara, Den 0.330
18. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.308
19. Anthony Carter, Den 0.062

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Mehmet Okur was a superstar and was the best player on the court. Boozer and Millsap for the Jazz and Iverson for the Nuggets were stars-plus. Anthony for the Nuggets and Williams for the Jazz were plain old stars. Among the 6 players who were stars or better, the Jazz had 4, including the top 3 players on the court.

Korver and Price were outstanding for the Jazz and Martin was outstanding in 9 minutes for the Nuggets.

Miles was very good and Harpring and Brewer were good for the Jazz. J.R. Smith had a good game for the Nuggets.

The Nuggets had 3 players who were just mediocre: Kleiza, Atkins, and Camby.

Diawara and Najera were extremely poor for the Nuggets, and Carter was a total disaster. Among players who were mediocre or worse, the Nuggets had 6 and the Jazz had none. The Nuggets had 4 players who were better than mediocre and 6 who were mediocre or worse, while all 9 Jazz players were better than mediocre.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Yakhouba Diawara: +1
Chucky Atkins: -1
Kenyon Martin: -4
J.R. Smith: -4
Linas Kleiza: -12
Eduardo Najera: -13
Allen Iverson: -22
Anthony Carter: -23
Carmelo Anthony: -27
Marcus Camby: -30

OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS
Fans get really upset when Anthony and Camby are at the bottom of the plus-minus; they start talking about blowing the team up and shipping Melo out of town because he’s “coasting.” But in a full scale rout, usually the best plus-minus will be for players who played the least, and that is what you see here. Camby has been in a slump since the beginning of March, and there were signs he was heading into this slump in late February.

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 13, Team 0, Anthony 3, Atkins 1, Camby 0, Carter 3, Diawara 0, (Green 1), Iverson 2, Kleiza 1, Martin 0, Najera 1, Smith 1

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 23, Anthony 3, Atkins 0, Camby 4, Carter 2, Diawara 0, Iverson 1, Kleiza 5, Martin 1, Najera 5, Smith 2

Anthony Carter played 21 minutes and was 0/4 and 0/2 on threes for 0 points, and he made 4 assists and 1 rebound.

Yakhouba Diawara played 10 minutes and was 0/2, 0/2 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 2 points, and he made 1 assist and 1 rebound.

Eduardo Najera played 25 minutes and was 2/5 and 0/2 on 3’s for 4 points, and he made 2 assists and 2 rebounds.

Marcus Camby played 31 minutes and was 2/7 and 2/2 from the line for 6 points, and he made 9 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 assist, and 1 steal.

Chucky Atkins played 21 minutes and was 4/7 and 1/2 on 3’s for 9 points, and he made 2 assists.

Linas Kleiza played 31 minutes and was 5/9, 1/3 on 3’s, and 3/4 from the line for 14 points, and he made 6 rebounds.

J.R. Smith played 26 minutes and was 7/12, 1/4 on 3’s, and 1/3 from the line for 16 points, and he made 1 steal and 1 rebound.

Kenyon Martin played 9 minutes and was 1/1 for 2 points, and he made 2 rebounds, 1 block, 1 assist, and 1 steal.

Carmelo Anthony played 32 minutes and was 7/15, 1/2 on 3’s, and 9/12 from the line for 24 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal.

Allen Iverson played 30 minutes and was 10/17, 1/3 on 3’s, and 7/10 from the line for 28 points, and he made 4 assists and 2 rebounds.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Monday, March 10 in San Antonio to play the Spurs at 6:30 pm mountain time. The Spurs will be playing on back to back nights, but the Nuggets will not be. So the Spurs’ home court advantage will be approximately offset by the Nuggets’ extra rest advantage.

Najera is Huge and Iverson is Outstanding While Running the Point as the Nuggets Beat the Spurs in Denver 109-96

2008-03-08T10:27:00.000-08:00

Few people know that the Spurs and the Nuggets are almost exactly equal in talent. Even fewer know that the Nuggets, if you adjust for their fast pace, are not vastly inferior to the Spurs on defense. The reason the Spurs almost always win, to put it bluntly, is that they are a lot smarter than the Nuggets.

So two of the NBA’s most talented teams, and two of the NBA’s best defensive teams, the Nuggets and Spurs, played in front of a national TV audience and in front of an unusually raucous thank God it’s Friday crowd at the Pepsi Center in Denver. In this clash of titans, Spurs Coach Greg Popovich tried every strategy, called every play, put every player in the game, called every timeout, yelled at every player, and cussed at every official that he could think of. But nothing could stop the extremely fired up Nuggets, who were aided substantially by their crowd for a change, from coming out in the 2nd half and taking no prisoners.

Although Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili were rock solid as usual, the third piece of the Spurs’ three-headed monster, PG Tony Parker, was almost a disaster, and nothing Popovich did could get the Spurs out of the huge hole that was created by Parker’s poor game.

Eduardo Najera defended well, rotated well, screened well, scrambled for loose balls, hustled from all over the place for rebounds, made 8/10 shots for 19 points in 25 minutes, worked extremely hard for 2 steals, worked smart for 2 assists, and played his game of the year and one of his all time greatest games as a Nugget, as the Denver Nuggets maintained their fighting chance to get one of the last two playoff spots in the West by defeating the San Antonio Spurs in Denver 109-96.

The Nuggets are most likely battling for the last playoff spot, unless the Suns collapse even worse than expected following their loss of Shawn Marion via a bad trade. However, before anyone gets carried away, and starts to think that the Nuggets made a statement, you must know that the Spurs were playing on back to back nights, so the Nuggets had both the home court and the extra rest advantages, and they were fired up even by thank God it’s Friday standards. It is pretty rare for the road team to win when it is playing on back to back nights, and the home team is not.

In one of the highlights of the whole season, Najera raced in from the right corner to grab an offensive rebound from the left side of the rim and pumped it way out to J.R. Smith, who swished a sweet long three. You almost never see that kind of play against the Spurs. As for Smith, he doesn’t even have to be on or near the line to make threes these days. On another Smith long 3 that was swished, the ESPN announcer remarked that the extremely high trajectory of the ball might have disturbed some pigeons in the rafters of the arena.

Both Najera and Smith were especially impulsive in this game. But George Karl thinks impulsiveness is a bad thing in basketball. He thinks that a player should always think for a second before he does anything. But players who have legendary status, such as Allen Iverson, are almost always given the benefit of the doubt by Karl regarding their thinking and decisions in games.

Other Coaches want to help direct the thoughts of their players while games are going on. In other words, they want to do some of the thinking for their players. But Karl perceives his role as limited to trying to get his players to think better in general, so that they can be better thinkers and decision makers during games. This sounds reasonable at first, and it sounds so normal, because that is what the objective of education is, to get students to be better thinkers. Unfortunately, basketball is not the same as life in general.

Karl will sometimes tell a player what he thinks he should do, but he won’t tell a player how to decide when or what he should do in different situations. For example, he will tell Melo to go the rim more, but he won’t tell him when he should instead go to the rim and when he should kick it out to J.R. Smith or Linas Kleiza on the perimeter. What Karl will not tell his players is very important in a basketball game, because most players can see only the trees, the other players, and can not see the forest, which is how the game as a whole is going and how it might be won.

With Karl, the thinking burden is almost all on the player. This helps explain why Karl does not feel the need to call offensive plays, either specifically or generally, in preparation for or during games. Karl thinks the players are supposed to think of offensive plays as they go. Or more precisely, players are supposed to be able to think of the right thing to try at any given time. And Karl holds all of his players responsible for their game decisions and reserves the right to criticize those decisions, even directly to the media, whereas most other Coaches in effect take some of the responsibility for decisions made by players in games, and almost never criticize a player’s decision making in public.

The approach of those other coaches has a more successful record than Karl’s approach in the NBA, particularly in hard fought playoff games. (Coach, I hate to tell you, but even A.I. doesn’t always think about what he is going to do next, even for 1 second. He’ll never tell, so I just revealed his little secret.)

Najera and Smith were key performers in this game precisely because they played impulsively, with instinct, without having to waste a second thinking. Players who have abilities and who have trained to make those abilities ready to rock and roll should be chock loaded with confidence, and a huge amount of confidence naturally leads to impulsive decisions. Unlike life in general, sports rewards those who make decisions extremely quickly, including in no time at all. In short, impulsiveness is not a bad thing in Sports, unless the player does not have the abilities and the training to allow impulsive decisions to pay off. But if that is the case, the player would not be a pro NBA player in the first place, would he? The fact that Karl will never understand this is a true shame.

It was Iverson playing both guard positions for most of the night. PG Anthony Carter did little in this game and PG Chucky Atkins did almost nothing. To say that Iverson was masterful while running things would be an understatement; he made 9 assists and only 2 turnovers while scoring 29 points on 10/16 shooting and 10/11 from the line. For those who think Iverson can’t play point guard: if you don’t think that’s good enough for a point guard, then you have your requirements set way to high, my friend. For those who think J.R. Smith is not a good enough 2-guard, please read some recent game reports, especially the last one for the Suns game, and see if you still think that way.

We have been discussing and proving the folly of having PG Anthony Carter and PG-SG Allen Iverson out on the floor at the same time in recent reports. In this game, it was obvious that Iverson was playing both guard positions for much of the time he was out there, and he was out there for virtually the whole game. Only when J.R. Smith was in the game did Iverson wisely step back a little and mostly limit himself to running the point. The reason for this is that The Answer has become a true believer in Smith’s ability to contribute huge scoring for the Nuggets. On the other hand, Iverson is more and more proceeding almost as if Carter is not even there.

Carter did very little in this game as a result of Iverson’s decisions, exactly as we predicted. Carter had his minutes limited to 19 minutes, down from his season average of 30. Was this because George Karl has finally understood this problem and is starting to address it? No, of course not. Carter’s reduced minutes were due almost entirely to the need to insert PG Chucky Atkins into a game for the first time in about two months.

However, there was a 3 minute stretch, in the middle of the 2nd quarter, when the Nuggets had only 1 point guard out there. Iverson was getting a rare breather, Carter was also out, and Chucky Atkins was the only PG out there at that time. Of course, Atkins did nothing to speak of during that time, but we have been begging for a one point guard offense, and we got it for 3 minutes, and we should be grateful just for that. Now maybe if we wait about 10 years, Karl will finally have realized that Iverson should be the point guard instead of Atkins or Carter.

Chucky Atkins, who was brought on to the team from the Grizzlies to be the starting PG for the Nuggets, played for the first time since early January after having missed 26 straight games due to a hernia.

Nuggets 1 has recently gone all out to point out the folly of having both Carter and Iverson, both very small guards, in the game at the same time, since Iverson is gradually taking over more and more of the point guard duties. Nuggets 1 has pointed out that it is borderline madness to have Carter and Iverson on the floor at the same time for more than about half a quarter, since Carter is close to worthless once Iverson has decided to go into the point guard mode.

The Spurs apparently didn’t get the memo about how Iverson is gradually taking over running the point for the Nuggets, so that he is essentially playing both guard positions at once, even while PG Carter is out there with him, so that there is a bigger payoff than ever if you double team A.I. They instead decided to double team Melo, and they did that well of course, but only in the 1st half. Bruce Bowen especially frustrated the heck out of Melo in the 1st half. Double teaming Melo is so old fashioned, Spurs! Come on, get with the times and double Iverson a lot more next time if the Nuggets have Iverson-Carter or Iverson-Atkins in the back court at the same time! Granted, Melo can still do a lot of damage, but Iverson is the guy from which almost every Nuggets play comes from these days.

George Karl urged Melo to take it to the rim more in the second half to get out of the rut Bowen and company had put him in, and that was exactly the right thing to do. If they are doubling and being physical to take away the midrange jumper, go to the spin moves, the stutter stepping, the pick and rolls, the kick outs. Don’t think you can still make ordinary midrange jumpers when the Spurs are draped all over you like a wet rag. Take it to the rim one way or another. So Melo and the Nuggets did this in the 3rd quarter, and the Spurs were then crushed in that quarter, which eliminated any chance they could win this game. Almost by accident, the way to beat the Spurs was discovered by the Nuggets. Abandon the midrange jumper, and replace it with dunks, layups, offensive rebounds, free throws, and kick outs to the perimeter for threes.

The Nuggets outscored the Spurs in the paint 42-30, and they got a nice 20 points off fast breaks versus 14 fast break points for the Spurs. At the same time, the Nuggets, who are not a good three-point shooting team by any stretch, nevertheless made an amazing 7/14 threes in this game. J.R. Smith was 3/5 and Iverson was 2/3 to lead the Nuggets.

Turnovers were about even, but the Nuggets prevailed in offensive rebounding 5-3 and in defensive rebounding 34-28. Camby made 13 rebounds, Anthony made 8 rebounds, Najera made 6 rebounds, and Martin made 5 rebounds.

Overall, the Nuggets were an astounding 40/74 or 54.1% from the field, while the Spurs were a not quite as astounding 37/75 or 49.3%.

Coach Popovich, realizing that the Spurs’ cause was lost in what is always a long shot situation, trying to win on the road while playing on back to back nights, while the home team is rested, pulled Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, and Bowen half way through the 4th quarter, with the Nuggets leading 96-81 and more fired up than anyone can remember them being this season. This was not a mistake as the ESPN announcer said it might be. Popovich recognizes a lost cause when he sees one.

When you look at this game closely, you can see that the truth is that the Nuggets became a rough, blue collar version of the Spurs for a night. They had to, because the Spurs always insist that you play their way if you want to beat them. The Nuggets changed their stripes, in other words, and were able to defeat the Spurs while playing at the Spurs’ slow pace, and while relying heavily on defense. The shock on Duncan and Parker’s faces late in the 4th after they had been pulled from the game was priceless. They were shocked that Popovich had tried almost everything in the Spurs’ book, and nothing worked well against the Nuggets on this night.

They were even more shocked that the Nuggets had a surface resemblance to themselves. How could this be? they asked themselves. How could a team that knows so little about how to win basketball games have overcome every trick that Popovich and the Spurs threw at them?

I’ll tell you the reasons. First, it was because not all games are won by those who know more about how to win. Some games are won by hard work, talent, and impulsiveness alone.

Second, The Answer has finally figured out that the answer for the Nuggets is for him to make sure that the crucial point guard position is run by someone who has enough talent to do it well, and that would be himself. Allen Iverson has crossed another river in the quest for the ring.

PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 50%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 65%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 67%. However, and I know this is confusing, the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, meaning that they will not make the playoffs. It seems right now that the Suns, the Warriors, and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last 2 playoff spots in the West. All three of them are considered likely to make the playoffs, in statistical terms, but not all three are going to make it. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Suns and the Warriors are favored in that race, although the Warriors-Nuggets race is razor tight.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that, most likely, neither Nene nor Atkins is going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Atkins was a disaster in his first time back in the Spurs game. If the Hollinger odds adjusted for injuries, it would show a lower percentage chance than 67% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs.

The Lakers, the Rockets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Hornets are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, and the Mavericks are currently considered near locks to make the playoffs. However, the Rockets are no longer really total locks, due to the loss of Yao Ming for the season. But they are still near locks. The Suns are in trouble, due to their terrible trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
1. Lakers 59-23
2. Spurs 56-26
3. Rockets 55-27
4. Jazz 54-28
5. Hornets 53-29
6. Mavericks 51-31
7. Suns 51-31
8. Warriors 50-32

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
9. Nuggets 49-33
10. Trailblazers 42-40

The Rockets have just lost their best player, and one of the best players in the NBA, Yao Ming, for the rest of the season. Therefore, they will probably drop substantially below their current projection, since the projections do not take injuries into account. The Suns will probably drop a little more also, because they made a bad trade when they gave up “The Matrix,” Shawn Marion. At this time, however, Nuggets 1 does not believe that either the Rockets or the Suns will fail to win at least 50 games, so they will most likely finish ahead of the Nuggets despite their difficulties.

As for the Warriors, they have an easier schedule than the Nuggets the rest of the way, so Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, and thinks that the Warriors will finish very slightly ahead of the Nuggets. If the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games. If either the Nuggets or the Warriors win both of the remaining two head to head games that the teams play, then that winner will earn a big advantage toward securing the final playoff spot. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

So overall, Nuggets 1 agrees with the Hollinger system; as of now, we think the Nuggets will fail to make the playoffs. But it will be an extremely close call, and it could go either way. One extra win by the Nuggets could easily be all that is needed for them to make the playoffs. Specifically, if the Nuggets can go 13-8 in their last 22 games, and finish 50-32, that is likely to be good enough for at least the 8th seed. All bets are off if the Nuggets are 12-9 in their last 22 games. If the Nuggets are 11-10 or worse, it is very unlikely that they will make the playoffs.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is very unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 12%. The odds that Utah will win the Northwest are 88% right now. The Nuggets would most likely have to beat the Jazz in both of their remaining games against them, both of which are in Salt Lake City, and one of which is this Saturday night, in order to have a shot at winning the Northwest.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE / INJURY REPORT
Chucky Atkins: returned to the lineup vs. San Antonio on 3/7 after missing the previous 26 games due to a surgically repaired right groin/abdominal strain (Sports Hernia). He is considered probable for tonight’s game against the Jazz.
Nene: underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He is out until at least the middle of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. Nene has now missed 27 straight games this season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is likely to be out for the rest of the season.
Carmelo Anthony: suffered a left knee contusion in this game, but is probable for the Jazz game tonight.
Allen Iverson: suffered a sprained right ring finger in this game. X-Rays were negative and he is probable for tonight’s game. CBS Sportsline has Iverson as questionable.
Steven Hunter: A death in the family made him unavailable for last night’s Spurs game, and also for Saturday night’s Jazz game.

SPURS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
None, all Spurs on the roster were available.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 8, 2008

The Nuggets are under a GREY ALERT, on account of the following problems.

INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND LEAVES
1. Nene illness 14 points
2. Steven Hunter 4 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
Chucky Atkins, 13 points

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured.

No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points.

2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver coaches believe are more important than performance on the court.

J.R. Smith was partially benched: 0 points. Smith was not partially benched.

3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl’s beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here.

The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points. Najera and Smith were huge from off the bench, and they both received their minimum reasonable minutes. Kleiza’s minutes have been cut, but that makes sense because Kleiza is in a slump. Wow, Karl did a great job in this game on the player rotations!

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations and responding appropriately, in particular games, reduces the damage. At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Anthony to some extent. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding.

However, another problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the effective point guard in the game: Iverson, Carter, or both Iverson and Carter roughly equally. And in any case, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes.

In any event, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays.

On defense a system is much less important than on offense. How good your defense is is determined much more by effort and skill than by strategy. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The choice varies during each game, and usually depends on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader, as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. At least as important as whether a zone or a man to man defense is in effect is the quality of the actual defending.

Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 6 Points

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It’s not anywhere near as bad as some fans think it is.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 37, which constitutes GREY ALERT.

GREY ALERT (30-39): There are relatively minor problems leading to a small threat against the success of the entire season. It is still possible to beat quality teams, but it will be a little more unusual to beat a quality team, because about 1/4 of what would have been wins against good teams will now be losses when there is a GREY ALERT.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE ALERT STATUS
George Karl has gotten the rotations within reason, for a change, and Iverson has taken over running the point more than ever so, all of the sudden, the Nuggets alert status has improved substantially.

The Nuggets would be all the way up to GREEN alert, except that Chucky Atkins is showing nothing so far in his return from a long injury out. So Nuggets 1 listed him in the “severe and unexpected crucial player slump” section. The points will be reduced as Atkins gets better.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality yet. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. If Nene in fact never returns, and Atkins continues to be a lost cause, and Karl goes back to making his usual mistakes, and if Carter starts to reassert himself at point guard, the Nuggets will return to YELLOW alert. In any event, George Karl is definitely not going to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Spurs 12
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Spurs 9

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 34
Spurs Non-Starters Points: 28

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 10
Spurs Non-Starters Rebounds: 8

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 8
Spurs Non-Starters Assists: 8

THE RESERVES IN THIS GAME
Coach Greg Popovich of the Spurs is one of the most intelligent basketball coaches in the NBA today, and he is one of only a few coaches who can manage a 9 or 9-plus player rotation in a game. In this game, Popovich played 9 players for 10 or more minutes, and 3 other players for 6, 9, and 9 minutes. Although Popovich pulled his stars half way through the 4th quarter, with the Nuggets leading 96-81, he through everything including the kitchen sink into the effort to win this back to back road game prior to that point. Of those 3 players who played less than 10 minutes, only 1 of them was limited to what Popovich decided was garbage time, Matt Bonner for 6 minutes. The other two, Jacque Vaughn and Fabricio Oberto, played much earlier in the game, for 9 minutes each. So Popovich came extremely close to playing 11 players for 10 or more minutes in non-garbage time basketball, an astounding feat that probably no other coach, even Phil Jackson, would be able to manage well. So the longstanding dispute about who is the smartest coach in basketball, Jackson or Popovich, may have been decided last night, at least pending fresh evidence, in favor of Popovich.

Since J.R. Smith and especially Eduardo Najera were on fire, the Nuggets’ non-starters were able to get relatively unusual wins over the opponent’s non-starters in both points and rebounds.

Nugget’s non-starters generally don’t get many assists at all, but in this game, they got 8, and tied the Spurs’ non-starters, who generally do get a good number of assists in most games. Having the Nuggets’ non-starters get a lot of assists counts as one of those “I thought I’d never see” that moments.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-SPURS PLAYER RATINGS
NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS

Allen Iverson: Game 47.8 Season 41.5
Eduardo Najera: Game 36.5 Season 13.5
Carmelo Anthony: Game 34.9 Season 39.4
J.R. Smith: Game 24.0 Season 15.9
Marcus Camby: Game 18.6 Season 32.8
Kenyon Martin: Game 12.7 Season 22.4
Anthony Carter: Game 9.3 Season 20.8
Linas Kleiza: Game 7.8 Season 18.2
Chucky Atkins: Game -0.8 Season 5.4

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Personal Leave

Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

SPURS PLAYER RATINGS
Tim Duncan: Game 44.1 Season 38.9
Manu Ginobili: Game 38.9 Season 34.3
Bruce Bowen: Game 22.1 Season 11.0
Kurt Thomas: Game 16.0 Season 19.2
Ime Udoka: Game 10.6 Season 10.2
Robert Horry: Game 9.9 Season 6.4
Tony Parker: Game 9.9 Season 29.6
Damon Stoudamire: Game 8.8 Season 13.3
Matt Bonner: Game 8.7 Season 9.9
Michael Finley: Game 6.1 Season 15.7
Fabricio Oberto: Game 2.2 Season 13.3
Jacque Vaughn : Game -2.3 Season 8.3

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders are Camby, Martin, and Najera.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
It was the game of the year for Najera, who was almost 3 times as productive as usual, not even counting his quality defending. Iverson was Iverson plus in this game. The Spurs, despite their obsession with stopping Anthony, despite all of their double teaming and off the ball roughing up of Melo, were able to knock off only 10% from his usual performance level. That right there was pretty much game, set, and match. The Spurs very rarely get such a small return on their player shutdown efforts.

J.R. Smith continued his Amazing 2008 Tour from Fantasyland, by having yet anotherbig game; he was half again as much better than usual.

One of the most amazing things about this game was that, while Najera was huge, 3 of the 4 other front court players were not. Camby and Martin were only slightly more than half as productive as usual, and Kleiza was a little less than half as productive as usual. Seeing Najera far more productive than all but one of the other forwards (all except for Melo) is something that you will rarely, if ever, see again.

PF Duncan and SG Ginobili did about as well as you could expect in a back to back game on the road. SF Bowen was more offensive minded than usual, to go along with his stop Melo efforts, in 25 minutes, and he scored almost double his usual points, so he was twice as productive as usual.

Among the huge list of role players that Popovich played in this game, PF Horry was really the only one who stepped up to any extent.

SF Udoka and PF Bonner were average. C Thomas started at center over C Oberto, but he was 1/5 off his normal and was a key reason why the Spurs lost. Oberto didn’t do much of anything.

PG Stoudamire played fewer minutes than usual, which explains why he was only a little more than half as productive as usual. SG Finley doesn’t have that excuse; he was less than half as productive as usual, so he was a substantial disappointment for the Spurs in this game. PG Vaughn did nothing in 9 minutes.

Despite the long list of disappointments for the Spurs, there was one player who was by far the biggest disappointment of all for them: PG Tony Parker. Just as the Nuggets have three major stars: Iverson, Anthony, and Camby, the Spurs have three mega stars: Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker. But Parker was hardly a mega star in this game. In 29 minutes he was 2/7 for 4 points; he never got to the line once. He made his assist average, 6 assists, but he turned it over 5 times, about twice as much as usual, and he made only 1 steal and 2 rebounds. It could have been even worse, but Parker was only 1/3 as productive as he usually is. Parker created a deficit that, despite Popovich’s massive effort, the Spurs were unable to offset.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-SPURS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Eduardo Najera, Den 1.460
2. Matt Bonner, SA 1.450…Bonner played for only 6 minutes.
3. Manu Ginobili, SA 1.389
4. Tim Duncan, SA 1.336
5. Allen Iverson, Den 1.086
6. J.R. Smith, Den 0.923
7. Carmelo Anthony, Den 0.895
8. Bruce Bowen, SA 0.884
9. Kurt Thomas, SA 0.667
10. Robert Horry, SA 0.660
11. Damon Stoudamire, SA 0.629
12. Marcus Camby, Den 0.600
13. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.557
14. Anthony Carter, Den 0.489
15. Ime Udoka, SA 0.408
16. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.385
17. Tony Parker, SA 0.341
18. Michael Finley, SA 0.265
19. Fabricio Oberto, SA 0.244…Oberto played for only 9 minutes.
20. Chucky Atkins, Den -0.114…Atkins played for only 7 minutes.
21. Jacque Vaughn, SA -0.256…Vaughn played for only 9 minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Eduardo Najera was the best player on the court and was a superstar in this game. Matt Bonner for the Spurs was also a superstar, but only for very limited minutes. The Spurs had 2 players who were star-plus, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili. Allen Iverson was a plain old star. Among the 4 players who were stars or better and who played at least 10 minutes, each team had 2.

J.R. Smith was outstanding for the Nuggets. Anthony for the Nuggets and Bowen for the Spurs were very good.

Thomas, Horry, and Stoudamire were all just mediocre for the Spurs, which was a big disappointment for them. Camby was mediocre for the Nuggets.

For the Nuggets, Kleiza was poor, Carter was very poor, and Martin, not counting his defending, was extremely poor. Martin fouled out late in the game, turned it over 3 times, and failed to get any assists or blocks. On the other hand, he was 4/6 for 8 points and he made 5 rebounds, so it could have been worse. Let’s face it, the Nuggets have no plays planned out in advance to get Martin the ball where he wants it on the court.

The Spurs also had 3 players who were huge disappointments. Udoka was very poor, and both Parker and Finley were extremely poor, with Finley just about a disaster.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

J.R. Smith: +16
Eduardo Najera: +15
Marcus Camby: +10
Linas Kleiza: +10
Allen Iverson: +9
Carmelo Anthony: +6
Kenyon Martin: +0
Anthony Carter: -7

OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS
The two stars from off the bench, Smith and Najera, were the most damaging players as far as the Spurs were concerned. Martin and especially Carter were the weakest Nuggets in terms of how the game changed when they were out on the court.

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 15, Team 0, Anthony 3, Atkins 0, Camby 2, Carter 1, Iverson 2, Kleiza 0, Martin 3, Najera 1, Smith 3

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 20, Anthony 3, Atkins 0, Camby 1, Carter 1, Iverson 1, Kleiza 1, Martin 6, Najera 4, Smith 3

Chucky Atkins played 7 minutes and was 0/1 and 0/1 on 3’s for 0 points.

Kenyon Martin played 33 minutes and was 4/6, 0/1 on 3’s, and 0/2 from the line for 8 points, and he made 5 rebounds and 1 steal.

Anthony Carter played 19 minutes and was 1/2, 1/2 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 5 points, and he made 2 assists and 1 rebound.

Linas Kleiza played 14 minutes and was 0/1 for 0 points, and he made 4 assists and 3 rebounds.

Marcus Camby played 31 minutes and was 4/11 and 0/1 from the line for 8 points, and he made 13 rebounds and 1 assist.

Carmelo Anthony played 39 minutes and was 7/17, 0/1 on 3’s, and 11/16 from the line for 25 points, and he made 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals.

J.R. Smith played 26 minutes and was 6/10 and 3/5 on 3’s for 15 points, and he made 3 steals, 2 assists, and 1 rebound.

Allen Iverson played for virtually the whole game, 44 minutes, and was 10/16, 2/3 on 3’s, and 7/10 from the line for 29 points, and he made 9 assists and 2 rebounds.

Eduardo Najera played 25 minutes and was 8/10, 1/1 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 19 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 assists.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Saturday, March 8 in Salt Lake City to play the Jazz at 7 pm mountain time. Both the Nuggets and the Jazz will be playing on back to back nights.